Economic Calendar - 28 June 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 28th of June 2010. The end of June confidence indicators and PMI's start to come out this week; on the confidence indicators side there's US consumer confidence, New Zealand business confidence, EU economic confidence, UK consumer confidence, and the Bloomberg financial conditions index. On the PMI side, there's the closely watched ISM manufacturing PMI in the US, and the CFLP and HSBC PMI's in China, there's also Japan's Tankan survey, and UK and EU PMIs. On the employment front there's the nonfarm payrolls update from the US (as well as an update on the housing market with the S&P Case Shiller index due out), and official unemployment rates from the EU and Japan.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day	Time (GMT)	Code	Event/Release	Forecast	Previous
MON		EUR	German Consumer Price Index (YoY) June	1.0%	1.2%
MON	3:00	NZD	NBNZ Business Confidence (JUN)		48.2
MON	12:30	USD	Personal Income (MAY)	0.5%	0.4%
MON	12:30	USD	Personal Spending (MAY)	0.1%	0.0%
MON	12:30	USD	Personal Consumption Expenditure Core y/y	1.2%	1.2%
MON	12:30	USD	Chicago Fed National Activity Index	0.32	0.29
MON	23:30	JPY	Jobless Rate (MAY)	5.0%	5.1%
MON	23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY P)	0.0%	1.3%
TUE	9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JUN)	98.1	98.4
TUE	9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (JUN)	0.32	0.34
TUE	13:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 sa m/m	-0.35%	-0.05%
TUE	13:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY)	3.4%	2.3%
TUE	14:00	USD	Consumer Confidence (JUN)	62.5	63.3
TUE	23:01	GBP	GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN)	-19	-18
WED	5:00	JPY	Housing Starts (YoY) (MAY)	5.0%	0.6%
WED	6:00	GBP	Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN)	9.0%	9.8%
WED	7:55	EUR	German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUN)	7.7%	7.7%
WED	8:30	GBP	Current Account (Pounds) (1Q)	-4.5B	-1.7B
WED	8:30	GBP	GDP y/y Q1 Final	-0.2%	-0.2%
WED	9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (JUN)	1.5%	1.6%
WED	12:15	USD	ADP Employment Change (JUN)	60K	55K
WED	12:30	CAD	Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (APR)	0.1%	0.6%
WED	20:15	USD	Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index		-1.0
WED	21:00	CNY	CFLP Manufacturing PMI	53.2	53.9
WED	22:30	CNY	HSBC Manufacturing PMI		52.7
WED	23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (2Q)	1	-8
WED	23:50	JPY	Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook (2Q)	-3	-10
WED	23:50	JPY	Tankan Large All Industry Capex (2Q)	5.0%	-0.4%
THU	1:30	AUD	Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (MAY)	0.3%	0.6%
THU	1:30	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM) (MAY)	0.0%	-14.8%
THU	3:00	NZD	ANZ Commodity Price (JUN)		2.5%
THU	6:00	EUR	German Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY)	0.4%	1.0%
THU	8:00	EUR	Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (JUN F)	55.6	55.6
THU	8:30	GBP	PMI Manufacturing (JUN)	57.6	58.0
THU	14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing (JUN)	59.0	59.7
THU	14:00	USD	ISM Prices Paid (JUN)	72.0	77.5
THU	14:00	USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM) (MAY)	-15.2%	6.0%
THU	14:00	USD	Construction Spending (MoM) (MAY)	-0.6%	2.7%
THU	23:50	JPY	Monetary Base (YoY) (JUN)		3.7%
FRI	9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (MAY)	10.1%	10.1%
FRI	12:30	USD	Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (JUN)	-110K	431K
FRI	12:30	USD	Unemployment Rate (JUN)	9.8%	9.7%
FRI	12:30	USD	Change in Private Payrolls (JUN)	113K	41K
FRI	12:30	USD	Average Hourly Earning (YoY) (JUN)	2.0%	1.9%
FRI	14:00	USD	Factory Orders (MAY)	-0.5%	1.2%

As noted we start July with some of the high frequency data, one of the key ones being the confidence indicators. First up is New Zealand business confidence, which will be interesting to see given the lukewarm GDP results reported for Q1 last week. Then there's EU economic confidence and the business climate indicator; both expected to cool slightly for June. Then on Tuesday, there's the US conference board Consumer Confidence index, which is expected to ease slightly. The UK GfK consumer confidence survey is also expected to drop slightly for June. So on the confidence front there's not much confidence in confidence it seems...

The other key high frequency economic indicator is the PMI or Purchasing Manager's Index. The influential ISM manufacturing PMI in the US will provide some useful clues as to the direction and current state of the US economic recovery; expectations are for a slight weakening; but as always the components will be the interesting bit. Of course the other key release will be from China, with both the CFLP and HSBC indexes released around Wednesday; these will provide a timely update on the direction of China's industrial economic growth engine - which has showed some signs of easing off. And the other one of the top 3 economies is Japan's Tankan survey of business conditions, with expectations for improvements, as the Japanese economy benefits from a gradual rebound in international trade.

On the employment front, US nonfarm payrolls are due out on Friday, with the consensus being at the moment for another 113k jobs added in June (with 41k added in May). The employment situation in the US is getting increasing attention as economists, strategists, investors, and consumers alike attempt to assess how the US economic recovery will unfold; the employment situation, and closely related; the housing situation (note the S&P Case Shiller house price index is also out this week), are critical to not only the probability of a recovery in consumer spending, but also the pace and effectiveness of consumer deleveraging and wealth rebuilding.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, stay tuned for updates...

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

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