U.S. Housing and Confidence: Good, Bad or Ugly?

The U.S. just released two critical data points on the state of the consumer. The Consumer Confidence reading for March dropped 8.6 points to 63.4 from 72 in February (market consensus for 64). Meanwhile the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite house price index dropped 3.0% year on year in January, or -0.2% month on month. So at first glance, both results were reasonably bad, but before we jump to conclusions, let's take a quick look at the details.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/260757-u-s-housing-and-confidence-good-bad-or-ugly

Top 5 Economics Graphs of the Week - 2 October 2010

This week we review the apparent rebound in the Chinese manufacturing sector, followed by a look at the quarterly Tankan survey results from Japan. Then we look at the US PMI results which show grim signs; as do the housing and confidence figures. Finally we wrap up with a look at some other statistics from Japan in this top 3 economies of the world version of the top 5 graphs of the week.

1. China PMI: Continued Rebound
China saw a continued rebound in its manufacturing sector, as indicated by the PMI results which had the official index rising to 53.8 from 51.7 in August, and the HSBC index also rising from 51.9 to 52.9. The rebound in the main index is a promising sign, indeed the new orders index rose to 56.3 from 53.1 while the export-order index rose only to 52.8 from 52.2. Also of note in the data was the rise in the input price index component, which rose to 65.3 from 60.5. Seasonal factors aside (it is supposed to be seasonally adjusted), i.e. filling orders for Christmas, the results show an end to the drop in the index, and possibly a new revival as the Chinese economy continues to expand and personal incomes rise.

2. Japan Tankan: Gradual Recovery
Another positive, but somewhat less so, was the Tankan September quarter survey results from Japan. The overall index improved to -10 from -15 in the 2nd quarter this year. Into the detail, the standout was medium-sized manufacturers, who saw a 10 point rise from -6 to positive 4, similarly, large manufacturers solidified their recovery, adding 7 points to positive 8. So in that negatives were getting less negative, and prospects were improving for the 3rd quarter, it was a good result. However the December 2010 forecast figures were much less optimistic, with most firms expecting a reasonably deterioration in conditions. So the story is basically, small improvement, outlook not great.

3. US PMI: Grim Signs
The US also released its PMI results this week, showing what appears to be a continued turn in prospects. If you recall, there was a time when people were asking "what will happen when the inventory cycle and stimulus runs out?" and here's your answer, not a whole lot really for the US. The PMI index fell from 56.3 to 54.4 with the only real strength coming from an increase in the prices sub-index from 61.5 to 70.5, a significant increase - stagflation anyone? All the other indexes that you usually want to see rise didn't, so not a great result from the US.

4. US Housing and Confidence
Staying with the US, and thinking about gloomy economic prospects, there's the US housing market and consumer confidence data details that came out this week. The US housing market continued to flat-line (no surprises there), and will likely do so for an extended period. Meanwhile the US consumer also basically flat-lined, if not deteriorated a little. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index came out much worse than expected at 48.5 vs 53.5 in August, the present situation index decreased to 23.1 from 24.9 and the expectations index fell to 65.4 from 72 in August. So overall, while it's still not panic time, things are just not good, and they will continue to muddle along because of the damage caused by the excesses everyone got into that caused the financial crisis.

5. Japan Inflation and Unemployment
Back to Japan, there was some slight improvements in the inflation and employment situation with the unemployment rate dipping to 5.1% from 5.2%, and the deflation rate improving slightly to -1.0% from -1.1% in July. So onward with the gradual export driven recovery in Japan - "Yentervention" or not. So it seems that some progress might be getting through from the Bank of Japan in its desperate struggle to stem deflation and stimulate the economy, but there are still serious challenges for the Japanese economy, at least it has China as its neighbor and trade partner, otherwise, muddle along too.

Summary

This week we looked at the 3 largest economies as they release indicators on the prospects of their manufacturing and business sectors. China showed pretty good results all round, Japan showed slight improvement, and the US did not impress with its PMI results. The story of continued economic growth (catch up) and expansion in China remains intact, and the story of a long hard slog in the US and Japan also remains intact.

