Sunday, August 1, 2010

Economic Calendar - 2 August 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 2nd of August 2010. This week there's US ISM PMI for July, following China's weekend release of their PMI numbers. On the monetary policy front, there's the RBA, BoE, and ECB all meeting this week to review policy settings. It's also a big employment numbers week, with the US (nonfarm payrolls), Canada, and New Zealand releasing their recent employment statistics.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
MON 03:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price (JUL)
MON 08:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL)
MON 14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid (JUL)
MON 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing (JUL)
MON 14:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JUN)
TUE 01:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
TUE 04:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (AUG 3) 4.50% 4.50%
TUE 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)
TUE 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
TUE 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure (YoY) (JUN)
TUE 12:30 USD Personal Income (JUN) 0.30% 0.4%
TUE 12:30 USD Personal Spending (JUN) 0.20% 0.2%
TUE 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure (MoM) (JUN) 0.20% 0.2%
TUE 21:00 USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (JUL)
TUE 21:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales (JUL)
WED 01:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JUN)
WED 01:30 AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (2Q)
WED 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)
WED 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)
WED 14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (JUL)
WED 22:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (2Q)
WED 22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate (2Q)
THU 01:30 AUD Reserve Bank Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement

THU 11:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (AUG) 0.50% 0.50%
THU 11:00 GBP Bank of England Asset Purchase Target AUG 200B 200B
THU 11:45 EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (AUG) 1.00% 1.00%
FRI 04:00 GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (JUL)
FRI 08:30 GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL)
FRI 08:30 GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)
FRI 08:30 GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL)
FRI 09:00 EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2QP)
FRI 09:00 EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q P)
FRI 10:00 EUR German Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)
FRI 11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate (JUL)
FRI 11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment (JUL)
FRI 12:30 USD Unemployment Rate (JUL)
FRI 12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (JUL)
FRI 14:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (JUL)
FRI 19:00 USD Consumer Credit (JUN)

One of the key statistics out this week will be the ISM Purchasing Manager Index for July. This will be one to watch closely for more clues on how things are tracking 1 month into the second half of this year. It will also be interest to see in the context of China just releasing their PMI number in the weekend; recording 51.2, down from 52.1, as seasonal and government factors put the brakes on activity slightly.

In monetary policy it is likely to be a boring week in spite of the three high profile central banks meeting this week. The RBA is unlikely to increase the interest rate, instead opting to wait and see. The Bank of England wont be tightening just yet (and further easing is pretty low probability). The ECB will likewise just sit on their hands, but of course the accompanying statement will be very informative as usual.

On the employment front, the much watched US nonfarm payrolls figure will also add further clues to the state of the US economy - will we see a pick up? or will further signs of a double-dip show through? Canada will also report, but is in a better position than the US. New Zealand will also release its quarterly employment report, and will likely show further improvement.

Elsewhere, statistics releases of interest this week include; US consumer credit (a good update on this sector - expect continued weakness), Aussie retail sales and EU retail sales, producer price index for the EU and UK, and Italian Q2 GDP - as well as the July estimate for the UK; there's also the US personal consumption expenditure report.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Forex Pros
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+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

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