Pictorial representation of the US Quantitative Easing program

The US FOMC announced further quantitative easing activity today; it's going to sell about $400B of treasuries with maturities less than 3 years, and buy about $400B securities with maturities greater than 6 years. This will push down long term rates at the expense of short term rates. Economically it may impact on investment decisions at the margin, but the success of the program remains to be seen.

For your convenience a pictorial representation of the Fed's quantitative easing program to date is included below:

Economic Calendar - 11 December 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 12th of December 2010. This week China dominates the data again, with the monthly main economic indicators on Monday, Money supply and lending on Wednesday, and FDI on Thursday. The Fed meeting is also on this week, and on that note CPI, PPI and capacity utilisation data for the US is also due out. There's also the Swiss National Bank interest rate decision and Japan's quarterly Tankan survey.

(More commentary follows the table)

Date	GMT	Country/ Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
SUN	02:00	CNY	Producer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)	5.10%	5.00%
SUN	02:00	CNY	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)	4.70%	4.40%
SUN	02:00	CNY	Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV)	18.60%	18.60%
SUN	02:00	CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)	13.00%	13.10%
SUN	02:00	CNY	Fixed Assets Inv Urban YTD YoY (NOV)	24.40%	24.40%
MON	13:30	CAD	Capacity Utilization Rate (3Q)	75.80%	76.00%
MON	21:00	NZD	REINZ Housing Price Index MoM% (NOV)		-0.90%
MON	21:45	NZD	Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT)	-0.80%	1.60%
MON	21:45	NZD	Retail Sales Ex-Auto (MoM) (OCT)	-1.00%	1.60%
MON	04:30	JPY	Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT F)
MON	04:30	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT F)		-1.80%
MON	04:30	JPY	Capacity Utilization (MoM) (OCT F)		-1.10%
TUE	06:30	EUR	French Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)	1.60%	1.60%
TUE	09:30	GBP	Consumer Price Index (MoM) (NOV)	0.30%	0.30%
TUE	09:30	GBP	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)	3.20%	3.20%
TUE	09:30	GBP	Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)	2.70%	2.70%
TUE	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)	7.60%	5.40%
TUE	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)	1.30%	-0.80%
TUE	13:30	USD	Producer Price Index (MoM) (NOV)	0.50%	0.40%
TUE	13:30	USD	Producer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)	3.30%	4.30%
TUE	13:30	USD	PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (NOV)	1.20%	1.50%
TUE	13:30	USD	Advance Retail Sales (NOV)	0.60%	1.20%
TUE	13:30	USD	Retail Sales Less Autos (NOV)	0.70%	0.40%
TUE	13:30	USD	Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Gas (NOV)	0.60%	0.40%
TUE	19:15	USD	FOMC Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%
TUE	23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (4Q)	3.00	8.00
TUE	23:50	JPY	Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index (4Q)	0.00	2.00
TUE	23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (4Q)	0.00	-1.00
TUE	23:50	JPY	Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook (4Q)	-3.00	-2.00
TUE	23:50	JPY	Tankan Large All Industry Capex (4Q)	2.60%	2.40%
TUE	02:00	CNY	Conference Board China Leading Index
WED	05:00	CNY	Money Supply - M0 (YoY) (NOV)		16.60%
WED	05:00	CNY	Money Supply - M1 (YoY) (NOV)	21.60%	22.10%
WED	05:00	CNY	Money Supply - M2 (YoY) (NOV)	19.20%	19.30%
WED	05:00	CNY	New Yuan Loans (NOV)	550.0B	587.7B
WED	09:30	GBP	Jobless Claims Change (NOV)	-3.0K	-3.7K
WED	13:30	USD	CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (NOV)	0.60%	0.60%
WED	13:30	USD	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)	1.10%	1.20%
WED	14:15	USD	Capacity Utilization (NOV)	75.0.%	74.80%
WED	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (NOV)	0.30%	0.00%
THU	05:00	CNY	Actual FDI (YoY) (NOV)	10.80%	7.90%
THU	08:15	CHF	Industrial Production (YoY) (3Q)	5.00%	7.80%
THU	08:30	CHF	Swiss National Bank Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%
THU	09:00	EUR	Italian Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV F)	1.80%	1.80%
THU	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV)	1.40%	1.20%
THU	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales with Auto Fuel (YoY) (NOV)	0.70%	-0.10%
THU	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (NOV)	1.10%	1.10%
THU	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY)	1.90%	1.90%
THU	13:30	USD	Housing Starts (NOV)	550K	519K
THU	13:30	USD	Building Permits (NOV)	558K	552K
THU	13:30	USD	Current Account Balance (3Q)	-$126.0B	-$123.3B
THU	13:30	USD	Housing Starts (MoM) (NOV)	6.00%	-11.70%
THU	13:30	USD	Housing Starts (NOV)		519K
FRI	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (OCT)	2.5B	2.9B
FRI	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Construction Output (YoY) (OCT)		-8.10%
FRI	15:00	USD	Leading Indicators (NOV)	1.10%	0.50%

As noted China dominates this week, first up is the main economic indicators for November; CPI inflation is expected to come in at 4.70% and given the People's Bank of China raised the RRR again on Friday it will probably be a high figure. Also out is retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment - all expected to come in at similar levels to October. On the monetary stats, M2 & M1 are both expected to grow around 20%, and new loans is likely to come in over 500 billion yuan, pushing through the 7.5 trillion quota. Foreign direct investment is also expected to pick up.