Japan and the US are the real spots to watch as the global recovery unfolds, though emerging markets are coming up fast and strong, it is these two pillars of stability that will drive or fail to drive much of the growth in the near term. Unfortunately things are still subdued in the US as it goes through the muddle ages of the recovery, and even Japan is showing potential warning signs of a double-dip.

Go emerging markets, hang in there developed markets...

Sources
1. CFLP www.chinawuliu.com.cn & Markit/HSBC www.markiteconomics.com & Yahoo Finance finance.yahoo.com
2. Bank of Japan www.boj.or.jp
3. Institute for Supply Management www.ism.ws
4. Standard & Poors www.standardandpoors.com & Conference Board www.conference-board.org
5. Trading Economics www.tradingeconomics.com

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/top5graphs2oct.html

US Housing and Confidence Review

Similar story to last time, US consumer confidence in July fell worse than expected. The conference board index, designed to measure consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations of future conditions, came in at 50.4 vs consensus for 51.0 and previous of 52.9. The drop was led by a fall in the expectations component with that sub-index falling to 66.6 from 72.7 in June, meanwhile the present situation sub-index fell to 26.1 from 26.8. Overall the index is being held down by a poor labor market, and still tough economic conditions.


Over to the housing front, the May S&P Case-Shiller home price index on the 20-city side showed a 3.9% rise year on year (vs 4.1% in April), and chalked up a 0.5% monthly gain (vs 0.6% in April). The 10-city index showed a 1.2% gain month on month (previous 0.7%), and 5.4% year on year (previous 4.6%). Much of the year on year gains are simply driven by the low base comparator, but there is also the fact that the 3-month moving average aspect captures some of the tax credit effect. As you can see in the chart below, the nascent rebound will surely descend into a double dip of sorts - of course it will not be as severe, but there will not be sustained house price increases until the fundamentals are there to sustain and support it.


So what do these data points collectively point to? The obvious first; things are still not good, the house price slump is miles from being recouped - indeed, the recent rebound we're seeing could well give way to a housing double dip, given there are no real fundamentals to support a sustained price increase. On consumer front, obviously people are affected by the housing market (and of course vice versa!), consumer confidence is being held down by the stagnant housing market, the feeble labor market (with persistently high unemployment), and of course austerity imperative - not only on the government front, but on the personal front. Austerity is the name of the game, because who know what will come next!

Sources
Econ Grapher Analytics www.econgrapher.com
Conference Board www.conference-board.org
Standard & Poors www.standardandpoors.com

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/28july-ushousecon.html

US Housing and Confidence Review

Markets took a dive today as the US consumer confidence numbers disappointed; showing a reading of 52.9 vs consensus 63.3, and down sharply on the May reading of a downward revised 62.7, as consumers adjusted their views slightly on the back of a still tepid jobs market.


But it's not really time to hit the panic button yet, a lot of commentators are running around saying we are on the cusp of the next great depression, but at least in terms of the consumer confidence numbers there's not really anything to worry about. It just reflects the reality that things are hard, jobs are still growing relatively slowly, the housing market is going sideways (if not down), and the priority is squarely on recovering and de-leveraging; though things may be bad they are not dire, yet.

There is a tail risk that things could get a lot worse, there is a reasonable probability that things will slow further, and then there's a pretty good chance that things will carry on just fine and that the gradual economic recovery will continue even as stimulus measures run their course (though note, a lot of the stimulus plan is still unspent). Indeed on the stimulus front, the rhetoric from Washington seems to be more for additional stimulus than fiscal austerity/responsibility.

Speaking of tail risks, the US economic Achilles heel; the housing market, showed further signs of not really doing much at all in April. The 20-city composite index was up 0.4% month on month, and 4% year on year. This is still an area of vulnerability as the potential for further defaults rise given the tough conditions (as confirmed by the confidence numbers), and slow or no income growth puts a cap on demand.

There is a non-zero probability that the US government will provide additional stimulus targeted at the housing market to put a floor under prices; especially with congressional elections in November. If not the path of the housing market will likely be dependent on lending rates staying low, and jobs growth picking up appreciably - neither of which are exceedingly likely outcomes.


