Saturday, February 19, 2011

Economic Calendar - Week Starting 19 Feb 2011

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 21st of February 2011. This week there's some key US data out that will give an insight into the US housing market; S&P/Case-Shiller house prices, existing home sales, and new home sales. In the US there's also durable goods orders, two key confidence indicators, and of course GDP stats. The UK and Germany also release GDP numbers this week, and over in Japan there's the BoJ meeting minutes, and inflation numbers.

(More commentary follows the table)

Date GMT Country/
Event Forecast Previous
MON 08:00 EUR French PMI Manufacturing 55.30 54.90
MON 08:00 EUR French PMI Services 58.00 57.80
MON 08:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing 60.20 60.50
MON 08:30 EUR German PMI Services 60.00 60.30
MON 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Composite
MON 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing 57.00 57.30
MON 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services 56.00 55.90
MON 23:50 JPY BOJ to Release Jan. 24-25 Board Mtg Minutes

MON 02:00 NZD RBNZ 2-Year Inflation Expectation
TUE 13:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) -0.10% 1.30%
TUE 14:00 USD S&P/Case Shiller 20 City (MoM) SA -0.50% -0.54%
TUE 14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) -2.30% -1.59%
TUE 14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY)
TUE 15:00 USD Consumer Confidence 63.00 60.60
TUE 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) 8.30 13.00
TUE 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) 8.80 10.60
WED 09:30 GBP Bank of England Minutes

WED 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders (YoY) 16.20% 19.90%
WED 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders s.a. (MoM) -1.00% 2.10%
WED 15:00 USD Existing Home Sales 5.20M 5.28M
WED 15:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) -1.10% 12.30%
WED 00:30 EUR German Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.40% 0.40%
THU 07:00 EUR German Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 4.00% 4.00%
THU 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator
THU 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
THU 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence 106.80 106.50
THU 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence 6.50 6.00
THU 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence 9.50 9.20
THU 13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 405K 410K
THU 13:30 USD Continuing Claims
THU 13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders 2.9% -2.5%
THU 15:00 USD New Home Sales 300K 329K
THU 15:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) -8.8% 17.5%
THU 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) -0.1% 0.0%
FRI 05:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY)
FRI 09:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) -0.5% -0.5%
FRI 09:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 1.7% 1.7%
FRI 13:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) 3.3% 3.2%
FRI 14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence 75.40 75.10

As noted this will be a good week to check in on the state of the US housing market. First up will be the S&P/Case Shiller home price index, including the much watched 20 City Composite; consensus says another month of falling prices (ditto on a year on year basis). Then there's existing home sales which is expected to decline on a rolling 12-month basis; likewise new home sales are also expected to decline. So it's likely the data will confirm what most of us know - the US housing market isn't doing that great; but in terms of the outlook, conditions are probably supportive e.g. an eventual jobs recovery, broader economic recovery, low rates, easier credit - and more willingness/ability to gain credit, but of course - tread carefully...

The US is also one of a few economies to make further GDP announcements this week. The US is expected to make a slight upward revision to Q4 GDP, to about 3.3% on a seasonally adjusted annualised basis. Over in Euro land, the UK will also release a further update to its GDP stats, with little change expected at about -0.5% q/q, meanwhile Germany is also expected to show little change with 0.4% q/q.

Elsewhere, back in the US there's the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence reading for mid-month Feb, as well as he University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment mid-month reading; both will provide timely gauges on the US consumer. In Japan, now officially the world's 3rd largest economy behind China, there's merchandise trade stats, and consumer price index numbers - with inflation expected to dip back into a small negative. In monetary policy there's no major banks meeting, but the Bank of Japan and more interestingly; the Bank of England will release their meeting minutes.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

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+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

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