Top 5 Economics Graphs of the Week - 7 May 2011

This week we take a look at the Purchasing Manager Index data for the US and China. Then there's a review of the US employment report, before an overview of the employment data from New Zealand, we then wrap up with a review of some of the key monetary policy decisions over the past week.

1. US PMI
The US recorded some relatively disappointing numbers, with the manufacturing PMI falling to 60.4 from 61.2 and the non-manufacturing PMI falling to 52.8 from 57.3. Sure both numbers were still in positive territory, and both still in the expansionary indicator space. But much of the weakness was in the wrong spots, e.g. things like non-manufacturing PMI falling -11.4 points, and new export orders also falling -5.5 points and business activity -6 points. While the manufacturing index saw negatives in production -5.2 points and -1.6 on new orders. However within the manufacturing PMI, there was a 8.5 point increase in backlogs and a 6 point increase in new export orders which are both interesting positives that should point to at least a short term continuation of momentum in manufacturing.

2. China PMI
The official CFLP manufacturing PMI came in at 52.9 in April, down slightly from 53.4 in March, and below the Bloomberg consensus of 53.9. The preliminary HSBC/Markit reading was 51.8, the same as the March reading. The readings show the manufacturing sector in China still in expansionary mode, which bodes well for the Chinese economy. But it could well herald another move by the People's Bank of China, particularly given recent comments that it will continue to fight inflation. Next week is China's monthly data release, where inflation is likely to moderate compared to March's 5.4% reading, but it could be an opportune time for the People's Bank of China to do one last interest rate increase.

3. US Nonfarm Payrolls
The US added 244k nonfarm payrolls in April, up slightly versus March's 221k, and compares to 277k in April 2010. The figure brings 2011 net new nonfarm payrolls to 768k YTD. Less meaningfully, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 9.0% from 8.8% in March. So, all up it was a reasonably positive result. The US economy is finally starting to see consistency in jobs added, and this area will likely be a key aspect for a recovery in consumer spending, and thus a key factor in the housing market, as well as general inflation levels. It's likely that job growth will continue to expand in the months ahead, but as identified in the PMI results, there are due downside risks to the US economy, and an early peak in the PMI could well be negative for the jobs outlook.

4. New Zealand Employment Data
New Zealand reported a 30k increase in jobs through the first quarter of this year, with 20k being part time jobs and 10k being full time. The unemployment rate eased slightly to 6.6%, down from 6.7% in Q4 2010, and off of the peak of 7% in Q4 2009. The employment picture in New Zealand is slowly improving, albeit with the negative contribution from the Christchurch earthquake. But with the rugby world cup event soon approaching there should be a noticeable pick up in part-time jobs, at least in the medium term. After that it's more about how the broader economy can gain momentum and leverage off loose monetary policy, high terms of trade, and one-off boosts. The downside is the need for fiscal tightening, with the government likely to announce a more prudent budget in the next couple of weeks as it seeks to sure up government finances and maintain its AA+ credit rating.

5. Monetary Policy Review
On the monetary policy front, the past week was characterized by continued emerging market policy tightening, and continued developed market policy caution. Of the central banks that made decisions on monetary policy settings this week, those that increased were: India +50bps to 7.25%, Philippines +25bps to 4.50%, and Malaysia +25bps to 3.00%. Meanwhile those that held rates were: Australia 4.75%, Romania 6.25%, United Kingdom 0.50%, European Union 1.25%, and the Czech Republic 0.75%. Next week there's interest rate decisions from Poland (11 May) currently 4.00% , Norway (12th May) currently 2.00%, South Africa (12th) currently 5.50%, and South Korea (13th May) currently 3.00%. Most of these banks will probably increase or maintain a hawkish stance.

Summary

So we saw some relatively disappointing PMI results from the US, but with some glimmers of strength still showing through in the manufacturing index. Over in China there was a slight weakening, but generally things were still strong - perhaps allowing scope for another interest rate increase. Meanwhile the US reported a good nonfarm payrolls figure in April, with some promise for continued strength. Over to New Zealand, the March quarter saw a decent employment report, with a positive outlook as the New Zealand economy looks set to gain momentum. On monetary policy the theme of emerging market tightening continued, and is likely to continue for the time being, meanwhile the overriding theme for developed market central banks was policy caution.

