Economic Calendar - 5 December 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 5th of December 2010. This week there's a few central bank meetings (AUD, CAD, NZD, GBP), China data begins to trickle out (property prices, international trade), and a range of trade, international accounts, and industrial production figures are due out from a range of economies.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day	GMT	Country/ Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
MON	15:00	CAD	Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (NOV)	56.20	56.70
MON	16:01	CNY	China Manpower Survey (1Q)		51.00%
MON	23:00	NZD	QV House Prices (YoY) (NOV)		1.10%
MON		GBP	NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (NOV)		0.50%
MON	03:30	AUD	Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (DEC)	4.75%	4.75%
TUE	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT)	3.90%	3.80%
TUE	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (YoY) (OCT)	5.40%	4.80%
TUE	11:00	EUR	German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT)	18.60%	14.0%
TUE	14:00	CAD	Bank of Canada Rate Decision (DEC)	1.00%	1.00%
TUE	20:00	USD	Consumer Credit (OCT)	-$1.0B	$2.1B
TUE	23:50	JPY	Current Account Total (Yen) (OCT)	¥1521.0B	¥1959.8B
TUE	23:50	JPY	Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (OCT)	¥953.0B	¥926.9B
TUE	23:50	JPY	Machine Orders (MoM) (OCT)	-0.10%	-10.30%
TUE	23:50	JPY	Machine Orders (YoY) (OCT)	8.30%	4.20%
WED	07:00	EUR	German Exports s.a. (MoM) (OCT)	0.00%	3.00%
WED	07:00	EUR	German Imports s.a. (MoM) (OCT)	1.00%	-1.60%
WED	07:00	EUR	German Current Account (euros) (OCT)	13.0B	14.0B
WED	07:00	EUR	German Trade Balance (euros) (OCT)	15.1B	16.8B
WED	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT)	10.00%	7.90%
WED	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (OCT)	1.00%	-0.80%
WED	20:00	NZD	Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision	3.00%	3.00%
WED	23:50	JPY	Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (3Q F)	-2.00%	-2.00%
WED	23:50	JPY	Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q F)	0.80%	0.70%
WED	23:50	JPY	Gross Domestic Product Annualized (3Q F)	4.10%	3.90%
WED	23:50	JPY	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q F)	1.00%	0.90%
WED	00:30	AUD	Employment Change (NOV)	20.0K	29.7K
WED	00:30	AUD	Unemployment Rate (NOV)	5.20%	5.40%
THU	07:00	EUR	German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV F)	1.50%	1.50%
THU	12:00	GBP	Bank of England Asset Purchase Target (DEC)	200B	200B
THU	12:00	GBP	Bank of England Rate Decision (DEC)	0.50%	0.50%
THU	21:45	NZD	Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (3Q)	1.60%	2.10%
FRI	05:00	CNY	China Property Prices (NOV)	8.00	8.60
FRI	05:00	CNY	Trade Balance (NOV)	$21.00B	$27.15B
FRI	05:00	CNY	Exports (YoY) (NOV)	22.70%	22.90%
FRI	05:00	CNY	Imports (YoY) (NOV)	24.30%	25.30%
FRI	05:00	JPY	Consumer Confidence (NOV)		41.10
FRI	07:45	EUR	French Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT)	5.50%	5.10%
FRI	07:45	EUR	French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (OCT)	5.10%	4.90%
FRI	09:00	EUR	Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT)	5.00%	4.10%
FRI	09:30	GBP	Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (NOV)	8.30%	8.00%
FRI	09:30	GBP	Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (NOV)	4.00%	4.00%
FRI	10:00	EUR	Italian Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q F)	0.20%	0.20%
FRI	10:00	EUR	Italian Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q F)	1.00%	1.00%
FRI	13:30	CAD	International Merchandise Trade (CAD) (OCT)	-2.0B	-2.5B
FRI	13:30	USD	Trade Balance (OCT)	-$43.8B	-$44.0B
FRI	13:30	USD	Import Price Index (YoY) (NOV)	2.90%	3.60%
FRI	14:00	USD	Paul Volcker Speaks on Monetary Policy
FRI	14:55	USD	U. of Michigan Confidence (DEC P)	72.00	71.60

As noted it's set to be a big monetary policy week in the developed economies. The Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and Bank of England are all set to review monetary policy this week. However, it is quite unlikely that any of them will materially change policy. The only possibilities is that the RBA could surprise the markets again with a rate hike, or the BoE might alter its asset purchase plan, but the baseline scenario is for no changes - anything else will be a surprise.

China begins releasing its key data series this week, first up will be property prices (likely Friday), and consensus is for a slightly slower rate of growth. This will be an important indicator to watch given the policy backdrop. The other key data point is the international trade data, which has obvious Yuan implications, but also important to watch globally in terms of the China effect with imports, and for its own economy, with exports.