So what are the key points? I have presented both a positive and a negative spin on the data; there is the reassurance - or seeing the numbers as what they really mean. But there is also the recognition that things could get worse; but that they will likely carry on business as usual; and that the gradual - yet fragile economic recovery will continue. In other words, don't panic yet, this is what a recovery from such a deep and structurally meaningful recession should look like. At least save your panic for when or if the tail risks materialize!

Sources
Econ Grapher Analytics www.econgrapher.com
Conference Board www.conference-board.org
Standard & Poors www.standardandpoors.com

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/30june-ushousecon.html

Economic Calendar - 10 May 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 10th of May 2010. The main event out this week, and a topical one at that, is Euro Zone GDP for Q1 2010 on Wednesday. Another key set of data will be the monthly update from China on lending, money supply, trade, inflation, industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales. In the retail sales space there's also an update from the US and New Zealand. There's also the Bank of England meeting on Monday, which may be interesting given the Euro context.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day	Time (GMT)	Code	Event/Release	Forecast	Previous
		CNY	New Loans		511B
		CNY	M2 Money Supply y/y	22.1%	22.5%
		CNY	Trade Balance	-0.6B	-7.2B
MON	1:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence (APR)		16
MON	6:00	EUR	German Trade Balance (euros) (MAR)	14.0B	12.6B
MON	6:00	EUR	German Current Account (euros) (MAR)	13.5B	9.1B
MON	8:30	EUR	Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAY)	-1	2.5
MON	10:00	CNY	Consumer Price Index y/y	2.7%	2.4%
MON	10:00	CNY	Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y	26.1%	26.4%
MON	10:00	CNY	Industrial Production	18.5%	18.1%
MON	10:00	CNY	Retail Sales y/y	18.2%	18.0%
MON	11:00	GBP	Bank of England Interest Rate Decision	0.5%	0.5%
MON	11:00	GBP	Bank of England Asset Purchase Target	200B	200B
MON	12:15	CAD	Housing Starts (APR)	200.0K	197.3K
MON	22:45	NZD	NZ Card Spending (MoM) (APR)		2.1
TUE		GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate (APR)		0.4%
TUE	8:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)	0.6%	-0.1%
TUE	9:30	AUD	2010-11 Federal Budget Report
TUE	11:30	USD	NFIB Small Business Optimism (APR)		86.8
WED	5:00	JPY	Leading Index (MAR P)		98.5
WED	6:00	EUR	German Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	1.2%	-1.7%
WED	6:45	EUR	French Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	1.4%	-0.3%
WED	8:00	EUR	Italian Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	0.1%	-3.0%
WED	8:30	GBP	Jobless Claims Change (APR)	-20.0K	-32.9K
WED	9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	0.2%	0.0%
WED	9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	0.5%	-2.2%
WED	9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)	1.0%	0.9%
WED	9:30	GBP	Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
WED	11:00	USD	Bloomberg Global Confidence (MAY)		67.57
WED	12:30	CAD	International Merchandise Trade (CAD) (MAR)	1.6B	1.4B
WED	12:30	USD	Trade Balance (MAR)	-$39.9B	-$39.7B
WED	22:30	NZD	Business NZ Performance of Mfg Index (APR)		56.3
WED	23:01	GBP	Nationwide Consumer Confidence (APR)	73	72
WED	23:50	JPY	Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (MAR)		778.0B
THU		JPY	Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (APR)		47
THU	1:30	AUD	Employment Change (APR)	22.5K	19.6K
THU	1:30	AUD	Unemployment Rate (APR)	5.3%	5.3%
THU	8:00	EUR	ECB Publishes Monthly Report
THU	22:00	NZD	REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (APR)		1.7%
THU	22:45	NZD	Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)	1.1%	-0.6%
THU	22:45	NZD	Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q)	0.3%	1.0%
FRI	12:30	USD	Advance Retail Sales (APR)	0.3%	1.6%
FRI	12:30	USD	Retail Sales Less Autos (APR)	0.5%	0.6%
FRI	13:15	USD	Industrial Production (APR)	0.6%	0.1%
FRI	13:55	USD	U. of Michigan Confidence (MAY P)	73.5	72.2

Starting off with the main event, EU GDP, the consensus forecast is for 0.2% q/q vs a previous 0%, while the year on year figures is expected to creep up 0.5% into positive territory vs -0.3% in Q4 2009. Of the big hitters, Germany is expected to show growth at 1.2% vs previous -1.7%, France is expected to grow 1.4% vs -0.3% previous, and Italy 0.1% vs -3.0%. Overall the results will likely be much improved - but given the current backdrop - the improvement could end up being short lived.

