Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 17th of May 2010. The main event this week is Japanese GDP, due on Wednesday, which will provide a good update the 2nd/3rd largest economy. Other than that it's pretty much inflation week, with CPI and PPI data due out from the UK, EU, US, and Canada; providing a broad developed economy inflation snapshot. On monetary policy there's meeting minutes from the RBA, BoE, and the Fed, and there's the Bank of Japan with its usual interest rate decision on Friday. Elsewhere, there's a few indicators out of the EU (confidence, PMI etc) and Australia, and New Zealand has its budget on Thursday with tax changes expected.
(More commentary follows the table)
| Day | Time (GMT) | Code | Event/Release | Forecast | Previous |
| MON | 13:00 | USD | Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAR) | $50.0B | $47.1B |
| MON | 22:45 | NZD | Producer Prices- Outputs (QoQ) (1Q) | -0.4% | |
| TUE | 1:30 | AUD | Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes | ||
| TUE | 5:00 | JPY | Consumer Confidence Households (APR) | 42 | 40.9 |
| TUE | 8:30 | GBP | Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| TUE | 8:30 | GBP | Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 2.9% | 3.0% |
| TUE | 9:00 | EUR | German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) | 46.5 | 53 |
| TUE | 9:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) | 38 | 46 |
| TUE | 9:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| TUE | 9:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (APR) | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| TUE | 12:30 | USD | Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 5.6% | 6.0% |
| TUE | 12:30 | USD | Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| TUE | 12:30 | USD | Housing Starts (MoM) (APR) | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| TUE | 12:30 | USD | Building Permits (MoM) (APR) | -0.7% | 7.5% |
| WED | 0:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAY) | -1.0% | |
| WED | 4:30 | JPY | Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR F) | 30.7% | |
| WED | 8:30 | GBP | Bank of England Meeting Minutes | ||
| WED | 12:30 | USD | Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| WED | 12:30 | USD | CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (APR) | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| WED | 18:00 | USD | Federal Open Market Committee Minutes | ||
| WED | 23:50 | JPY | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| WED | 23:50 | JPY | Gross Domestic Product Annualized (1Q P) | 5.5% | 3.8% |
| THU | 2:00 | NZD | Finance Minister Bill English Delivers Budget | ||
| THU | 8:30 | GBP | Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (APR) | -0.1% | 0.2% |
| THU | 14:00 | USD | Leading Indicators (APR) | 0.2% | 1.4% |
| THU | 14:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAY A) | -16 | -15 |
| FRI | JPY | Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision | 0.1% | ||
| FRI | 3:00 | NZD | ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAY) | 0.0% | |
| FRI | 7:30 | EUR | German PMI Manufacturing (MAY A) | 61.2 | 61.5 |
| FRI | 8:00 | EUR | German IFO - Expectations (MAY) | 103.5 | 104 |
| FRI | 8:00 | EUR | German IFO - Business Climate (MAY) | 101.9 | 101.6 |
| FRI | 8:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone PMI Services (MAY A) | 55.6 | 55.6 |
| FRI | 8:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (MAY A) | 57.4 | 57.6 |
| FRI | 8:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone PMI Composite (MAY A) | 57.2 | 57.3 |
| FRI | 8:30 | GBP | Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (APR) | 10.9B | 23.5B |
| FRI | 8:30 | GBP | Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (APR) | 7.0B | 25.8B |
| FRI | 11:00 | CAD | Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 1.7% | 1.4% |
| FRI | 11:00 | CAD | Bank Canada CPI Core (YoY) (APR) | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| FRI | 12:30 | CAD | Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR) | 0.0% | 0.5% |
Starting off with the main event, Japanese GDP is due out Wednesday; the forecasts are for 1.4% quarter on quarter, vs previous growth of 0.9% in Q4 2009. The Japanese economy has been on the rebound recently, driven by the recovery in international trade (thanks to the inventory cycle, and China stimulus). Thus it will be sensible to expect a positive economic growth figure in Q1 2010 for Japan. The main caveat is that Japan has some serious fiscal and deflation problems. On the fiscal front it has one of the highest debt to gdp ratios of the developed nations, and on the deflation front they're still trying hard to kick it back into inflation.
On the inflation front the EU numbers will probably confirm a view of no significant near term inflationary pressure, with core expected to fall and headline expected to be flat. In the UK, there is a real risk of stagflation (well they pretty much already have stagflation - slow growth and high inflation), so those numbers will be interesting. In the US, there is a reasonable degree of risk of inflation pressures rising in the US; particularly if the stimulus exit isn't managed well (i.e. ZIRP for an extended period of time).
In terms of the confidence indicators, the EU PMI and economic sentiment numbers will provide a good insight into how the sovereign debt crisis is affecting the overall sentiment in Europe, and therefore how it may end up playing through to economic activity. Meanwhile with the monetary policy meeting minutes due from the RBA, BoE, and the Fed, this will be a good chance to get into some of the detailed thinking and analysis behind some of the recent policy decisions, and where those economies are at. And in New Zealand the budget announcement will likely see a lowering of personal income taxes, increase in GST, and tightening up of property investment tax loopholes; as well as more spending on science and R&D.
So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, stay tuned for updates...
Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification
Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/17may-calendar.html
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