Also out this week is a range of industrial production and manufacturing production reports. The UK is expected to show slightly improved numbers, Germany a bit better, France also, ditto Italy. So it will be good to gauge the state of Euro region manufacturing activity - an important aspect of the recovery, especially in countries with a strong manufacturing base like Germany.

Other key bits to keep an eye on include another reading of the Q3 GDP numbers in Japan, US consumer credit, German trade data, Aussie jobs numbers, the US trade balance, and the Reuters University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey in the US.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/5dec-calendar.html

Economic Calendar - Week Starting 14 November 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 14th of November 2010. This week there's Japan Q3 GDP, with consensus picking a small acceleration from Q2. There's also meeting minutes due out from the BoE and RBA, which will be interesting in light of their recent decisions. Of course there's also a line up of inflation stats from the US, UK, and EU, as well as industrial production and retail sales stats.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day	GMT	Country/ Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
SUN	21:45	NZD	Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP)	1.10%	0.00%
SUN	23:50	JPY	Gross Domestic Product Annualized (3Q P)	2.50%	1.50%
SUN	23:50	JPY	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q P)	0.60%	0.40%
SUN	23:50	JPY	Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (3Q P)	-1.50%	-1.70%
SUN	04:30	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP F)		-1.90%
SUN	04:30	JPY	Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP F)
MON	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (SEP)	1.0B	-1.4B
MON	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (SEP)	0.1B	-4.3B
MON	13:30	USD	Advance Retail Sales (OCT)	0.70%	0.60%
MON	13:30	USD	Retail Sales Less Autos (OCT)	0.40%	0.40%
MON	13:30	USD	Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Gas (OCT)	0.30%	0.40%
MON		CNY	Actual FDI (YoY) (OCT)	10.40%	6.10%
MON	00:30	AUD	Reserve Bank's Board November Minutes (NOV 15)
MON	02:00	CNY	China September Leading Economic Index
TUE	09:30	GBP	Consumer Price Index (MoM) (OCT)	0.20%	0.00%
TUE	09:30	GBP	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)	3.10%	3.10%
TUE	09:30	GBP	Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)	2.60%	2.70%
TUE	09:30	GBP	Retail Price Index (YoY) (OCT)	4.60%	4.60%
TUE	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT F)	1.90%
TUE	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (OCT)	0.30%	0.20%
TUE	13:30	USD	Producer Price Index (MoM) (OCT)	0.80%	0.40%
TUE	13:30	USD	Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (OCT)	2.10%	1.60%
TUE	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (OCT)	0.30%	-0.20%
TUE	14:15	USD	Capacity Utilization (OCT)	74.90%	74.70%
TUE	01:30	USD	Housing Starts (OCT)	-1.60%	0.30%
WED	09:30	GBP	Bank of England Minutes (NOV)
WED	09:30	GBP	Jobless Claims Change (OCT)	6.0K	5.3K
WED	13:30	USD	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)		1.10%
WED	13:30	USD	Consumer Price Index (MoM) (OCT)	0.30%	0.10%
WED	13:30	USD	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM)	0.10%	0.00%
WED	13:30	USD	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)	0.70%	0.80%
WED	13:30	USD	Housing Starts (OCT) MOM%	600K	610K
WED	13:30	USD	Building Permits (OCT)	570K	539K
WED	21:45	NZD	Producer Prices- Inputs (QoQ) (3Q)	0.30%
WED	21:45	NZD	Producer Prices- Outputs (QoQ) (3Q)	0.60%
THU	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)	1.50%	1.80%
THU	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales with Auto Fuel (YoY) (OCT)	0.00%	0.50%
THU	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (SEP)		-10.5B
THU	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (SEP)		-7.5B
THU	23:50	JPY	Bank of Japan Meeting of the Minutes (OCT)
FRI	10:15	USD	Bernanke Speaks at ECB Conference in Frankfurt

As mentioned, Japan is set to announce its September quarter GDP stats, with the market picking a positive number (after Q2 saw a negative nominal number - made positive only after factoring in deflation!). Consensus sees Q3 GDP rising 0.60% from Q2, vs 0.40% in Q2 from Q1. But overall it will be a good opportunity to check in on the worlds 3rd largest economy.

Sticking with Japan, the Bank of Japan joins the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Bank of England, in releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes. All three will be relatively interesting; Japan's last meeting was held just after the Fed announced QEII, the RBA surprised the market with its rate hike after communicating a different message, and the BoE held fire on any adjustments to its asset purchase program - so we will watch these with great interest.

On a similar topic, a key feature of this week will be the inflation data releases. There's the UK with its October CPI and RPI, the EU with October CPI, ditto the US; and the US also has PPI and capacity utilisation stats out. So it will be a great chance to see if these developed nations are seeing any trends like the Chinese with their rapidly accelerating inflation.