The other key one to watch will be the China data, with key monetary, activity, and prices data giving fresh insight into the state of Chinese overheating. The April figures are broadly expected to be roughly in line with the March numbers, but any surprises will be worth noting indeed, especially in the inflation area. New loans will also be interesting to check in the context of the moves taken by the Chinese authorities to clamp down on excessive loan growth.

On the monetary policy front the Bank of England will be meeting to review interest rates and the asset purchase program on Monday. Not that politics should play into central banking, now that the election is over there may be more flexibility for the BoE to make any moves. However, given the concerns about contagion and sovereign risks in the Euro Area, there most certainly wont be any tightening moves.

On that note, it is expected that a group of Finance Ministers from the EU will be establishing a firm agreement for a backstop facility to "...defend the euro, whatever it takes,”. Just what form this takes will be interesting, and will have a huge impact on financial market and economic confidence. If you want proof of that just check last week what happened when the ECB did nothing as fears of contagion grew and the Euro came under attack. These are indeed interesting times.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, stay tuned for updates... and let's be careful out there!

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/10may-calendar.html

US House Prices and Confidence update

Here's a short sharp update on the US housing market, consumer confidence, and the direction of the US economy. The US S&P Case Shiller 20 Cities house price index rose 3% year on year in February, and was basically flat month on month. The figures indicate the housing market is still confused somewhat; consolidating before the next move... which could well be more sideways movement.


On a year over year basis (seasonally adjusted), San Francisco (12%), San Diego (7.6%), LA (5.4%), and Washington DC (5.1%) are up the most; while Las Vegas (-14.6%), Tampa (-6%), Seattle (-5.6%), Portland (-4.7%), are the laggards. The US housing market could yet stand to go through a prolonged period of stabilization or consolidation before returning to growth; thus it remains a key vulnerability for the US economic recovery.

Moving on to the other key data point; US consumer confidence showed a slight pick up coming in at 57.9 vs previous 52.5, and consensus for 53.5. On components the expectations index picked up to 77.4 from 70.4 in a promising move, likewise the current conditions index rose to 28.6 from 25.2. The move is also a milestone, being the highest since September 2008, which says a bit.

Outlook
In terms of implications for outlook, it depends how you read it. There are two obvious ways of looking at it; the first is that both the pattern of house prices and consumer confidence are consistent with a cyclical recovery, and that the recent uptick we are seeing in both of them points to an eventual cyclical economic recovery or rebound.

The other says on both counts we're basically set to see a prolonged period of consolidation and economic healing; consumer confidence remains low and the housing market remains subdued; as people spend less, pay down debt, try to get their jobs back, and rebuild wealth.

It's still hard to say just which one it is yet, but whichever one it turns out to be will have a huge bearing on the medium to long term pattern of growth in the US economy: structural recovery or cyclical recovery? sustainable recovery or a return to the vicious cycle?

Sources
Econ Grapher Analytics www.econgrapher.com
Conference Board www.conference-board.org
Standard & Poors www.standardandpoors.com

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/28apr-ushousecon.html

Top 5 Graphs: US Sees Positive Signs, But How Real Are They?

This week we look at the US trade balance trending back to normal, US CPI/inflation figures tending sideways, a pick up in US retail sales, further improvement in US industrial production, and a slight tapering off of US consumer sentiment. So the focus is completely on the US this week which is fitting given our update on the Chinese economy a few days ago following their big economic data release. So this week you've got the top 5 graphs for the 2 biggest economies.

