Sunday, August 22, 2010

Economic Calendar - 23 August 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 23rd of August 2010. This week there's Q2 GDP results from 3 key developed economies; Germany, UK, and the US. On the US, there's also new home/existing home sales, the house price index, and both ABC and University of Michigan consumer sentiment indexes. Elsewhere, Japan will be releasing 3 key stats; exports, CPI, and employment figures. And of course another key feature of this week is the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the week; an exclusive monetary policy festival in the US.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
MON 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Services (AUG A) 55.5 55.8
MON 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Composite (AUG A) 56.4 56.7
MON 08:00
Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (AUG A) 56.4 56.7
MON 12:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index (JUL)
MON 14:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (AUG A) -13 -14
MON 03:00 NZD RBNZ 2-Year Inflation Expectation (3Q)
TUE 06:00 EUR German GDP s.a. (QoQ) (2Q F) 2.2%
TUE 06:00 EUR German GDP w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q F) 3.7% 1.6%
TUE 06:00 EUR German GDP n.s.a. (YoY) (2Q F) 4.1% 1.7%
TUE 06:00 EUR German Imports (2Q F)
TUE 06:00 EUR German Exports (2Q F)
TUE 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders s.a. (MoM) 1.5% 3.2%
TUE 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders (YoY) (JUN) 24.2% 22.9%
TUE 12:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)
TUE 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (JUL)
TUE 14:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (AUG) 12 16
TUE 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUL)
TUE 21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (JUL)

TUE 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (JUL) 19.8 26.1
TUE 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (JUL) 21.8 27.7
WED 12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (JUL) 3.0% -1.0%
WED 12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation (JUL) 0.5% -0.6%
WED 14:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (JUN)
WED 14:00 USD New Home Sales (JUL) 330K 330K
WED 14:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) 0.0% 23.6%
WED 14:00 USD House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (2Q)
THU 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 21) (AUG 21) 485K 500K
THU 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) -0.9% -0.7%
THU 23:30 JPY Jobless Rate (JUL) 5.3% 5.3%
THU 23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) -1.1% -1.2%
THU 00:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG P) 1.1% 1.2%

Jackson Hole Symposium (Monetary Policy)

FRI 08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q P) 1.1% 1.1%
FRI 08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q P) 1.6% 1.6%
FRI 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q S) 1.4% 2.4%
FRI 12:30 USD Personal Consumption (2Q S) 1.7% 1.6%
FRI 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q S) 1.8% 1.8%
FRI 12:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) 1.1% 1.1%
FRI 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG F) 70.0 69.6

Jackson Hole Symposium (Monetary Policy)

So the main data releases dues out this week are some more Q2 GDP results from some pretty key developed economies. Up first is Germany, which is expected to show year on year growth of 3.7%, compared to 1.6%; as one of the EU's strongest economies recovers well due to its relatively stronger fiscal position and machine exports to China. The next up is the UK, which is expected to show similar results to that of Q1 this year as the British economy muddles along. Then there's the US; which is expected to show 1.4% compared to 2.4% last time; as the growth decelerates into the double dip or muddle ages of the recovery.

Another key set of data out this week is the stats due from Japan. First up is Japan's international trade stats with merchandise trade imports and exports for July; both are expected to show slightly lower growth on an annual basis; these stats will be critical to watch as the Japanese economy has shown itself to be particularly sensitive to international trade. The next set of data from Japan is the CPI data, which is forecast to show the deflation rate (usually we call it the inflation rate when we talk CPI, but Japan has been so mired in deflation...). The jobless rate is also due out and expected to come in around 5.3%

As for the other bits of data out this week the main other ones of interest are (in no particular order); starting in the EU, there's EU consumer confidence, expected to remain pretty sick, EU PMI; sideways like a crab, and industrial new orders; growing but slightly less than May. In the US; existing home sales, ABC consumer confidence, durable goods orders - expected to pick up, new home sales - flat to to sideways at best, and UoM consumer sentiment on Friday - with maybe a slight increase. The RBNZ in New Zealand will also issue it's 2-year inflation expectation figures - important to monitor in the context of monetary policy, interest rates, and the NZD.

And on the topic of monetary policy, the Jackson Hole Symposium kicks off on Thursday in the US, with a star-studded line-up of central bankers from all over the world; where a couple of days of intensive debate and discussion will take place on the state of the global economy and the course of monetary policy. So keep monitoring the media around those days for what might emerge, in case anything of interest arises. The talk will probably focus on exit strategies, and how to avoid double-dips, lost decades, deflations, depressions, despair, destitution, etc.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Forex Pros
Forex Factory
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

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