Other key data releases this week include industrial production stats from Japan and the US. Foreign direct investment and the leading economic index from China. And US housing starts for the October month. There's also the banking conference on Friday which will be hosted by the ECB.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/14nov-calendar.html

Top 5 Economics Graphs of the Week - 20 August 2010

This week we look at the Q2 GDP results for Japan and Taiwan; getting a gauge on how these two key Asian economies are tracking in their recoveries. Then onto the US where we look first at the industrial production results, which are a tad paradoxical, and then at the PPI stats which may be pointing to margin compression. Then we wrap-up with a view on Euro zone inflation.

1. Japan GDP
Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.4% (basically flat), well below median forecasts for about 2.3%, and Q1 revised rate of 4.4%. The Japanese economy was also reported as dropping behind China to the world's 3rd largest economy (which is pretty much just a technicality in confirming a foregone conclusion). The Japanese economy was held back by slowing export growth and subdued consumption, as phase 2 of the recovery sets in (i.e. the muddle ages). So Japan will keep muddling on, the key sensitivities for Japan continue to be international trade (and therefore the currency), and on a related note; the resilience of the Chinese economy.


2. Taiwan GDP
Taiwan's economy grew 12.53% year on year in the June quarter, slower than 13.71% in Q1 but higher than consensus estimates for 10.5%. The great rebound is just about run its course in Taiwan. The Taiwanese economy which is also closely linked to the fortunes of global trade, and its neighbor to the north (Zhong Guo); which is currently undergoing a managed slowdown. The policy factors are also playing into the picture as the central bank in Taiwan normalises monetary policy (with a few small hikes expected into the second half of 2010), as well as fiscal policy normalisation, with the authorities keen to keep government debt below the 40% debt to GNP ceiling.

3. Industrial Production
The US released its industrial production figures for July this week, with production rising 1.0% month on month; ahead of consensus 0.6%, and previous 0.1%. On an annual basis industrial production rose 7.7% off of the lows of the earlier stages of the recession, decelerating slightly off 8.2% in June. Capacity utilisation also climbed to 74.8% from 74.1% in June. Looking at the chart below you can see the path of some of the other major economies; China's trucking along, Japan's super-volatile, and the EU/US are playing catch-up since the depths of the recession. The trend marks a dissonance in the US economic scene, as business investment and manufacturing is a bright spot, whereas the consumer is a dark spot; if the US can build up exports it may lead to a happier ending...

4. US PPI
US Headline PPI rose 4.1% year on year, and core (taking off the more volatile food & energy components) rose 1.5%. The movements in prices here reflect some of the signals from the PMI prices sub-index which has been riding relatively high for a few months; however as is notable from the relatively more static and subdued CPI inflation metrics, the price increases aren't getting passed through to the consumer (which makes sense given the competitive environment, and economic environment), so this may mean a bit of margin compression... especially as capacity utilization (normalization) results in eventual reversals of the purge of labor costs during the recession. So this recent positive bout of corporate earnings could be somewhat short-lived as demand is relatively lackluster and potential pressure on the cost side also puts a double hit on margins.

5. EU CPI
Euro zone inflation increased in July to 1.7% from 1.4% in June on an annual basis for the Euro area, and 2.1% from 1.9% for the EU. However in the month of July inflation was actually negative compared to the previous month. The results tentatively point to a stabilisation or even turning of inflation, but as the ECB noted in its recent statement, "inflation rates should remain moderate overall, benefiting from low domestic price pressures". And so, the EU will likely also just keep muddling along, with no significant price inflation; but... remember the EU is actually a collection of economies, which will all be tracking along at their own unique pace e.g. the powerhouse Germany vs the others like Greece.

Summary

So we saw a tapering off of growth in both Japan and Taiwan, two key Asian economies that saw a strong bounce back in GDP following their emergence from the depths of the crisis. And looking forward, the risks are similar for them both; they are both very sensitive to the course of the global economy due to their dependence on international trade, but of the two, Taiwan has less problems and seemingly a better policy position.

Then onto the US we saw industrial production tracking along well; providing some positive (albeit dichotomous) signs as the consumption paradox unwinds. There was also the potential early warning in PPI that margin pressure may increase for US corporates in the medium term. Keeping with large developed economies and inflation; the EU inflation picture is unfolding much as the growth picture is; just muddling along.

