Economic Calendar - 19 Dec 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 19th of December 2010. This week there's New Zealand Q3 GDP results, as well as further revisions to the Q3 GDP results from the UK and US, New Zealand also puts out its 3rd quarter current account data. On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan will review policy, and the RBA and BoE will release minutes from their recent policy meetings. Elsewhere there's Canadian CPI, Japanese exports, and US consumer sentiment numbers.

(More commentary follows the table)

Date	GMT	Country/ Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
MON	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (OCT)		-9.2B
MON	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (OCT)		-13.1B
MON	15:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (DEC A)	-9.00	-9.40
MON	21:45	NZD	New Zealand Net Migration SA (NOV)		680.00
MON	00:30	AUD	Reserve Bank's Board December Minutes
MON	04:30	JPY	All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (OCT)	-0.20%	-0.80%
TUE	05:00	JPY	Bank of Japan Rate Decision (DEC)	0.10%	0.10%
TUE	07:15	CHF	Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (NOV)		2.10B
TUE	09:30	GBP	Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (NOV)	12.3B	2.4B
TUE	09:30	GBP	Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (NOV)	16.8B	9.8B
TUE	12:00	CAD	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)	2.30%	2.40%
TUE	12:00	CAD	Bank Canada CPI Core (YoY) (NOV)	1.60%	1.80%
TUE	13:30	CAD	Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT)	0.50%	0.60%
TUE	13:30	CAD	Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (OCT)	0.70%	0.40%
TUE	21:45	NZD	Current Account Balance (3Q)	-2.304B	-0.880B
TUE	21:45	NZD	Current Account Deficit-GDP Ratio (3Q)	-3.40%	-3.00%
TUE	23:50	JPY	Merchandise Trade Balance Total (NOV)	¥481.7B	¥821.3B
TUE	23:50	JPY	Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (NOV)	¥626.3B	¥578.5B
TUE	23:50	JPY	Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (NOV)	10.30	7.80
TUE	23:50	JPY	Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (NOV)	9.00	8.80
WED	09:30	GBP	Total Business Investment (QoQ) (3Q F)	-0.20%	-0.20%
WED	09:30	GBP	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q F)	0.80%	0.80%
WED	09:30	GBP	Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q F)	2.80%	2.80%
WED	09:30	GBP	Bank of England Minutes (DEC)
WED	09:30	GBP	Total Business Investment (YoY) (3Q F)	4.60%	4.60%
WED	13:30	USD	Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (3Q T)	2.80%	2.50%
WED	13:30	USD	Gross Domestic Product Price Index (3Q T)	2.30%	2.30%
WED	15:00	USD	House Price Index (MoM) (OCT)	-0.10%	-0.70%
WED	15:00	USD	Existing Home Sales (NOV)	4.75M	4.43M
WED	21:45	NZD	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q)	0.10%	0.20%
WED	21:45	NZD	Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q)	1.80%	1.90%
THU	13:30	CAD	Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (OCT)	0.30%	-0.10%
THU	13:30	USD	Personal Income (NOV)	0.30%	0.50%
THU	13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders (NOV)		-3.30%
THU	13:30	USD	Durables Ex Transportation (NOV)		-2.70%
THU	13:30	USD	Personal Spending (NOV)	0.50%	0.40%
THU	13:30	USD	Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator		1.30%
THU	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 18)	420K	420K
THU	13:30	USD	Personal Consumption Expenditure Core	0.90%	0.90%
THU	14:55	USD	U. of Michigan Confidence (DEC F)	74.50	74.20
THU	15:00	USD	New Home Sales (NOV)	300K	283K

As noted, New Zealand will release its Q3 GDP results this week, with expectations for a slight slowing of growth to about 0.10% q/q or 1.8% y/y. The US and UK will also announce further revisions to their Q3 GDP results, with the US expected to slightly revise up its results. Canada will also release its monthly GDP stats for October.

On Monetary Policy the Bank of Japan is set to meet early this week, with no expectations for interest rate changes, and a low chance of other adjustments - but it will be worth keeping an eye on as the Tankan results were less than impressive. There's also the monetary policy meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England. The Bank of England notes will be worth a look as the BoE does not include much details in their initial rate announcements.