1. US Trade Balance - trending back to normal
The US trade balance figure came in at -$39.7 billion for February, slightly worse than consensus of -$39 billion, and worse than January's -$37.3 billion; and much worse than -$27 billion in Feb 2009. However, as bad as it is to have these imbalances, and as much as the US needs to really turn this around for a more sustainable recovery, this is actually somewhat of a positive figure. Though much of the increase was related to oil imports, there was also increase the non-oil aspects, so that reflects an improvement in demand (though likely still related to inventory cycle). This one will be interesting to watch if the Chinese change the yuan policy - will it get worse? or will spending react? The answer to both is probably yes - but with different timing.

2. US Consumer Price Index - inflation taking a breather
The CPI index grew 2.3% y/y, sending headline inflation basically sideways; while core inflation fell further to 1.1%. How to read this part of the cycle is that things are basically taking a breather. My take is that this is a short period of consolidation before an eventual picking up in inflationary forces. There are a few leading indicators pointing to an increase in inflation, and stimulatory conditions from monetary and fiscal policy - compared with potentially redundant capacity will eventually see this picking up again. The yuan policy again will be a wild card for this - a significant increase might even see price inflation driven up by higher import costs.

3. US Retail Sales - growing good, but...
US retail sales grew 1.6% month on month in March; greater than the expected 1.2% and previous 0.5% growth; placing it up 7.1% year over year. Stripping out Autos it was up 0.6% vs expected 0.5% and previous 0.8%. The key message is that there is some strength going on in US consumer spending at the moment. And though on absolute terms retail sales are still below trend, they are making some progress towards a return to trend. What this says in some sense is that there seems to be evidence of a cyclical recovery coming through - it's not necessarily a good thing to see US consumer spending picking up; because the US consumer on average doesn't save enough. If this trend continues then it will just be a back to normal recovery; leaving the same vulnerabilities in place.

4. US Industrial Production - manufacturing expands
Unsurprisingly US industrial production further expanded in March. On a month over month basis it crept up only 0.1% (consensus was for 0.8%), vs Feb 0.1%. However year over year it picked up to 4% (-12.5% in 2009) from 2.2% in Feb. So there is some comparison bias in the yearly figures, but the strengthening does line up with other things, for example in the chart below ISM manufacturing PMI is overlayed and both indicators are consistent with expansion in US manufacturing (what's left of it). Much of this will be related to inventory building, but some may be related to increased consumer spending and export demand (e.g. China).

5. Reuters/University of Michigan US Consumer Sentiment - tapering off
Consumer sentiment came in at 69.5 well off consensus 75 and previous 73.6, but unremarkably up from 63 in April last year. Granted this is only the mid-month update, it does send some warning signs; especially for those who may be expecting a big rise in April payrolls (maybe unlikely given indications from this). The biggest drop was from expectations (62.3 vs Mar 67.9), but current conditions also fell (80.7 vs 82.4). Even eyeballing the chart below shows a trend of tapering off after a period of recovery. The main message is that the recovery is there, but it's not strong and there are risks, and of course - as we see now in consumer sentiment; it may be quite stop-start in nature.

Summary
So where does this leave us? Let's re-cap: there's a worsening trade balance which is mostly due to oil but reflects a little increase in demand; there's inflation basically going sideways or consolidating but with risks to the upside; there's consumer spending showing a marked pick-up but how strong remains to be seen; industrial production is improving but probably still mostly due to inventory building but maybe some iota of fundamental strength; and consumer sentiment is tapering off a bit showing people are still perhaps a little confused about where things are going.

These messages are all pretty much consistent with a fragile and artificially stimulated recovery that most agree is underway. There is a pretty high probability that the recovery wont be structural, rather it will be cyclical (back to normal). Inflation will eventually pick up again, and consumers will go back to their old habits. So in the end, as noted, there are positive signs, but are they really all that positive?

Sources:
Econ Grapher Analytics www.econgrapher.com
Trading Economics www.tradingeconomics.com
US Bureau of Labour Statistics www.bls.gov
Reuters/Univesity of Michigan customers.reuters.com
US Census Department www.census.gov

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/top5graphs17apr.html

US Retail Sales: February Surprise

US Retail Sales surprised in February, beating concerns about the affects of the cold snap and icy weather and a poor labour market; coming in above consensus. In February 2010 retail sales climbed 0.3% month on month to US$355,546 million, against consensus estimates for a fall of -0.2% and January's growth rate of 0.5%.

