Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Is This China's Last Trade Surplus?

China reported a trade surplus for the month of April at $11.4B, up from virtually 0 in March. Exports rose to a record $155.7B (up 2% m/m, 30% y/y) from $152.2B in March and $119.9B in April 2010. Imports slipped month-on-month to $144.3B (down 5% m/m, up 22% y/y), from $152B in March, and $118.2B in April 2010. The return to a monthly surplus will likely accentuate pressure from the US for China to alter its yuan policy, but there are other forces at work which will drive both upward and downward pressure on China's trade balance.


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