Elsewhere, there's CPI data due out of Canada, with a slight slowing of inflation expected; then there's Japan merchandise trade data for November with improvements expected; the US has existing home sales and new home sales data out; and the US also has the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey results out for December.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/19dec-calendar.html

Japan Tankan Weakens - Double Dip?

The Bank of Japan just released the quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment; revealing the all companies index had fallen to -11 from -10. Large manufacturers declined to 5 from 8, and large non-manufacturers fell to 1 from 2. Small manufacturers improved to -12 from -14 and small non-manufacturers fell to -22 from -21. Thus overall the results were relatively negative, reflecting the challenging economic conditions in Japan. Companies are finding the dual effects of fading stimulus and a stronger Yen to be having a negative impact.


So the question is, what does this mean? Does this herald a double dip for the Japanese economy? Well growth could well be negative in Q4, but in terms of a second recession, there is the possibility. But the Bank of Japan and the government may well react to worsening data like this by pumping in more money, or undertaking other stimulatory moves such as reducing the corporate tax rate. But with the worsening data it's little wonder that Japanese stock market valuations are below historical averages. For those that are fans of mean reversion, there is the caution that these are not normal times. But if the government and bank of Japan can get it right, and the tides go in favor of Japan, then Japanese equities could be worth considering.

Sources
Econ Grapher Analytics www.econgrapher.com
Bank of Japan www.boj.or.jp

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/15dec-japan.html

Top 5 Economics Graphs of the Week - 30 October 2010

This week we review the Q3 GDP results from the UK and US, then look at the recent data on the US housing market and consumer confidence. Then we examine some of the monetary policy decisions announced over the week, before wrapping up with a look at the inflation and employment situation in Japan.

1. US GDP
First up is US GDP which grew 0.4% q/q (or 2.0% "annualised" vs consensus 2.0%). On a year on year basis the US economy grew 3.1% vs 3.0% in Q2. Much of the gains were in inventory investment, consumer spending, equipment investment and government spending. So overall, the result was much as expected - relatively ho-hum, showing the US economy recovering - but at a subdued and muddled pace. So of course it's not plain sailing yet, a lot of the damage done during the financial crisis needs to be repaired, and a lot of the excesses need to be unwound before a true sustainable economic recovery can take place in the US.

2. UK GDP
over in the UK the growth rate was relatively strong at 0.8% q/q, which is a little lower than the 1.2% in Q2, but still respectable and enough to disappoint those that were hoping for another round of quantitative easing from the Bank of England. On an annual basis the British economy grew 2.8%, up from 1.7% in Q2. But as with the US, the all clear can't be signaled yet, and it is too soon to rule out further monetary policy stimulus - especially as the UK government seeks to reign in its budget deficit (maybe a bit of contracting on the fiscal and expanding on the monetary). So all the more reason to watch what happens next week!

3. US Consumer Confidence and Housing
Also out in the past week was the much watched Case Shiller House price report for August, which came in weaker on a monthly basis and slowed its increase on a yearly basis. So a disappointing result, but not a surprising result - there's no fundamental basis to expect a strong upsurge in the US housing market (and relatively small basis for sideways movement in prices). So of course it's also unsurprising to see still subdued results in the consumer confidence numbers, albeit with a small increase to 50.2 from 48.5 in September. At the margin the result was positive in that much of the increase was driven by an increase in the future expectations index, which is sensible.

4. Monetary Policy
In monetary policy there were no major events this week, the main items of interest were Denmark, and Sweden both increasing interest rates slightly - but signaling a slow move. The other interesting part was Japan, which expanded the scope of its asset purchase program and brought forward the next meeting date (to just after the Fed's meeting next week). On that note, the next week will be a very interesting week monetary policy-wise as the US FOMC, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, RBA, and ECB are all set to announce policy decisions. The main point of attention will be what the US Fed does in terms of QEII - will it go for a shock and awe campaign, or will it go for an incrementalist approach? Either way it almost seems a certainty now that the second quantitative easing campaign is about to commence.