Core retail sales (less autos) also beat consensus with 0.8% against an expected 0.0%. Headline and core retail sales were up 3.5% and 3.7% respectively. The winning categories were electronics & appliances stores, miscellaneous store retailers, food & beverages, and sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.


But one must keep in mind that the base comparison period is much lower than in previous years. The chart below shows on the three major counts of retail sales that neither of them are near were they were prior to the crisis. So the message is recovery; yes, but certainly below trend. But there is momentum there with 4 positive annual growth rates in a row, and 2 positive monthly growth rates in a row.


The outlook for retail spending in the US is likely to be relatively subdued with plenty of upside and downside surprises as the recovery proceeds in a stop-start manner. As consumer lending and credit remains reasonably lackluster, and the deleveraging cycle continues to play through, the growth potential here will likely also be capped. But there are positive factors at play too, for example the hiring for the 2010 10-year census may provide some respite to the US consumer.

As previously noted though, we're still looking for the "new mix" or "new normal" to play out with consumer spending taking a backseat to savings, business investment, and net exports as drivers of a sustainable and structural recovery in the US.

Sources:
US Census Bureau www.census.gov Econ Grapher Analytics www.econgrapher.com

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/13marusretals.html

Lending, Saving, and Consumption - A tale of US deleveraging...

Here's a brief update on where US bank lending is at. The theme of the day for this is basically deleveraging. Bank credit is on most counts still declining on a year on year % basis, a weekly net new loans basis, and on an absolute basis. It's still very much a story of no credit growth.

It's not a surprise either, lending conditions are still pretty harsh, there are still bank failures popping up, and consumers and businesses are still (but maybe to a lesser degree?) struggling - so finding it hard to obtain financing, or even service existing levels of financing.

To that end there's bound to be the influence of plain and simple write-offs. Bad loans = detractor to loan growth.

There's probably also an element of debt aversion in some cases, where people have been left underwater and truly stressed to the limit with asset price declines, employment loss and income pressures. IMF studies have even pointed to a period of higher savings rates following periods of high labour market and asset market volatility.

So it's also unsurprising and even positive to see that the US personal savings rate has recently spiked upwards (also included a chart on this below FYI). Positive because a sustained increase in the savings rate will support a more balanced and structural recovery - and due to wealth effects will see stronger future growth - but be ware it will also mean that in GDP growth numbers consumer spending will probably come through later in the process.

US Aggregate Lending
The below chart has total lending by US banks broken into C&I, real estate, Consumer, and other. The points to note are the previously mentioned declines in absolute values. It's also an interesting chart to look at in terms of the make up of total lending...


Commercial & Industrial
Business lending is still deeply in the negative, you can hardly even call the below stablising/bottoming out. But ultimately this is really the one you want to see turning up the most (given the previously touted thesis of the consumer-coming-last-recovery).


Real Estate
This one had been turning upward thanks to the impulse of the home buyer subsidies basically bringing a bit of demand forward and probably soaking up all the good credit risks. Now its back into declines (as are, coincidentally, house prices).


Consumer
This is different from the much looked at consumer credit figures, this is consumer lending (higher frequency data from US Fed aggregate bank stats). This lines up to a T with the consumer deleveraging thesis...


US Personal Savings Rate
Thanks to "fred" we've got the US personal savings rate here showing a marked turnaround - we can really only hope that this trend continues for the US consumer. I mean really it's like the US consumer has collectively had a heart attack and survived - they've had the wake-up call and now they need to realise they have to change their habits. Like diet and exercise, a lift in the savings rate is just what the doctor ordered.


Live long and prosper US consumer, live long and prosper.

Sources:
1. http://www.federalreserve.gov/
2. http://www.federalreserve.gov/
3. http://www.federalreserve.gov/
4. http://www.federalreserve.gov/
5. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/PSAVERT.txt

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/usloans4mar.html