Sunday, October 31, 2010

Economic Calendar: Monetary Policy Mayhem

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 1st of November 2010. This week is monetary policy mayhem week! The main even will be the announcement from the US FOMC as it announces its decision on monetary policy, and more importantly its decision on quantitative easing - this will be closely watched by the world. And then there's also the Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of India, and of course the Bank of Japan - who rescheduled its meeting to follow the Fed's announcement. Other than the monetary policy mayhem there's the usual PMI's from China and the US, and nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

(More commentary follows the table)

Date GMT Code Event Forecast Previous
SUN 00:30 AUD House Price Index (YoY) (3Q) 13.4% 18.4%
SUN 01:00 CNY PMI Manufacturing (OCT) 53.8 53.8
SUN 02:30 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (OCT)
MON 08:55 EUR German PMI (OCT F) 56.1 56.1
MON 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI (OCT F) 54.1 54.1
MON 09:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (OCT) 53.0 53.4
MON 12:30 USD Personal Income (SEP) 0.3% 0.5%
MON 12:30 USD Personal Spending (SEP) 0.4% 0.4%
MON 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) 1.4% 1.4%
MON 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing (OCT) 54.0 54.4
MON 15:00 JPY Bank of Japan Minutes

MON 03:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (NOV 4.50% 4.50%
TUE 01:00 CNY China Non-manufacturing PMI (OCT)

TUE 02:30 CNY China HSBC Services PMI (OCT)

INR Reserve Bank of India 5.25% 5.00%
WED 14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (OCT) 53.5 53.2
WED 18:15 USD FOMC Decision (NOV) 0.25% 0.25%
WED 21:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (3Q) 0.5% -0.3%
WED 21:45 NZD Unemployment Rate (3Q)
THU 08:15 CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) 0.3% 0.3%
THU 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) 4.2% 3.6%
THU 11:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (NOV) 0.50% 0.50%
THU 11:45 EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (NOV) 1.00% 1.00%
THU 12:00 GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (NOV) 200B 200B
THU 14:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (OCT)
JPY BOJ Target Rate Decision (NOV)
THU 00:30 AUD RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement (NOV)

FRI 11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment (OCT) 10.0K -6.6K
FRI 11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate (OCT) 8.0% 8.0%
FRI 12:30 USD Change in Private Payrolls (OCT) 80K 64K
FRI 12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (OCT)
FRI 12:30 USD Unemployment Rate (OCT) 9.6% 9.6%
FRI 19:00 USD Consumer Credit (SEP) -3.0B -$3.3B

As noted the monetary policy mayhem begins on Monday with the RBA announcing its decision - and it will be a close call, but likely a hold. Then on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of India is likely to add another 25bps to its interest rate as inflation heats up. Then of course on Wednesday the Fed makes the announcement the markets have all been waiting for - the quantitative easing campaign, by now it's almost a foregone conclusion, so it would be a major disappointment to the markets if there were no such announcement. Then on Thursday the ECB and BoE meet, it's a given they'll hold interest rates, but there could be remote scope for the BoE to expand its asset purchase program. And then the wildcard comes - Japan; the BoJ strategically brought forward its next meeting to just after the Fed's announcement - so it wouldn't be unreasonably to expect some kind of counter moves if the US dollar gets devalued to any significant degree.

And of course the October PMI results will start rolling out this week, with China taking the stage first, and consensus is for little change, but this is a figure to watch closely, it has begun to rebound but let's see if its noise or a trend. Then the US will release its figures, and consensus is for a slight drop, which should be no surprise - the inventory cycle has basically run its course, and consumers aren't racing to the shops, so it's likely US manufacturing will be on the go-slow.

The other major data piece will be US nonfarm payrolls for October, which will probably show the same story of a negative or lackluster headline result due to government related tightening and census firing, but the private payrolls will probably show a rise. Also in employment data is Canada, expected to show a small improvement, and New Zealand, also expected to show a small improvement. The other interesting data bits will be US consumer credit data for Sep (likely to be little changed), Australian house prices, PMI indices from a few other countries, and EU PPI.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Forex Pros
Forex Factory
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

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