Saturday, October 2, 2010

Economic Calendar - Week Starting 4 October 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 4th of October 2010. This week the main events are in the monetary policy and employment space. Firs up there's Japan with its monthly monetary policy meeting, then the RBA in Australia is expected to re-commence tightening, then the ECB and Bank of England meet on Thursday. On the employment front there's data from Australia, Canada, and the US with the much watched non-farm payrolls report. Also this week, the IMF will release its World Economic Outlook forecasts and commentary on Wednesday, shortly before the IMF annual meetings kick off in the coming weekend.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
MON EUR 09:00 Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) 3.7% 4.0%
MON USD 14:00 Pending Home Sales (YoY) (AUG)
MON USD 14:00 Factory Orders (AUG) 0.0% 0.1%
Bank of Japan Rate Decision (OCT 5) 0.10% 0.10%
MON AUD 00:30 Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (AUG) 0.4% 0.7%
MON AUD 00:30 Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (AUG) 2300M 1888M
MON AUD 03:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 4.75% 4.50%
TUE CHF 07:15 Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) 0.3% 0.3%
TUE EUR 07:55 German PMI Services (SEP F) 54.6 54.6
TUE EUR 08:00 Euro-Zone PMI Services (SEP F) 53.6 53.6
TUE EUR 08:00 Euro-Zone PMI Composite (SEP F)

TUE GBP 08:30 Purchasing Manager Index Services (SEP) 51.0 51.3
TUE EUR 09:00 Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (AUG)
TUE USD 14:00 ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (SEP) 52.0 51.5
TUE USD 21:00 ABC Consumer Confidence (OCT 3)
WED EUR 09:00 Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) (2Q F)
WED EUR 09:00 Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) (2Q F) 1.0% 1.0%
WED EUR 10:00 German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (AUG) 1.0% -2.2%
WED USD 12:15 ADP Employment Change (SEP) 20K -10K
WED CAD 14:00 Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (SEP) 62.0 65.9
NIESR GDP Estimate (SEP)
WED AUD 00:30 Employment Change (SEP) 20.0K 30.9K
WED AUD 00:30 Unemployment Rate (SEP) 5.1% 5.1%
THU GBP 08:30 Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG) 4.2% 1.9%
THU EUR 10:00 German Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG)
THU GBP 11:00 Bank of England Rate Decision (OCT 7) 0.50% 0.50%
THU GBP 11:00 Bank of England Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B
THU EUR 11:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision (OCT) 1.00% 1.00%
THU USD 12:30 Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 2) 453K 453K
THU USD 19:00 Consumer Credit (AUG) -$3.0B -$3.6B
THU CNY 02:30 China HSBC Services PMI (SEP)
FRI EUR 06:00 German Exports s.a. (MoM) (AUG) -0.8% -1.6%
FRI EUR 06:00 German Imports s.a. (MoM) (AUG) 0.4% -2.2%
FRI GBP 08:30 Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP) 8.6% 8.1%
FRI GBP 08:30 PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP) 4.3% 4.6%
FRI CAD 11:00 Net Change in Employment (SEP) 10.0K 35.8K
FRI CAD 11:00 Unemployment Rate (SEP) 8.0% 8.1%
FRI USD 12:30 Change in Non-farm Payrolls (SEP) 5K -54K
FRI USD 12:30 Average Hourly Earning All Employees (MoM) 0.2% 0.3%
FRI USD 12:30 Change in Private Payrolls (SEP) 82K 67K
FRI USD 12:30 Unemployment Rate (SEP) 9.7% 9.6%
FRI USD 12:30 Average Weekly Hours All Employees (SEP) 34.2 34.2

IMF Meetings

Starting off with the monetary policy events, the Bank of Japan of course wont touch interest rates, if anything they might look to do additional stimulus to get the economy moving and attack the persistent deflation problem - it will also be interesting to see what they say about the yentervention . The Reserve Bank of Australia will also come firmly into the spotlight as the consensus is growing toward seeing another interest rate increase... remember this time last year it kicked off the tightening cycle - dejavu anyone? The ECB probably wont do much, but it always puts out some insightful commentary, and the Bank of England could well release more stimulus - in preference of addressing the economic growth risks vs the inflation risks.

On the jobs front, Australia is up first, and is expected to show jobs growth around 20k vs 30.9k in August, as the lucky country's economy goes from strength to strength on the back of a strong resources sector that is likely to only grow in strength (as long as commodity prices stay right... and the Aussie dollar for that matter). In Canada it's a similar story, the resources sector is going strong and jobs growth is expected to come in at 10k vs 35.8k in August. Meanwhile in the US, consensus is for about 5k on the headline payrolls figure vs -54k in Aug, while the private payrolls number is expected to be about 82k vs 67k in Aug... still nothing to write home about in the context of the net negative jobs growth over the past decade.

Elsewhere there's a few data points out on Germany this week including the PMI numbers, factory orders (expected to increase), industrial production, and exports and imports data. There's also producer price index info from the EU and UK. Also among the remaining PMI data to be released this week for September, there's the US non-manufacturing composite, and the China HSBC services PMI; both of which will be critical data points to be across in terms of monitoring the two largest economies. In the US there's also consumer credit data due out for August, as well as pending home sales and the ABC consumer confidence index.

Another interesting feature of this week will be the IMF (International Monetary Fund), with the respected World Economic Outlook due to be released on Wednesday, and the IMF annual meetings in the coming weekend. While its unlikely to be too much more than a talk-fest, it will be worth monitoring what they have to say.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

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