Sources
1. OECD Statistics Database stats.oecd.org
2. Taiwan Statistics eng.stat.gov.tw
3. Trading Economics www.tradingeconomics.com
4. US Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov
5. Eurostat epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/top5graphs20aug.html

Economic Calendar - 12 July 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 12th of July 2010. This week there's inflation figures due out from China, US, UK, EU, and New Zealand. China is also set to release its Q2 GDP figures this week, as well as fixed asset investment, retail sales, PPI, and industrial production. The EU, Japan, and US are also set to release their latest industrial production figures this week. There's also more confidence numbers from the US, Australia, Japan, and the Euro Zone.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day

Time (GMT)

Code

Event/Release

Forecast

Previous

MON	1:30	AUD	Home Loans (MAY)	0.0%	-1.8%
MON	1:30	AUD	Investment Lending (MAY)		1.3%
MON	8:30	GBP	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q F)	0.3%	0.4%
MON	8:30	GBP	Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q F)	-0.2%	-3.1%
MON	14:30	CAD	Business Outlook Future Sales (2Q)		44
TUE	1:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence (JUN)		5
TUE	4:30	JPY	Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY F)		20.2%
TUE	5:00	JPY	Consumer Confidence (JUN)		42.7
TUE	7:15	CHF	Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUN)		1.4%
TUE	8:30	GBP	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)	3.1%	3.4%
TUE	8:30	GBP	Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)	2.8%	2.9%
TUE	9:00	EUR	German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUL)	25.3	28.7
TUE	9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUL)	16.3	18.8
TUE	12:30	CAD	International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (MAY)		0.2B
TUE	12:30	USD	Trade Balance (MAY)	-$39.0B	-$40.3B
TUE	22:00	NZD	REINZ House Sales (YoY) (JUN)		-17.2%
TUE	22:00	NZD	REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (JUN)		-1.4%
TUE	22:45	NZD	Retail Sales Ex-Auto (MoM) (MAY)	0.6%	-0.2%
TUE	23:01	GBP	Nationwide Consumer Confidence (JUN)	62	65
WED	0:30	AUD	Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (JUL)		101.9
WED	8:30	GBP	Jobless Claims Change (JUN)	-20.0K	-30.9K
WED	9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN F)	1.4%	1.4%
WED	9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (JUN)	0.9%	0.8%
WED	9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY)	1.2%	0.8%
WED	12:30	USD	Advance Retail Sales (JUN)	-0.2%	-1.2%
WED	12:30	USD	Retail Sales Less Autos (JUN)	-0.1%	-1.1%
WED	18:00	USD	Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes
WED	22:00	CNY	Consumer Price Index	3.3%	3.1%
WED	22:00	CNY	Gross Domestic Product	10.5%	11.9%
WED	22:00	CNY	Industrial Production	15.2%	16.5%
WED	22:00	CNY	Retail Sales y/y	18.8%	18.7%
WED	22:30	NZD	Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (JUN)		54.5
THU		JPY	Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision	0.10%	0.10%
THU	8:00	EUR	European Central Bank Monthly Report
THU	12:30	USD	Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)	3.1%	5.3%
THU	12:30	USD	Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUN)	1.1%	1.3%
THU	13:15	USD	Industrial Production (JUN)	0.0%	1.2%
THU	14:00	USD	Senate Banking Committee Holds Hearing on Fed Nominations
THU	22:45	NZD	Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (2Q)		2.0%
FRI	9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (MAY)	0.8B	1.4B
FRI	12:30	CAD	Leading Indicators (MoM) (JUN)		0.9%
FRI	12:30	USD	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)	1.2%	2.0%
FRI	12:30	USD	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUN)	0.9%	0.9%
FRI	13:55	USD	U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL P)	74	76

A major feature this week will be the monthly China data release (trade figures are already out), but this time there will also be the quarterlies, including an update on the GDP situation in China. Growth is projected to slow slightly, and inflation is projected to accelerate, while industrial projection is likely to show a decrease, and consumer spending will probably be close to unchanged. Given the concerns about a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy, this will be a closely watched release.

On the inflation front, the UK will start off the June CPI reporting, with expectations for a slight decrease in the inflation rate; next is Europe, expected to show little change in the year on year change. As noted China is expected to show a slight increase, New Zealand will also likely see an increase, but the US on the other hand will likely see a further drop-off in the inflation rate - in line with indications from the PMI figures for June.

Another feature of the week will be the updates to industrial production; first up is the final reading for May from Japan, then there's the May reading for the Euro-Zone; expected to be up slightly on a year over year basis, and the US is expected to report a slight slowdown, as is China; which is consistent with the PMI readings from both countries.

In the monetary policy sphere there's the Bank of Japan interest rate decision, US FOMC minutes, and the Senate banking committee will be holding a hearing on Fed nominations.

Also as noted, there will be further confidence updates, with Japan reporting consumer confidence, Australia reporting business and consumer confidence, the EU reporting economic sentiment, and the US with the University of Michigan Confidence indicator.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/12jul-calendar.html