Economic Calendar - 26 September 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 26th of September 2010. This week there's additional GDP iterations due out from the US and UK, and of course given September ends this week (damn this year is going fast!) there will be the PMI stats out, with China and the US being the key ones to watch in that space. Japan also takes to the stage a few times this week with trade data, the quarterly Tankan survey, retail trade, industrial production, employment, and CPI data all due out this week. Of course the other key data in the US to watch will be the Case-Shiller house price index, and both the Conference Board and University of Michigan consumer confidence stats.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day	Time (GMT)	Code	Event/Release	Forecast	Previous
MON		JPY	Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (AUG)	19.0	23.5
MON		JPY	Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (AUG)	17.5	15.7
MON		CNY	Industrial Profits YTD YoY (AUG)		81.6%
MON		EUR	German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP )	1.3%	1.0%
TUE	08:30	GBP	UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q F)	1.7%	1.7%
TUE	08:30	GBP	UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F)	1.2%	1.2%
TUE	13:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (JUL)		147.97
TUE	13:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City (MoM) s.a. (JUL)	-0.10%	0.28%
TUE	13:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUL)	3.10%	4.23%
TUE	14:00	USD	Consumer Confidence (SEP)		53.5
TUE	21:45	NZD	Imports (New Zealand dollars) (AUG)		3.75B
TUE	21:45	NZD	Exports (New Zealand dollars) (AUG)		3.57B
TUE	23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (3Q)		1
TUE	23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (3Q)		3
TUE	23:50	JPY	Tankan Large All Industry Capex (3Q)		4.4%
WED	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (SEP)	0.58	0.61
WED	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (SEP)	-5	-4
WED	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (SEP F)	-11	-11
WED	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (SEP)	101.3	101.8
WED	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Services Confidence (SEP)	7	7
WED	23:50	JPY	Retail Trade (YoY) (AUG)		3.9%
WED	23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG P)
WED	02:00	NZD	NBNZ Activity Outlook (SEP)		25.7
WED	02:00	NZD	NBNZ Business Confidence (SEP)		16.4
THU	07:55	EUR	German Unemployment Change (SEP)	-20K	-17K
THU	12:30	CAD	Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JUL)	-0.1%	0.2%
THU	12:30	USD	Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q T)	1.8%	1.6%
THU	12:30	USD	Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q T)		1.9%
THU	23:30	JPY	Jobless Rate (AUG)		5.2%
THU	23:30	JPY	National CPI (YoY) (AUG)	-0.9%	-0.9%
THU	23:30	JPY	National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG)	-1.5%	-1.5%
THU	01:00	CNY	PMI Manufacturing (SEP)	52.8	51.7
FRI	08:00	EUR	Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (SEP F)	53.6	53.6
FRI	08:30	GBP	PMI Manufacturing (SEP)	53.8	54.3
FRI	09:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (AUG)	10.0%	10.0%
FRI	12:30	USD	Personal Income (AUG)	0.3%	0.2%
FRI	12:30	USD	Personal Consumption Expenditure (YoY)	1.4%	1.4%
FRI	13:55	USD	U. of Michigan Confidence (SEP F)	67.0	66.6
FRI	14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing (SEP)	54.5	56.3

Starting off with the US data; the US is set to release another iteration of GDP data for Q2 this week, with consensus for the annualised rate to be 1.8%, the UK also releases another iteration of its Q2 GDP results this week; expecting to show 1.2% growth q/q. Probably one of the most important data pieces to watch will be the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index data, prices are forecast to come in more or less flat (for July) as the US housing market continues to be weighed down by the after effects of the housing crash/global financial crisis (synonyms?). The US also has two key measures of the consumer out (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, and Conference Board Consumer Confidence index), expectations are for the figure to come in more or less flat as the US economy muddles along.

Over in Japan there is a smorgasbord of data out this week, with the Tankan index probably being one of the most interesting to see (particularly in terms of outlook). There's also the critical export/import data, retail trade, and industrial production. In terms of inflation (aka deflation), the change in the consumer price index is expected to be more or less flat on a year on year basis, compare to July. But overall this swath of data will provide a good insight as to where the Japanese economy (now the 3rd largest economy behind China and the US by most measures) is and where it's headed.

Possibly one of the most interesting data points out this week will be the manufacturing PMI results from the US and China. The US is expected to see its PMI figure fall from 56.3 in in August to 54.5 in September, while China is expected to continue its rebound from its brief flirtation the 50 point mark; potentially rising to 52.8 from 51.7 in August. Of course for China its best to review both the Markit/HSBC PMI numbers as well as the official CFLP numbers to gain extra insight.

Elsewhere there's inflation data in Germany for September - expected to show a slight increase, New Zealand imports and exports, Euro-Zone confidence indices - broadly expected to remain relatively flat. Then there's business confidence in New Zealand, German unemployment change, Canadian GDP for the month of July, Euro-Zone and UK manufacturing PMI data, and EU unemployment rate (expected to stay around 10%).

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

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