Over to the US, the FOMC meets on Tuesday and there shouldn't be any surprises, as always keep a close eye on what they say, especially around alterations to quantitative easing. Inflation is expected to slow further to 1.1% yoy, on a CPI basis with core flat, on a PPI basis consensus is for further drops, and capacity utilisation likely little changed. So the challenge of raising inflation remains for the Fed, should they be doing more?

Elsewhere, the Tankan survey from Japan will be one to catch as a good gauge on how the Japanese economy is tracking through the 4th quarter. Other notables are UK CPI (expect flat), EU industrial production (slight pick up), US retail sales (core up), Swiss National Bank (no change), US housing starts (slight improvement), and a handful of others (see the table above).

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/12dec-calendar.html

Economic Calendar - 28 November 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 28th of November 2010. This week December starts! So the PMI data will start flowing with releases expected from China, Japan, the US, and the EU, among others. There's also some more GDP data out this week with Australia, Canada, and Switzerland announcing their Q3 results. In the US there's the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index, consumer confidence, nonfarm payrolls, and the Beige Book from the Fed.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day	GMT	Country/ Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
SUN	21:45	NZD	Trade Balance [New Zealand dollars] [OCT]	-400M	-532M
SUN	21:45	NZD	Exports [New Zealand dollars] [OCT]	3.31B	3.16B
SUN	21:45	NZD	Imports [New Zealand dollars] [OCT]	3.78B	3.69B
SUN	23:50	JPY	Retail Trade [YoY] [OCT]	0.70%	1.40%
SUN	02:00	NZD	NBNZ Business Confidence [NOV]		23.70
MON	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator [NOV]	1.05	0.98
MON	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence [NOV F]	-10.00	-10.00
MON	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Economic Confidence [NOV]	105.00	104.10
MON	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence [NOV]	2.00	0.00
MON	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Services Confidence [NOV]	9.00	8.00
MON	13:30	CAD	Current Account [BoP] [Canadian dollar] [3Q]	-$15.2B	-$11.0B
MON	23:30	JPY	Jobless Rate [OCT]	5.00%	5.00%
MON	23:50	JPY	Industrial Production [MoM] [OCT P]	-3.20%	-1.60%
MON	23:50	JPY	Industrial Production [YoY] [OCT P]	3.10%	11.50%
MON	00:30	AUD	Current Account Balance [Australian Dollar] [3Q]	-6600M	-5640M
TUE	05:00	JPY	Housing Starts [YoY] [OCT]	9.70%	17.70%
TUE	05:00	JPY	Annualized Housing Starts [OCT]	0.840M	0.837M
TUE	05:00	JPY	Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI [NOV]		47.20
TUE	08:55	EUR	German Unemployment Change [NOV]	-20K	-3K
TUE	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone CPI Estimate [YoY] [NOV]	1.90%	1.90%
TUE	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate [OCT]	10.10%	10.10%
TUE	11:00	EUR	Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. [OCT]	8.40%	8.30%
TUE	13:30	CAD	Gross Domestic Product [MoM] [SEP] [SEP]	0.10%	0.30%
TUE	13:30	CAD	Quarterly GDP Annualized [3Q]	1.50%	2.00%
TUE	14:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 [YoY] [SEP]	1.00%	1.70%
TUE	14:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index [YoY]		3.60%
TUE	14:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City [MoM] s.a. [SEP]	-0.40%	-0.28%
TUE	15:00	USD	Consumer Confidence [NOV]	52.70	50.20
TUE	00:30	AUD	Gross Domestic Product [QoQ] [3Q]	0.50%	1.20%
TUE	00:30	AUD	Gross Domestic Product [YoY] [3Q]	3.40%	3.30%
TUE	01:00	CNY	PMI Manufacturing [NOV]	54.80	54.70
TUE	02:00	NZD	ANZ Commodity Price [NOV]		2.90%
TUE	02:30	CNY	HSBC Manufacturing PMI [NOV]	55.40	54.80
WED	07:00	GBP	Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. [YoY] [NOV]		1.40%
WED	07:00	GBP	Nationwide House Prices s.a. [MoM] [NOV]	-0.40%	-0.70%
WED	08:45	EUR	Italian PMI Manufacturing [NOV]	53.10	53.00
