Saturday, December 4, 2010

Economic Calendar - 5 December 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 5th of December 2010. This week there's a few central bank meetings (AUD, CAD, NZD, GBP), China data begins to trickle out (property prices, international trade), and a range of trade, international accounts, and industrial production figures are due out from a range of economies.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day GMT Country/
Event Forecast Previous
MON 15:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (NOV) 56.20 56.70
MON 16:01 CNY China Manpower Survey (1Q)
MON 23:00 NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (NOV)
GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (NOV)
MON 03:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (DEC) 4.75% 4.75%
TUE 09:30 GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT) 3.90% 3.80%
TUE 09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (OCT) 5.40% 4.80%
TUE 11:00 EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT) 18.60% 14.0%
TUE 14:00 CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (DEC) 1.00% 1.00%
TUE 20:00 USD Consumer Credit (OCT) -$1.0B $2.1B
TUE 23:50 JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (OCT) ¥1521.0B ¥1959.8B
TUE 23:50 JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (OCT) ¥953.0B ¥926.9B
TUE 23:50 JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (OCT) -0.10% -10.30%
TUE 23:50 JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (OCT) 8.30% 4.20%
WED 07:00 EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (OCT) 0.00% 3.00%
WED 07:00 EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (OCT) 1.00% -1.60%
WED 07:00 EUR German Current Account (euros) (OCT) 13.0B 14.0B
WED 07:00 EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (OCT) 15.1B 16.8B
WED 11:00 EUR German Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT) 10.00% 7.90%
WED 11:00 EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (OCT) 1.00% -0.80%
WED 20:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision 3.00% 3.00%
WED 23:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (3Q F) -2.00% -2.00%
WED 23:50 JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q F) 0.80% 0.70%
WED 23:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (3Q F) 4.10% 3.90%
WED 23:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q F) 1.00% 0.90%
WED 00:30 AUD Employment Change (NOV) 20.0K 29.7K
WED 00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (NOV) 5.20% 5.40%
THU 07:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV F) 1.50% 1.50%
THU 12:00 GBP Bank of England Asset Purchase Target (DEC) 200B 200B
THU 12:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (DEC) 0.50% 0.50%
THU 21:45 NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (3Q) 1.60% 2.10%
FRI 05:00 CNY China Property Prices (NOV) 8.00 8.60
FRI 05:00 CNY Trade Balance (NOV) $21.00B $27.15B
FRI 05:00 CNY Exports (YoY) (NOV) 22.70% 22.90%
FRI 05:00 CNY Imports (YoY) (NOV) 24.30% 25.30%
FRI 05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence (NOV)
FRI 07:45 EUR French Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT) 5.50% 5.10%
FRI 07:45 EUR French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (OCT) 5.10% 4.90%
FRI 09:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT) 5.00% 4.10%
FRI 09:30 GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (NOV) 8.30% 8.00%
FRI 09:30 GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (NOV) 4.00% 4.00%
FRI 10:00 EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q F) 0.20% 0.20%
FRI 10:00 EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q F) 1.00% 1.00%
FRI 13:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) (OCT) -2.0B -2.5B
FRI 13:30 USD Trade Balance (OCT) -$43.8B -$44.0B
FRI 13:30 USD Import Price Index (YoY) (NOV) 2.90% 3.60%
FRI 14:00 USD Paul Volcker Speaks on Monetary Policy

FRI 14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (DEC P) 72.00 71.60

As noted it's set to be a big monetary policy week in the developed economies. The Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and Bank of England are all set to review monetary policy this week. However, it is quite unlikely that any of them will materially change policy. The only possibilities is that the RBA could surprise the markets again with a rate hike, or the BoE might alter its asset purchase plan, but the baseline scenario is for no changes - anything else will be a surprise.

China begins releasing its key data series this week, first up will be property prices (likely Friday), and consensus is for a slightly slower rate of growth. This will be an important indicator to watch given the policy backdrop. The other key data point is the international trade data, which has obvious Yuan implications, but also important to watch globally in terms of the China effect with imports, and for its own economy, with exports.

Also out this week is a range of industrial production and manufacturing production reports. The UK is expected to show slightly improved numbers, Germany a bit better, France also, ditto Italy. So it will be good to gauge the state of Euro region manufacturing activity - an important aspect of the recovery, especially in countries with a strong manufacturing base like Germany.

Other key bits to keep an eye on include another reading of the Q3 GDP numbers in Japan, US consumer credit, German trade data, Aussie jobs numbers, the US trade balance, and the Reuters University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey in the US.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Forex Pros
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+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

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