Sources
1. US Institute for Supply Management www.ism.ws & Yahoo Finance finance.yahoo.com
2. CFLP www.chinawuliu.com.cn & Markit/HSBC www.markiteconomics.com & Yahoo Finance finance.yahoo.com
3. Bureau of Labour Statistics www.bls.gov
4. Statistics New Zealand www.stats.govt.nz
5. CentralBankNews.info www.centralbanknews.info

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/top5graphs7may11.html

U.S. PMI Results Should Comfort Investors Who Are Long U.S. Equities

The U.S. impressed once again with its manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index results. The main PMI index crept up a further 0.6 to 61.4, the highest level since the early 1980's. New orders added 0.2 to 68.0 and the employment sub-index added 2.8 to 64.5 as more employers signaled higher staff (a net 26% expect higher employment).

http://seekingalpha.com/article/255921-u-s-pmi-results-should-comfort-investors-who-are-long-u-s-equities

China PMI Points to Rising Inflation Risks

China Just saw the release of its two PMI indexes for February; the official CFLP (52.2 vs 52.9 prev), and the HSBC (51.7 vs 54.5). Though both indexes fell, they remained above 50 and generally did not point to any significant slowdown. But the warning signal that did come out of the numbers was for further upside inflation risks.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/255653-china-pmi-points-to-rising-inflation-risks

US & China PMI Review

Both China and the US released their November PMI stats in the past few days, showing relatively strong vitals in both of their manufacturing sectors. Looking first at China, the official PMI rose to 55.2 from 54.7 in October; beyond expectations for 54.8. The HSBC Markit index rose to an 8 month high of 55.3 from 54.8 in October. The standouts in the sub-indices were Production (58.5 vs 57.1), Supplier Delivery (48.9 vs 49.3), New Orders was basically flat, but still strong (58.3 vs 58.2), similarly Employees was little changed (52.0 vs 52.1).


So overall a relatively strong result from China, new orders are still going strong, production activity is picking up, which is all a positive sign given the moves the authorities have taken to tackle inflation and perhaps engineer some sort of soft landing. It's a good sign, because it shows there is still solid fundamental strength in the Chinese economy, i.e. that it can withstand a bit of a slowing.

Meanwhile in the US, the ISM PMI reduced slightly to 56.6 from 56.9, and slightly below consensus 57. But again, the figure is comfortably above the 50 point mark, indicating relatively robust expansion. Looking at the detail however, much of the changes were particularly impressive, production fell off quite a bit, new orders fell, exports fell, and employment was basically flat. So we're in the right space for now, but if this sort of pattern repeats, it will be back to square one for the manufacturing sector.


So the takeaway is that the current state of the US and Chinese manufacturing sectors is relatively positive. China probably more so, and the direction is also probably more promising, and it lines up with the view that China's economy still has a decent amount of wind left in it. The US meanwhile is showing strength, but the wobbles are also showing through - there will be strength but as noted before, the US is in the muddle ages of the recovery, so it's almost certain to be a nonlinear progression.

Sources
Econ Grapher Analytics www.econgrapher.com
CFLP www.chinawuliu.com.cn
Markit/HSBC www.markiteconomics.com
Yahoo Finance finance.yahoo.com
Institute for Supply Management www.ism.ws