WED	08:50	EUR	French PMI Manufacturing [NOV F]	57.50	57.50
WED	08:55	EUR	German PMI Manufacturing [NOV F]	58.90	58.90
WED	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing [NOV F]	55.50	55.50
WED	09:30	GBP	Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing [NOV]	54.70	54.90
WED	13:30	USD	Non-Farm Productivity [3Q] F	2.30%	1.90%
WED	13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs [3Q F] [3Q] F	-0.20%	-0.10%
WED	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing [NOV]	56.50	56.90
WED	15:00	USD	Construction Spending [MoM] [OCT]	-0.40%	0.50%
WED	19:00	USD	Fed's Beige Book [DEC]
WED	00:30	AUD	Trade Balance [Australian dollar] [OCT]	2000M	1760M
WED	00:30	AUD	Retail Sales s.a. [MoM] [OCT]	0.40%	0.30%
THU	06:45	CHF	Gross Domestic Product [YoY] [3Q]	3.10%	3.40%
THU	06:45	CHF	Gross Domestic Product [QoQ] [3Q]	0.50%	0.90%
THU	08:15	CHF	Retail Sales [Real] [YoY] [OCT]		4.10%
THU	09:30	GBP	Purchasing Manager Index Construction [NOV]	51.30	51.60
THU	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product [QoQ] [3Q]	0.40%	0.40%
THU	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product [YoY] [3Q]	1.90%	1.90%
THU	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Producer Price Index [MoM] [OCT]	0.30%	0.30%
THU	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Producer Price Index [YoY] [OCT]	4.30%	4.20%
THU	12:45	EUR	European Central Bank Rate Decision [DEC]	1.00%	1.00%
THU	15:00	USD	Pending Home Sales [MoM] [OCT]	-1.00%	-1.80%
THU	15:00	USD	Pending Home Sales [YoY] [OCT]		-24.90%
THU	01:00	CNY	China Non-manufacturing PMI [NOV]		60.50
THU	02:30	CNY	China HSBC Services PMI [NOV]		56.40
FRI	05:00	EUR	German Retail Sales [MoM] [OCT]	1.20%	-1.70%
FRI	05:00	EUR	German Retail Sales [YoY] [OCT]	1.30%	0.40%
FRI	08:15	CHF	Consumer Price Index [MoM] [NOV]	0.10%	0.50%
FRI	08:15	CHF	Consumer Price Index [YoY] [NOV]	0.10%	0.20%
FRI	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone PMI Composite [NOV F]	55.40	55.40
FRI	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone PMI Services [NOV F]	55.20	55.20
FRI	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Retail Sales [MoM] [OCT]	0.20%	-0.20%
FRI	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Retail Sales [YoY] [OCT]	1.00%	1.30%
FRI	12:00	CAD	Net Change in Employment [NOV]	20.0K	3.0K
FRI	12:00	CAD	Unemployment Rate [NOV]	7.90%	7.90%
FRI	13:30	USD	Change in Private Payrolls [NOV]	153K	159K
FRI	13:30	USD	Change in Non-farm Payrolls [NOV]	142K	151K
FRI	13:30	USD	Unemployment Rate [NOV]	9.60%	9.60%
FRI	15:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite [NOV]	54.70	54.30
FRI	15:00	USD	Factory Orders [OCT]	-1.00%	2.10%

As noted it will be a big week for PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) data releases. As can be seen in the table, results are due from the US, China, Japan, and throughout the EU. The results will provide a timely update, especially for the China and US results. I will be watching these two in particular very closely and will put out updates throughout the week. Consensus forecasts are picking a bit of an increase in China, and flat in the US, watch this space.

Australia will announce its 3rd quarter GDP result on Tuesday, with consensus picking slightly slower quarterly growth, and stronger year on year growth. Canada will also provide an update on its GDP results as will Switzerland and the wider EU. The EU is not expected to make an large revisions to its Q3 GDP results, but it will be worth a look, particularly on a country-by-country basis.

On the monetary policy front the European Central Bank meets on Thursday, and as usual the rate likely wont be moving, but it will be interesting to see what the ECB says given the rumblings in the EU sovereigns markets. As noted, the US Fed also releases the Beige book economic report this week, which will be interesting in light of the Fed's recent launch of QEII. Elsewhere in the world, Pakistan reviews rates on Monday, Thailand on Wednesday, and Indonesia on Friday; expecting only changes from Pakistan.

