Saturday, September 25, 2010

Economic Calendar - 26 September 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 26th of September 2010. This week there's additional GDP iterations due out from the US and UK, and of course given September ends this week (damn this year is going fast!) there will be the PMI stats out, with China and the US being the key ones to watch in that space. Japan also takes to the stage a few times this week with trade data, the quarterly Tankan survey, retail trade, industrial production, employment, and CPI data all due out this week. Of course the other key data in the US to watch will be the Case-Shiller house price index, and both the Conference Board and University of Michigan consumer confidence stats.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (AUG) 19.0 23.5
JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (AUG) 17.5 15.7
CNY Industrial Profits YTD YoY (AUG)
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP ) 1.3% 1.0%
TUE 08:30 GBP UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q F) 1.7% 1.7%
TUE 08:30 GBP UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F) 1.2% 1.2%
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (JUL)
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City (MoM) s.a. (JUL) -0.10% 0.28%
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUL) 3.10% 4.23%
TUE 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence (SEP)
TUE 21:45 NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (AUG)
TUE 21:45 NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (AUG)
TUE 23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (3Q)
TUE 23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (3Q)
TUE 23:50 JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex (3Q)
WED 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (SEP) 0.58 0.61
WED 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (SEP) -5 -4
WED 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (SEP F) -11 -11
WED 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (SEP) 101.3 101.8
WED 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (SEP) 7 7
WED 23:50 JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (AUG)
WED 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG P)

WED 02:00 NZD NBNZ Activity Outlook (SEP)
WED 02:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (SEP)
THU 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (SEP) -20K -17K
THU 12:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JUL) -0.1% 0.2%
THU 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q T) 1.8% 1.6%
THU 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q T)
THU 23:30 JPY Jobless Rate (AUG)
THU 23:30 JPY National CPI (YoY) (AUG) -0.9% -0.9%
THU 23:30 JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG) -1.5% -1.5%
THU 01:00 CNY PMI Manufacturing (SEP) 52.8 51.7
FRI 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (SEP F) 53.6 53.6
FRI 08:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing (SEP) 53.8 54.3
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (AUG) 10.0% 10.0%
FRI 12:30 USD Personal Income (AUG) 0.3% 0.2%
FRI 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure (YoY) 1.4% 1.4%
FRI 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (SEP F) 67.0 66.6
FRI 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing (SEP) 54.5 56.3

Starting off with the US data; the US is set to release another iteration of GDP data for Q2 this week, with consensus for the annualised rate to be 1.8%, the UK also releases another iteration of its Q2 GDP results this week; expecting to show 1.2% growth q/q. Probably one of the most important data pieces to watch will be the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index data, prices are forecast to come in more or less flat (for July) as the US housing market continues to be weighed down by the after effects of the housing crash/global financial crisis (synonyms?). The US also has two key measures of the consumer out (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, and Conference Board Consumer Confidence index), expectations are for the figure to come in more or less flat as the US economy muddles along.

Over in Japan there is a smorgasbord of data out this week, with the Tankan index probably being one of the most interesting to see (particularly in terms of outlook). There's also the critical export/import data, retail trade, and industrial production. In terms of inflation (aka deflation), the change in the consumer price index is expected to be more or less flat on a year on year basis, compare to July. But overall this swath of data will provide a good insight as to where the Japanese economy (now the 3rd largest economy behind China and the US by most measures) is and where it's headed.

Possibly one of the most interesting data points out this week will be the manufacturing PMI results from the US and China. The US is expected to see its PMI figure fall from 56.3 in in August to 54.5 in September, while China is expected to continue its rebound from its brief flirtation the 50 point mark; potentially rising to 52.8 from 51.7 in August. Of course for China its best to review both the Markit/HSBC PMI numbers as well as the official CFLP numbers to gain extra insight.

Elsewhere there's inflation data in Germany for September - expected to show a slight increase, New Zealand imports and exports, Euro-Zone confidence indices - broadly expected to remain relatively flat. Then there's business confidence in New Zealand, German unemployment change, Canadian GDP for the month of July, Euro-Zone and UK manufacturing PMI data, and EU unemployment rate (expected to stay around 10%).

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

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