5. Japan Inflation and Unemployment
In Japan, deflation remained persistent with the CPI falling -1.1% vs -1.0% in August, but the jobless rate slipped slightly to 5.0% vs 5.1% in August on the back of increasing payrolls. As pointed out, the Bank of Japan expanded the scope of its asset purchase program to include lower graded corporate bonds in effort to try and stimulate the economy and try and inject a semblance of inflation. Most remarkably though was the move to hold another meeting next week just after the Fed, which signals that the BOJ is ready to act if the US makes moves to devalue the US dollar. This would not be surprising as the Japanese economy is traditionally an export led economy, and with recent trade results faltering somewhat it may make for an interesting week indeed.

Summary

So we saw the US with relatively subdued growth in Q3, but growth nonetheless. But without showing major signs of strength has all but pave the way for a second campaign of quantitative easing by the US. Meanwhile the UK grew a little faster, and perhaps even blew the case for an extension of the asset purchase program by the Bank of England. We also saw a weakening US housing market and a US consumer stuck in limbo. On the monetary policy front most held, a couple increased, but the real monetary policy action will come next week. In Japan deflation remained, jobless declined slightly, and the BoJ lined itself up to counter any possible dollar devaluing determinations from the Fed next week.

Sources:
1. Bureau of Economic Analysis www.bea.gov
2. UK National Statistics www.statistics.gov.uk
3. Conference Board www.conference-board.org & Standard & Poors www.standardandpoors.com
4. CentralBankNews.info www.centralbanknews.info
5. Trading Economics www.tradingeconomics.com

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/top5graphs-30oct.html

Economic Calendar - Week Starting 25 October 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 25th of October 2010. This week the main event is the US Q3 GDP report on Friday, the UK will also release its Q3 GDP data this week. In monetary policy New Zealand and Japan are both due to announce interest rate decisions this week. Japan also has a swath of key monthly data out such as employment, inflation, industrial production, and trade data. The US will also see its much Case-Shiller house price report, and consumer confidence numbers released this week.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day	Time (GMT)	Code	Event/Release	Forecast	Previous
SUN	23:50	JPY	Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (SEP)	9.6	15.5
SUN	23:50	JPY	Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (SEP)	7.4	17.9
SUN	23:50	JPY	Merchandise Trade Balance Total (SEP)	¥710.0B	¥86.0B
MON	09:00	EUR	EU Industrial New Orders (MoM) (AUG)	2.4%	-1.8%
MON	14:00	USD	Existing Home Sales (SEP)	4.30M	4.13M
MON	14:00	USD	Existing Home Sales (MoM) (SEP)	4.1%	7.6%
TUE	08:30	GBP	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q A)	0.4%	1.2%
TUE	08:30	GBP	Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) A	2.4%	1.7%
TUE	13:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (AUG)		148.91
TUE	13:00	USD	S&P/Case Shiller 20 City (MoM) SA (AUG)	-0.20%	-0.13%
TUE	13:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (AUG)	2.20%	3.18%
TUE	14:00	USD	Consumer Confidence (OCT)	49.5	48.5
TUE	21:00	USD	ABC Consumer Confidence (OCT 24)
TUE		EUR	German CPI (YoY) (OCT P)	1.3%	1.3%
TUE	00:30	AUD	Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (3Q)	2.9%	3.1%
WED	12:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders (SEP)	2.0%	-1.5%
WED	14:00	USD	New Home Sales (SEP)	300K	288K
WED	14:00	USD	New Home Sales (MoM) (SEP)	4.2%	0.0%
WED	20:00	NZD	RBNZ Rate Decision (OCT)	3.00%	3.00%
WED		JPY	Bank of Japan Rate Decision (OCT 28)	0.10%	0.10%
THU	04:00	CNY	Leading Index (SEP)		101.91
THU	07:55	EUR	German Unemployment Change (OCT)	-30K	-40K
THU	12:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 23)	455K	452K
THU	12:30	USD	Continuing Claims (OCT 16)	4430K	4441K
THU	21:45	NZD	Exports (New Zealand dollars) (SEP)		3.15B
THU	21:45	NZD	Imports (New Zealand dollars) (SEP)		3.59B
THU	23:15	JPY	Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PPMI (OCT)		49.5
THU	23:30	JPY	National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)	-0.6%
THU	23:30	JPY	Jobless Rate (SEP)	5.1%	5.1%
THU	23:30	JPY	National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP)	-1.5%
THU	23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP P)	-0.6%	-0.5%
THU	23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP P)	12.3%
THU		CNY	MNI Business Condition Survey (OCT)		69.54
FRI	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (SEP)	10.1%	10.1%
FRI	12:30	CAD	Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (AUG)	0.3%	-0.1%
FRI	12:30	USD	Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (3Q A)	2.2%	1.7%
FRI	13:55	USD	U. of Michigan Confidence (OCT F)	68.0	67.9