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/2dec-uschinapmi.html

Economic Calendar - 28 November 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 28th of November 2010. This week December starts! So the PMI data will start flowing with releases expected from China, Japan, the US, and the EU, among others. There's also some more GDP data out this week with Australia, Canada, and Switzerland announcing their Q3 results. In the US there's the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index, consumer confidence, nonfarm payrolls, and the Beige Book from the Fed.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day	GMT	Country/ Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
SUN	21:45	NZD	Trade Balance [New Zealand dollars] [OCT]	-400M	-532M
SUN	21:45	NZD	Exports [New Zealand dollars] [OCT]	3.31B	3.16B
SUN	21:45	NZD	Imports [New Zealand dollars] [OCT]	3.78B	3.69B
SUN	23:50	JPY	Retail Trade [YoY] [OCT]	0.70%	1.40%
SUN	02:00	NZD	NBNZ Business Confidence [NOV]		23.70
MON	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator [NOV]	1.05	0.98
MON	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence [NOV F]	-10.00	-10.00
MON	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Economic Confidence [NOV]	105.00	104.10
MON	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence [NOV]	2.00	0.00
MON	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Services Confidence [NOV]	9.00	8.00
MON	13:30	CAD	Current Account [BoP] [Canadian dollar] [3Q]	-$15.2B	-$11.0B
MON	23:30	JPY	Jobless Rate [OCT]	5.00%	5.00%
MON	23:50	JPY	Industrial Production [MoM] [OCT P]	-3.20%	-1.60%
MON	23:50	JPY	Industrial Production [YoY] [OCT P]	3.10%	11.50%
MON	00:30	AUD	Current Account Balance [Australian Dollar] [3Q]	-6600M	-5640M
TUE	05:00	JPY	Housing Starts [YoY] [OCT]	9.70%	17.70%
TUE	05:00	JPY	Annualized Housing Starts [OCT]	0.840M	0.837M
TUE	05:00	JPY	Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI [NOV]		47.20
TUE	08:55	EUR	German Unemployment Change [NOV]	-20K	-3K
TUE	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone CPI Estimate [YoY] [NOV]	1.90%	1.90%
TUE	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate [OCT]	10.10%	10.10%
TUE	11:00	EUR	Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. [OCT]	8.40%	8.30%
TUE	13:30	CAD	Gross Domestic Product [MoM] [SEP] [SEP]	0.10%	0.30%
TUE	13:30	CAD	Quarterly GDP Annualized [3Q]	1.50%	2.00%
TUE	14:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 [YoY] [SEP]	1.00%	1.70%
TUE	14:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index [YoY]		3.60%
TUE	14:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City [MoM] s.a. [SEP]	-0.40%	-0.28%
TUE	15:00	USD	Consumer Confidence [NOV]	52.70	50.20
TUE	00:30	AUD	Gross Domestic Product [QoQ] [3Q]	0.50%	1.20%
TUE	00:30	AUD	Gross Domestic Product [YoY] [3Q]	3.40%	3.30%
TUE	01:00	CNY	PMI Manufacturing [NOV]	54.80	54.70
TUE	02:00	NZD	ANZ Commodity Price [NOV]		2.90%
TUE	02:30	CNY	HSBC Manufacturing PMI [NOV]	55.40	54.80
WED	07:00	GBP	Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. [YoY] [NOV]		1.40%
WED	07:00	GBP	Nationwide House Prices s.a. [MoM] [NOV]	-0.40%	-0.70%
WED	08:45	EUR	Italian PMI Manufacturing [NOV]	53.10	53.00
WED	08:50	EUR	French PMI Manufacturing [NOV F]	57.50	57.50
WED	08:55	EUR	German PMI Manufacturing [NOV F]	58.90	58.90
WED	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing [NOV F]	55.50	55.50
WED	09:30	GBP	Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing [NOV]	54.70	54.90
WED	13:30	USD	Non-Farm Productivity [3Q] F	2.30%	1.90%
WED	13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs [3Q F] [3Q] F	-0.20%	-0.10%
WED	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing [NOV]	56.50	56.90
WED	15:00	USD	Construction Spending [MoM] [OCT]	-0.40%	0.50%
WED	19:00	USD	Fed's Beige Book [DEC]
WED	00:30	AUD	Trade Balance [Australian dollar] [OCT]	2000M	1760M
WED	00:30	AUD	Retail Sales s.a. [MoM] [OCT]	0.40%	0.30%
THU	06:45	CHF	Gross Domestic Product [YoY] [3Q]	3.10%	3.40%
THU	06:45	CHF	Gross Domestic Product [QoQ] [3Q]	0.50%	0.90%
THU	08:15	CHF	Retail Sales [Real] [YoY] [OCT]		4.10%
THU	09:30	GBP	Purchasing Manager Index Construction [NOV]	51.30	51.60
THU	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product [QoQ] [3Q]	0.40%	0.40%
THU	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product [YoY] [3Q]	1.90%	1.90%
THU	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Producer Price Index [MoM] [OCT]	0.30%	0.30%
THU	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Producer Price Index [YoY] [OCT]	4.30%	4.20%
THU	12:45	EUR	European Central Bank Rate Decision [DEC]	1.00%	1.00%
THU	15:00	USD	Pending Home Sales [MoM] [OCT]	-1.00%	-1.80%
THU	15:00	USD	Pending Home Sales [YoY] [OCT]		-24.90%
THU	01:00	CNY	China Non-manufacturing PMI [NOV]		60.50
THU	02:30	CNY	China HSBC Services PMI [NOV]		56.40
FRI	05:00	EUR	German Retail Sales [MoM] [OCT]	1.20%	-1.70%
FRI	05:00	EUR	German Retail Sales [YoY] [OCT]	1.30%	0.40%
FRI	08:15	CHF	Consumer Price Index [MoM] [NOV]	0.10%	0.50%
FRI	08:15	CHF	Consumer Price Index [YoY] [NOV]	0.10%	0.20%
FRI	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone PMI Composite [NOV F]	55.40	55.40
FRI	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone PMI Services [NOV F]	55.20	55.20
FRI	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Retail Sales [MoM] [OCT]	0.20%	-0.20%
FRI	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Retail Sales [YoY] [OCT]	1.00%	1.30%
FRI	12:00	CAD	Net Change in Employment [NOV]	20.0K	3.0K
FRI	12:00	CAD	Unemployment Rate [NOV]	7.90%	7.90%
FRI	13:30	USD	Change in Private Payrolls [NOV]	153K	159K
FRI	13:30	USD	Change in Non-farm Payrolls [NOV]	142K	151K
FRI	13:30	USD	Unemployment Rate [NOV]	9.60%	9.60%
FRI	15:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite [NOV]	54.70	54.30
FRI	15:00	USD	Factory Orders [OCT]	-1.00%	2.10%

