Sunday, October 24, 2010

Economic Calendar - Week Starting 25 October 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 25th of October 2010. This week the main event is the US Q3 GDP report on Friday, the UK will also release its Q3 GDP data this week. In monetary policy New Zealand and Japan are both due to announce interest rate decisions this week. Japan also has a swath of key monthly data out such as employment, inflation, industrial production, and trade data. The US will also see its much Case-Shiller house price report, and consumer confidence numbers released this week.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
SUN 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (SEP) 9.6 15.5
SUN 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (SEP) 7.4 17.9
SUN 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (SEP) ¥710.0B ¥86.0B
MON 09:00 EUR EU Industrial New Orders (MoM) (AUG) 2.4% -1.8%
MON 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (SEP) 4.30M 4.13M
MON 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (SEP) 4.1% 7.6%
TUE 08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q A) 0.4% 1.2%
TUE 08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) A 2.4% 1.7%
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (AUG)
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case Shiller 20 City (MoM) SA (AUG) -0.20% -0.13%
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (AUG) 2.20% 3.18%
TUE 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence (OCT) 49.5 48.5
TUE 21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (OCT 24)

EUR German CPI (YoY) (OCT P) 1.3% 1.3%
TUE 00:30 AUD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (3Q) 2.9% 3.1%
WED 12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (SEP) 2.0% -1.5%
WED 14:00 USD New Home Sales (SEP) 300K 288K
WED 14:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (SEP) 4.2% 0.0%
WED 20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision (OCT) 3.00% 3.00%
JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (OCT 28) 0.10% 0.10%
THU 04:00 CNY Leading Index (SEP)
THU 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (OCT) -30K -40K
THU 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 23) 455K 452K
THU 12:30 USD Continuing Claims (OCT 16) 4430K 4441K
THU 21:45 NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (SEP)
THU 21:45 NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (SEP)
THU 23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PPMI (OCT)
THU 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) -0.6%
THU 23:30 JPY Jobless Rate (SEP) 5.1% 5.1%
THU 23:30 JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP) -1.5%
THU 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP P) -0.6% -0.5%
THU 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP P) 12.3%
CNY MNI Business Condition Survey (OCT)
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (SEP) 10.1% 10.1%
FRI 12:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (AUG) 0.3% -0.1%
FRI 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (3Q A) 2.2% 1.7%
FRI 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (OCT F) 68.0 67.9

As noted the key report this week is the US Q3 GDP figures, which will provide a timely insight into where the US economy is at - of course as always its not so much the quantum that matters as much as the breakdown. In other words where is the growth coming from? and what are the flow on effects? In any case the forecasts are for around 2-3%, and will likely slow in the 4th quarter. The UK is also on the GDP radar this week, with expectations for a slower 0.4% q/q rate (compared to 1.2% in Q2), and is likely to only slow further as the UK comes to grips with some of the key challenges it's currently facing.

On the monetary policy front there's the RBNZ in New Zealand, which is likely to hold at 3.00%, as the governor recently signaled rates would likely be on hold until next year (having tightened from 2.50% this year). The bank of Japan has already reached the limit in terms of interest rates, but could come out with further quantitative easing plans in efforts to stimulate the economy and get inflation going.

Speaking of Japan, there's the usual consumer price index data due this week (expected to show continued deep deflation), and employment data (little change expected), and industrial production (a slight decrease), and trade data (also expecting a slower rate of expansion). So combined with potential policy action from the Bank of Japan, the data will give a good insight into where the Japanese economy is headed. Oh and its neighbor has a leading index report out this week too.

Back to the US, the other key data this week is the ever critical housing report; S&P Case-Shiller home price indexes (as well as the existing and new home sales reports), so it will be good to check in on the US housing market. There's also the consumer confidence indexes due out (conference board, and University of Michigan). But of course waiting for positive changes in these data sets is currently like watching paint dry - but do search for insights in the details nonetheless.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

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