As noted the key report this week is the US Q3 GDP figures, which will provide a timely insight into where the US economy is at - of course as always its not so much the quantum that matters as much as the breakdown. In other words where is the growth coming from? and what are the flow on effects? In any case the forecasts are for around 2-3%, and will likely slow in the 4th quarter. The UK is also on the GDP radar this week, with expectations for a slower 0.4% q/q rate (compared to 1.2% in Q2), and is likely to only slow further as the UK comes to grips with some of the key challenges it's currently facing.

On the monetary policy front there's the RBNZ in New Zealand, which is likely to hold at 3.00%, as the governor recently signaled rates would likely be on hold until next year (having tightened from 2.50% this year). The bank of Japan has already reached the limit in terms of interest rates, but could come out with further quantitative easing plans in efforts to stimulate the economy and get inflation going.

Speaking of Japan, there's the usual consumer price index data due this week (expected to show continued deep deflation), and employment data (little change expected), and industrial production (a slight decrease), and trade data (also expecting a slower rate of expansion). So combined with potential policy action from the Bank of Japan, the data will give a good insight into where the Japanese economy is headed. Oh and its neighbor has a leading index report out this week too.

Back to the US, the other key data this week is the ever critical housing report; S&P Case-Shiller home price indexes (as well as the existing and new home sales reports), so it will be good to check in on the US housing market. There's also the consumer confidence indexes due out (conference board, and University of Michigan). But of course waiting for positive changes in these data sets is currently like watching paint dry - but do search for insights in the details nonetheless.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/25oct-calendar.html