As noted it will be a big week for PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) data releases. As can be seen in the table, results are due from the US, China, Japan, and throughout the EU. The results will provide a timely update, especially for the China and US results. I will be watching these two in particular very closely and will put out updates throughout the week. Consensus forecasts are picking a bit of an increase in China, and flat in the US, watch this space.

Australia will announce its 3rd quarter GDP result on Tuesday, with consensus picking slightly slower quarterly growth, and stronger year on year growth. Canada will also provide an update on its GDP results as will Switzerland and the wider EU. The EU is not expected to make an large revisions to its Q3 GDP results, but it will be worth a look, particularly on a country-by-country basis.

On the monetary policy front the European Central Bank meets on Thursday, and as usual the rate likely wont be moving, but it will be interesting to see what the ECB says given the rumblings in the EU sovereigns markets. As noted, the US Fed also releases the Beige book economic report this week, which will be interesting in light of the Fed's recent launch of QEII. Elsewhere in the world, Pakistan reviews rates on Monday, Thailand on Wednesday, and Indonesia on Friday; expecting only changes from Pakistan.

Apart from PMI, GDP, and monetary policy, some of the other interest data points out this week include: Japan industrial production (expected to slow), EU CPI and unemployment rate (expect little change), S&P Case-Shiller house price index (expect a monthly decline in Sep), US consumer confidence (expect an improvement), and of course US employment data for November with nonfarm payrolls expected to expand by a similar amount as October, and no change to the unemployment rate.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/28nov-calendar.html

