Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 25th of October 2010. This week the main event is the US Q3 GDP report on Friday, the UK will also release its Q3 GDP data this week. In monetary policy New Zealand and Japan are both due to announce interest rate decisions this week. Japan also has a swath of key monthly data out such as employment, inflation, industrial production, and trade data. The US will also see its much Case-Shiller house price report, and consumer confidence numbers released this week.
(More commentary follows the table)
|SUN||23:50||JPY||Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (SEP)||9.6||15.5|
|SUN||23:50||JPY||Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (SEP)||7.4||17.9|
|SUN||23:50||JPY||Merchandise Trade Balance Total (SEP)||¥710.0B||¥86.0B|
|MON||09:00||EUR||EU Industrial New Orders (MoM) (AUG)||2.4%||-1.8%|
|MON||14:00||USD||Existing Home Sales (SEP)||4.30M||4.13M|
|MON||14:00||USD||Existing Home Sales (MoM) (SEP)||4.1%||7.6%|
|TUE||08:30||GBP||Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q A)||0.4%||1.2%|
|TUE||08:30||GBP||Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) A||2.4%||1.7%|
|TUE||13:00||USD||S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (AUG)||148.91|
|TUE||13:00||USD||S&P/Case Shiller 20 City (MoM) SA (AUG)||-0.20%||-0.13%|
|TUE||13:00||USD||S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (AUG)||2.20%||3.18%|
|TUE||14:00||USD||Consumer Confidence (OCT)||49.5||48.5|
|TUE||21:00||USD||ABC Consumer Confidence (OCT 24)|
|TUE||EUR||German CPI (YoY) (OCT P)||1.3%||1.3%|
|TUE||00:30||AUD||Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (3Q)||2.9%||3.1%|
|WED||12:30||USD||Durable Goods Orders (SEP)||2.0%||-1.5%|
|WED||14:00||USD||New Home Sales (SEP)||300K||288K|
|WED||14:00||USD||New Home Sales (MoM) (SEP)||4.2%||0.0%|
|WED||20:00||NZD||RBNZ Rate Decision (OCT)||3.00%||3.00%|
|WED||JPY||Bank of Japan Rate Decision (OCT 28)||0.10%||0.10%|
|THU||04:00||CNY||Leading Index (SEP)||101.91|
|THU||07:55||EUR||German Unemployment Change (OCT)||-30K||-40K|
|THU||12:30||USD||Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 23)||455K||452K|
|THU||12:30||USD||Continuing Claims (OCT 16)||4430K||4441K|
|THU||21:45||NZD||Exports (New Zealand dollars) (SEP)||3.15B|
|THU||21:45||NZD||Imports (New Zealand dollars) (SEP)||3.59B|
|THU||23:15||JPY||Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PPMI (OCT)||49.5|
|THU||23:30||JPY||National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)||-0.6%|
|THU||23:30||JPY||Jobless Rate (SEP)||5.1%||5.1%|
|THU||23:30||JPY||National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP)||-1.5%|
|THU||23:50||JPY||Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP P)||-0.6%||-0.5%|
|THU||23:50||JPY||Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP P)||12.3%|
|THU||CNY||MNI Business Condition Survey (OCT)||69.54|
|FRI||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (SEP)||10.1%||10.1%|
|FRI||12:30||CAD||Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (AUG)||0.3%||-0.1%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (3Q A)||2.2%||1.7%|
|FRI||13:55||USD||U. of Michigan Confidence (OCT F)||68.0||67.9|
As noted the key report this week is the US Q3 GDP figures, which will provide a timely insight into where the US economy is at - of course as always its not so much the quantum that matters as much as the breakdown. In other words where is the growth coming from? and what are the flow on effects? In any case the forecasts are for around 2-3%, and will likely slow in the 4th quarter. The UK is also on the GDP radar this week, with expectations for a slower 0.4% q/q rate (compared to 1.2% in Q2), and is likely to only slow further as the UK comes to grips with some of the key challenges it's currently facing.
On the monetary policy front there's the RBNZ in New Zealand, which is likely to hold at 3.00%, as the governor recently signaled rates would likely be on hold until next year (having tightened from 2.50% this year). The bank of Japan has already reached the limit in terms of interest rates, but could come out with further quantitative easing plans in efforts to stimulate the economy and get inflation going.
Speaking of Japan, there's the usual consumer price index data due this week (expected to show continued deep deflation), and employment data (little change expected), and industrial production (a slight decrease), and trade data (also expecting a slower rate of expansion). So combined with potential policy action from the Bank of Japan, the data will give a good insight into where the Japanese economy is headed. Oh and its neighbor has a leading index report out this week too.
Back to the US, the other key data this week is the ever critical housing report; S&P Case-Shiller home price indexes (as well as the existing and new home sales reports), so it will be good to check in on the US housing market. There's also the consumer confidence indexes due out (conference board, and University of Michigan). But of course waiting for positive changes in these data sets is currently like watching paint dry - but do search for insights in the details nonetheless.
So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...
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+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification
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