Sunday, January 9, 2011

Economic Calendar - Week Starting 10 Jan 2011

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 10th of January 2011. This week there's some key inflation data due out from the EU and US, with both economies set to release their CPI reports, and the US and UK also set to release producer prices. There's also industrial production stats from France, Italy, the EU, UK, and US - the US also has capacity utilisation, University of Michigan confidence, and its trade balance data due (oh and China just released its trade stats). On monetary policy the Bank of England and European Central Bank both meet this week to review monetary policy settings.

(More commentary follows the table)

Date GMT Country/
Event Forecast Previous
SUN 21:45 NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (NOV) 3.65B 3.68B
SUN 21:45 NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (NOV) 3.80B 4.00B
SUN 00:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (NOV) 0.30% -1.10%
SUN 02:00 CNY Imports (YoY) (DEC) 24.90% 37.70%
SUN 02:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (DEC) $20.75B $22.89B
SUN 02:00 CNY Exports (YoY) (DEC) 23.30% 34.90%
MON 07:45 EUR French Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV) 4.40% 4.70%
MON 07:45 EUR French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (NOV) 3.60% 4.50%
MON 13:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (NOV) 0.80% 6.50%
TUE 13:15 CAD Housing Starts (DEC) 178.0K 188.1K
TUE 23:50 JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (NOV) ¥297.7B ¥912.9B
TUE 23:50 JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (NOV) ¥972.5B ¥1436.2B
TUE 23:50 JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (NOV) ¥1149.7B ¥1462.6B
WED 05:00 NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (DEC)

WED 08:00 EUR German Real GDP Growth (DEC 31) 3.60% -4.70%
WED 09:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (NOV) 4.40% 2.90%
WED 09:30 GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (NOV) -£3800 -£3946
WED 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV) 5.90% 6.90%
WED 13:30 USD Import Price Index (YoY) (DEC) 4.70% 3.70%
WED 19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement (APR 23) -$83.5B -$91.4B
WED 23:50 JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (NOV) 17.40% 7.00%
WED 00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (DEC) 5.10% 5.20%
WED 00:30 AUD Employment Change (DEC) 25.0K 54.6K
THU 06:30 EUR French Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC) 1.70% 1.60%
THU 09:30 GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV) 3.30% 3.30%
THU 09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (NOV) 5.30% 5.80%
THU 12:00 GBP Bank of England Asset Purchase Target (JAN) 200B 200B
THU 12:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (JAN 13) 0.50% 0.50%
THU 12:45 EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (JAN 13) 1.00% 1.00%
THU 13:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (NOV) -2.0B -1.7B
THU 13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 8) 402K 409K
THU 13:30 USD Continuing Claims (JAN 1) 4100K 4103K
THU 13:30 USD PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (DEC) 1.40% 1.20%
THU 13:30 USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (DEC) 3.80% 3.50%
THU 13:30 USD Trade Balance (NOV) -$41.0B -$38.7B
THU 23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI (YoY) (DEC) 1.00% 0.90%
FRI 07:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC F) 1.70% 1.70%
FRI 09:30 GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC) 10.20% 9.00%
FRI 09:30 GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC) 3.90% 3.90%
FRI 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (DEC) 1.10% 1.10%
FRI 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (NOV) 3.3B 5.2B
FRI 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC) 2.20%
FRI 13:30 USD CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (DEC) 0.80% 0.80%
FRI 13:30 USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC) 1.30% 1.10%
FRI 13:30 USD Advance Retail Sales (DEC) 0.80% 0.80%
FRI 14:15 USD Capacity Utilization (DEC) 75.60% 75.20%
FRI 14:15 USD Industrial Production (DEC) 0.50% 0.40%
FRI 14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN P) 75.50 74.50

As noted there's a few key CPI releases out this week, including of course the US CPI data (the US also has capacity utilization numbers out - highly relevant to the inflation picture). The US is expected to report an increase in the headline inflation rate, but for core CPI to remain more or less flat vs November. Over in the EU it's a similar story, slightly higher headline, but flat core inflation. For now it seems inflation is not a worry in the developed economies - but one has to wonder about imported inflation from the rapidly growing emerging markets like China and India - who're both seeing rising inflation.

Another feature of this weak is a set of industrial production figures - this will be a good chance to get an insight into how the manufacturing sector is coping in various parts of the world. First up is France (expect a little worse), then Italy (expect a little better), Euro-Zone (worse), UK (flat), and of course the US (flat to slight improvement). It's worth noting two stats here - the US last reported its industrial production growth at 0.4% year on year; China last reported its industrial production growth at over 13% year on year.

On the monetary policy front, as noted the Bank of England will meet this week to review monetary policy, now - with this one, there's a reasonable chance they may actually start the normalization process this year with a couple of rate hikes - but for now expect no change. It's a similar story for the European Central Bank - but we'll have to watch that one closer within the backdrop of the Euro-crisis; which is still ongoing, what will the ECB have to say about it this time?

Elsewhere there's a bunch of other interesting stats like the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (expect a small improvement), the US trade balance (worse), UK producer prices (higher), US producer prices (higher). Also out this week (was) China's trade results, (click through to the article for full analysis).

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

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+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

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