Economic Calendar - 26 September 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 26th of September 2010. This week there's additional GDP iterations due out from the US and UK, and of course given September ends this week (damn this year is going fast!) there will be the PMI stats out, with China and the US being the key ones to watch in that space. Japan also takes to the stage a few times this week with trade data, the quarterly Tankan survey, retail trade, industrial production, employment, and CPI data all due out this week. Of course the other key data in the US to watch will be the Case-Shiller house price index, and both the Conference Board and University of Michigan consumer confidence stats.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day	Time (GMT)	Code	Event/Release	Forecast	Previous
MON		JPY	Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (AUG)	19.0	23.5
MON		JPY	Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (AUG)	17.5	15.7
MON		CNY	Industrial Profits YTD YoY (AUG)		81.6%
MON		EUR	German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP )	1.3%	1.0%
TUE	08:30	GBP	UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q F)	1.7%	1.7%
TUE	08:30	GBP	UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F)	1.2%	1.2%
TUE	13:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (JUL)		147.97
TUE	13:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City (MoM) s.a. (JUL)	-0.10%	0.28%
TUE	13:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUL)	3.10%	4.23%
TUE	14:00	USD	Consumer Confidence (SEP)		53.5
TUE	21:45	NZD	Imports (New Zealand dollars) (AUG)		3.75B
TUE	21:45	NZD	Exports (New Zealand dollars) (AUG)		3.57B
TUE	23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (3Q)		1
TUE	23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (3Q)		3
TUE	23:50	JPY	Tankan Large All Industry Capex (3Q)		4.4%
WED	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (SEP)	0.58	0.61
WED	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (SEP)	-5	-4
WED	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (SEP F)	-11	-11
WED	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (SEP)	101.3	101.8
WED	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Services Confidence (SEP)	7	7
WED	23:50	JPY	Retail Trade (YoY) (AUG)		3.9%
WED	23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG P)
WED	02:00	NZD	NBNZ Activity Outlook (SEP)		25.7
WED	02:00	NZD	NBNZ Business Confidence (SEP)		16.4
THU	07:55	EUR	German Unemployment Change (SEP)	-20K	-17K
THU	12:30	CAD	Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JUL)	-0.1%	0.2%
THU	12:30	USD	Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q T)	1.8%	1.6%
THU	12:30	USD	Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q T)		1.9%
THU	23:30	JPY	Jobless Rate (AUG)		5.2%
THU	23:30	JPY	National CPI (YoY) (AUG)	-0.9%	-0.9%
THU	23:30	JPY	National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG)	-1.5%	-1.5%
THU	01:00	CNY	PMI Manufacturing (SEP)	52.8	51.7
FRI	08:00	EUR	Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (SEP F)	53.6	53.6
FRI	08:30	GBP	PMI Manufacturing (SEP)	53.8	54.3
FRI	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (AUG)	10.0%	10.0%
FRI	12:30	USD	Personal Income (AUG)	0.3%	0.2%
FRI	12:30	USD	Personal Consumption Expenditure (YoY)	1.4%	1.4%
FRI	13:55	USD	U. of Michigan Confidence (SEP F)	67.0	66.6
FRI	14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing (SEP)	54.5	56.3

Starting off with the US data; the US is set to release another iteration of GDP data for Q2 this week, with consensus for the annualised rate to be 1.8%, the UK also releases another iteration of its Q2 GDP results this week; expecting to show 1.2% growth q/q. Probably one of the most important data pieces to watch will be the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index data, prices are forecast to come in more or less flat (for July) as the US housing market continues to be weighed down by the after effects of the housing crash/global financial crisis (synonyms?). The US also has two key measures of the consumer out (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, and Conference Board Consumer Confidence index), expectations are for the figure to come in more or less flat as the US economy muddles along.

Over in Japan there is a smorgasbord of data out this week, with the Tankan index probably being one of the most interesting to see (particularly in terms of outlook). There's also the critical export/import data, retail trade, and industrial production. In terms of inflation (aka deflation), the change in the consumer price index is expected to be more or less flat on a year on year basis, compare to July. But overall this swath of data will provide a good insight as to where the Japanese economy (now the 3rd largest economy behind China and the US by most measures) is and where it's headed.

Possibly one of the most interesting data points out this week will be the manufacturing PMI results from the US and China. The US is expected to see its PMI figure fall from 56.3 in in August to 54.5 in September, while China is expected to continue its rebound from its brief flirtation the 50 point mark; potentially rising to 52.8 from 51.7 in August. Of course for China its best to review both the Markit/HSBC PMI numbers as well as the official CFLP numbers to gain extra insight.

Elsewhere there's inflation data in Germany for September - expected to show a slight increase, New Zealand imports and exports, Euro-Zone confidence indices - broadly expected to remain relatively flat. Then there's business confidence in New Zealand, German unemployment change, Canadian GDP for the month of July, Euro-Zone and UK manufacturing PMI data, and EU unemployment rate (expected to stay around 10%).

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/26sep-calendar.html