Apart from PMI, GDP, and monetary policy, some of the other interest data points out this week include: Japan industrial production (expected to slow), EU CPI and unemployment rate (expect little change), S&P Case-Shiller house price index (expect a monthly decline in Sep), US consumer confidence (expect an improvement), and of course US employment data for November with nonfarm payrolls expected to expand by a similar amount as October, and no change to the unemployment rate.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/28nov-calendar.html

Economic Calendar: Monetary Policy Mayhem

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 1st of November 2010. This week is monetary policy mayhem week! The main even will be the announcement from the US FOMC as it announces its decision on monetary policy, and more importantly its decision on quantitative easing - this will be closely watched by the world. And then there's also the Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of India, and of course the Bank of Japan - who rescheduled its meeting to follow the Fed's announcement. Other than the monetary policy mayhem there's the usual PMI's from China and the US, and nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

(More commentary follows the table)

Date	GMT	Code	Event	Forecast	Previous
SUN	00:30	AUD	House Price Index (YoY) (3Q)	13.4%	18.4%
SUN	01:00	CNY	PMI Manufacturing (OCT)	53.8	53.8
SUN	02:30	CNY	HSBC Manufacturing PMI (OCT)		52.9
MON	08:55	EUR	German PMI (OCT F)	56.1	56.1
MON	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone PMI (OCT F)	54.1	54.1
MON	09:30	GBP	Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (OCT)	53.0	53.4
MON	12:30	USD	Personal Income (SEP)	0.3%	0.5%
MON	12:30	USD	Personal Spending (SEP)	0.4%	0.4%
MON	12:30	USD	Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY)	1.4%	1.4%
MON	14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing (OCT)	54.0	54.4
MON	15:00	JPY	Bank of Japan Minutes
MON	03:30	AUD	Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (NOV	4.50%	4.50%
TUE	01:00	CNY	China Non-manufacturing PMI (OCT)
TUE	02:30	CNY	China HSBC Services PMI (OCT)
TUE		INR	Reserve Bank of India	5.25%	5.00%
WED	14:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (OCT)	53.5	53.2
WED	18:15	USD	FOMC Decision (NOV)	0.25%	0.25%
WED	21:45	NZD	Employment Change (QoQ) (3Q)	0.5%	-0.3%
WED	21:45	NZD	Unemployment Rate (3Q)		6.8%
THU	08:15	CHF	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)	0.3%	0.3%
THU	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)	4.2%	3.6%
THU	11:00	GBP	Bank of England Rate Decision (NOV)	0.50%	0.50%
THU	11:45	EUR	European Central Bank Rate Decision (NOV)	1.00%	1.00%
THU	12:00	GBP	BOE Asset Purchase Target (NOV)	200B	200B
THU	14:00	CAD	Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (OCT)		70.3
THU		JPY	BOJ Target Rate Decision (NOV)		0.10%
THU	00:30	AUD	RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement (NOV)
FRI	11:00	CAD	Net Change in Employment (OCT)	10.0K	-6.6K
FRI	11:00	CAD	Unemployment Rate (OCT)	8.0%	8.0%
FRI	12:30	USD	Change in Private Payrolls (OCT)	80K	64K
FRI	12:30	USD	Change in Non-farm Payrolls (OCT)		-95K
FRI	12:30	USD	Unemployment Rate (OCT)	9.6%	9.6%
FRI	19:00	USD	Consumer Credit (SEP)	-3.0B	-$3.3B

As noted the monetary policy mayhem begins on Monday with the RBA announcing its decision - and it will be a close call, but likely a hold. Then on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of India is likely to add another 25bps to its interest rate as inflation heats up. Then of course on Wednesday the Fed makes the announcement the markets have all been waiting for - the quantitative easing campaign, by now it's almost a foregone conclusion, so it would be a major disappointment to the markets if there were no such announcement. Then on Thursday the ECB and BoE meet, it's a given they'll hold interest rates, but there could be remote scope for the BoE to expand its asset purchase program. And then the wildcard comes - Japan; the BoJ strategically brought forward its next meeting to just after the Fed's announcement - so it wouldn't be unreasonably to expect some kind of counter moves if the US dollar gets devalued to any significant degree.

And of course the October PMI results will start rolling out this week, with China taking the stage first, and consensus is for little change, but this is a figure to watch closely, it has begun to rebound but let's see if its noise or a trend. Then the US will release its figures, and consensus is for a slight drop, which should be no surprise - the inventory cycle has basically run its course, and consumers aren't racing to the shops, so it's likely US manufacturing will be on the go-slow.

The other major data piece will be US nonfarm payrolls for October, which will probably show the same story of a negative or lackluster headline result due to government related tightening and census firing, but the private payrolls will probably show a rise. Also in employment data is Canada, expected to show a small improvement, and New Zealand, also expected to show a small improvement. The other interesting data bits will be US consumer credit data for Sep (likely to be little changed), Australian house prices, PMI indices from a few other countries, and EU PPI.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/1nov-calendar.html