Saturday, October 16, 2010

Economic Calendar - Week Starting 17 October 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 17th of October 2010. This week China takes the stage with its monthly main economic indicators release; of course as it is also a quarter end there will be GDP data as well. Elsewhere the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday, and the RBA and BoE will release monetary policy meeting minutes and the Fed will release its Beige Book. Also on the radar is the G-20 Summit of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors on Thursday.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
SUN 21:45 NZD Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (3Q) 1.0% 0.3%
SUN 21:45 NZD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (3Q) 1.5% 1.8%
MON 13:15 USD Industrial Production (SEP) 0.2% 0.2%
MON 13:15 USD Capacity Utilization (SEP) 74.8% 74.7%
MON 00:30 AUD Reserve Bank's Board October Minutes

TUE 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a.
TUE 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a.
TUE 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output (YoY)
TUE 12:30 USD Housing Starts (SEP) 583K 598K
TUE 12:30 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (SEP) -2.6% 10.5%
TUE 12:30 USD Building Permits (SEP) 575K 571K
TUE 12:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (SEP) 0.7% 1.8%
TUE 13:00 CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
TUE 21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence

WED 05:00 JPY Coincident Index (AUG F) (AUG F)

WED 05:00 JPY Leading Index (AUG F) (AUG F)

WED 08:30 GBP Bank of England Minutes (OCT 20)

WED 18:00 USD Fed's Beige Book (OCT 20)

WED 02:00 CNY Real GDP YoY (3Q) 9.5% 10.3%
WED 02:00 NZD Consumer Confidence Index (OCT)
WED 02:00 CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) 4.1% 4.3%
WED 02:00 CNY GDP Year-to-Date (YoY) (3Q) 10.5% 11.1%
WED 02:00 CNY Purchasing Price Index (YoY) (SEP)
WED 02:00 CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) 3.6% 3.5%
WED 02:00 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (SEP) 18.5% 18.4%
WED 02:00 CNY Retail Sales YTD YoY (SEP) 18.3% 18.2%
WED 02:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP) 14% 13.9%
WED 02:00 CNY Industrial Production YTD YoY (SEP) 16.3% 16.6%
WED 02:00 CNY Fixed Assets Inv Urban YTD YoY (SEP) 24.6% 24.8%
THU 04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (AUG) -0.4% 1.00%
THU 06:15 CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (SEP) 1.20B 0.58B
THU 08:30 GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (SEP) 2.0% 1.9%
THU 08:30 GBP Retail Sales with Auto Fuel (YoY) (SEP) 0.9% 0.4%
THU 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 16) 453K 462K
THU 12:30 USD Continuing Claims (OCT 9) 4420K 4399K
THU 14:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (OCT A) -11 -11

G-20 Finance Ministers, C.Bank Governors

CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (SEP) 0.1% -0.1%
CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) 1.9% 1.7%
CAD Bank Canada CPI Core (MoM) (SEP) 0.3% 0.1%
CAD Bank Canada CPI Core (YoY) (SEP) 1.6% 1.6%

As noted the main even this week is the China data; China's Q3 GDP will be closely watched and is forecast to come in around 9.5% (down slightly on previous 10.3%). The other bits to watch will be the CPI figures (expected to rise to 3.6%), as latent inflationary pressures are surely likely to flow through soon. Then of course there's also industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment.

In monetary policy, the Bank of Canada is set to review monetary policy this week, with the consensus for a hold at 1.00%. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England will release their latest monetary policy meeting minutes, and the US Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report on the economy - something that will likely be read with much interest in the backdrop of speculation around a second round of quantitative easing.

On the topic of central banking there will be a high level summit of central bankers hosted by the IMF and the Peoples Bank of China in Shanghai on Monday (with a focus on macroprudential policies). Then there's the G-20 summit of finance ministers and central bank governors on Thursday, which will be a key forum as policy makers try to ensure a continuation of the economic recovery - without falling into the trap of a race to the bottom with currency wars and protectionism.

Other key features of the week will be CPI figures from Canada (expected to be about 1.9% y/y) and New Zealand (expected to be about 1.5% y/y). Also in the US there's industrial production and capacity utilisation figures on Monday; and housing starts, permits, and ABC consumer confidence on Tuesday.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

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