Economic Calendar - Week Starting 4 October 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 4th of October 2010. This week the main events are in the monetary policy and employment space. Firs up there's Japan with its monthly monetary policy meeting, then the RBA in Australia is expected to re-commence tightening, then the ECB and Bank of England meet on Thursday. On the employment front there's data from Australia, Canada, and the US with the much watched non-farm payrolls report. Also this week, the IMF will release its World Economic Outlook forecasts and commentary on Wednesday, shortly before the IMF annual meetings kick off in the coming weekend.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day	Time (GMT)	Code	Event/Release	Forecast	Previous
MON	EUR	09:00	Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)	3.7%	4.0%
MON	USD	14:00	Pending Home Sales (YoY) (AUG)		-20.1%
MON	USD	14:00	Factory Orders (AUG)	0.0%	0.1%
MON	JPY		Bank of Japan Rate Decision (OCT 5)	0.10%	0.10%
MON	AUD	00:30	Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (AUG)	0.4%	0.7%
MON	AUD	00:30	Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (AUG)	2300M	1888M
MON	AUD	03:30	Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision	4.75%	4.50%
TUE	CHF	07:15	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)	0.3%	0.3%
TUE	EUR	07:55	German PMI Services (SEP F)	54.6	54.6
TUE	EUR	08:00	Euro-Zone PMI Services (SEP F)	53.6	53.6
TUE	EUR	08:00	Euro-Zone PMI Composite (SEP F)
TUE	GBP	08:30	Purchasing Manager Index Services (SEP)	51.0	51.3
TUE	EUR	09:00	Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (AUG)		1.1%
TUE	USD	14:00	ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (SEP)	52.0	51.5
TUE	USD	21:00	ABC Consumer Confidence (OCT 3)		-46
WED	EUR	09:00	Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) (2Q F)		1.9%
WED	EUR	09:00	Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) (2Q F)	1.0%	1.0%
WED	EUR	10:00	German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (AUG)	1.0%	-2.2%
WED	USD	12:15	ADP Employment Change (SEP)	20K	-10K
WED	CAD	14:00	Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (SEP)	62.0	65.9
WED	GBP		NIESR GDP Estimate (SEP)		0.7%
WED	AUD	00:30	Employment Change (SEP)	20.0K	30.9K
WED	AUD	00:30	Unemployment Rate (SEP)	5.1%	5.1%
THU	GBP	08:30	Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG)	4.2%	1.9%
THU	EUR	10:00	German Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG)		10.9%
THU	GBP	11:00	Bank of England Rate Decision (OCT 7)	0.50%	0.50%
THU	GBP	11:00	Bank of England Asset Purchase Target	200B	200B
THU	EUR	11:45	European Central Bank Rate Decision (OCT)	1.00%	1.00%
THU	USD	12:30	Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 2)	453K	453K
THU	USD	19:00	Consumer Credit (AUG)	-$3.0B	-$3.6B
THU	CNY	02:30	China HSBC Services PMI (SEP)		57.6
FRI	EUR	06:00	German Exports s.a. (MoM) (AUG)	-0.8%	-1.6%
FRI	EUR	06:00	German Imports s.a. (MoM) (AUG)	0.4%	-2.2%
FRI	GBP	08:30	Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP)	8.6%	8.1%
FRI	GBP	08:30	PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP)	4.3%	4.6%
FRI	CAD	11:00	Net Change in Employment (SEP)	10.0K	35.8K
FRI	CAD	11:00	Unemployment Rate (SEP)	8.0%	8.1%
FRI	USD	12:30	Change in Non-farm Payrolls (SEP)	5K	-54K
FRI	USD	12:30	Average Hourly Earning All Employees (MoM)	0.2%	0.3%
FRI	USD	12:30	Change in Private Payrolls (SEP)	82K	67K
FRI	USD	12:30	Unemployment Rate (SEP)	9.7%	9.6%
FRI	USD	12:30	Average Weekly Hours All Employees (SEP)	34.2	34.2
	All		IMF Meetings

Starting off with the monetary policy events, the Bank of Japan of course wont touch interest rates, if anything they might look to do additional stimulus to get the economy moving and attack the persistent deflation problem - it will also be interesting to see what they say about the yentervention . The Reserve Bank of Australia will also come firmly into the spotlight as the consensus is growing toward seeing another interest rate increase... remember this time last year it kicked off the tightening cycle - dejavu anyone? The ECB probably wont do much, but it always puts out some insightful commentary, and the Bank of England could well release more stimulus - in preference of addressing the economic growth risks vs the inflation risks.

On the jobs front, Australia is up first, and is expected to show jobs growth around 20k vs 30.9k in August, as the lucky country's economy goes from strength to strength on the back of a strong resources sector that is likely to only grow in strength (as long as commodity prices stay right... and the Aussie dollar for that matter). In Canada it's a similar story, the resources sector is going strong and jobs growth is expected to come in at 10k vs 35.8k in August. Meanwhile in the US, consensus is for about 5k on the headline payrolls figure vs -54k in Aug, while the private payrolls number is expected to be about 82k vs 67k in Aug... still nothing to write home about in the context of the net negative jobs growth over the past decade.

Elsewhere there's a few data points out on Germany this week including the PMI numbers, factory orders (expected to increase), industrial production, and exports and imports data. There's also producer price index info from the EU and UK. Also among the remaining PMI data to be released this week for September, there's the US non-manufacturing composite, and the China HSBC services PMI; both of which will be critical data points to be across in terms of monitoring the two largest economies. In the US there's also consumer credit data due out for August, as well as pending home sales and the ABC consumer confidence index.

Another interesting feature of this week will be the IMF (International Monetary Fund), with the respected World Economic Outlook due to be released on Wednesday, and the IMF annual meetings in the coming weekend. While its unlikely to be too much more than a talk-fest, it will be worth monitoring what they have to say.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/4oct-calendar.html