Saturday, September 17, 2011

Macro Graph Dump: BRIC - 18 Sep 2011

Here's a couple BRIC [Brazil Russia India China] economic charts, and a few throw-away thoughts on emerging markets in general.

1. BRIC Y/Y GDP Growth
The BRIC economies have made an obvious bounce-back from the GFC, but the notables are Russia and Brazil. Russia has seen certain less sustainable bits of its economy falter and is currently sustaining growth at sub-pre-crisis levels. Brazil got a good boost thanks mostly to the low base comparator effect and is settling into more normal growth... India and China are powering along as per usual.

2. BRIC Inflation
On the inflation front, rising prices remains the greater problem for many emerging markets. There have been some tentative signs of a peak in inflation rates in places like China and Russia. But India is still seeing some inflation impulse (and just recently hiked interest rates again). Keeping a keen eye on the inflation-growth mix in these economies.

3. BRIC Monetary Policy Rates
The key bit to watch with the growth-inflation mix is the monetary policy track. Brazil announced a shock cut to its selic rate recently, which means either political pressure is hitting or the BCB knows something we don't. As noted India is still in tightening mode, while Russia did some tinkering around the edges last week with policy rate bands. China seems to be on hold for now and likely wont ease in the near term. Very interesting area to monitor, these emerging markets are much better positioned on a monetary policy front to meet a slow down in growth cf. developed markets who're delving into the monetary dark arts.

+Various statistics & news websites

No comments:

Post a Comment

What do you think?