Sunday, August 8, 2010

Econ Grapher - Economic Calendar - 9 August 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 9th of August 2010. This week China takes the spotlight with its monthly data dump; there's new loans, money supply, trade balance, CPI, fixed asset investment, industrial production, PPI, and retail sales. Then on the monetary policy front there's Japan, and the US who both meet to review policy this week. The EU is set to announce its second quarter GDP results this week, and from the US will be CPI, UoM & ABC confidence numbers, and the trade balance. Elsewhere there's employment numbers from Australia, consumer confidence from Japan, and house prices in New Zealand.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
CNY New Loans 600B 603B
CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 18.6% 18.5%
MON 04:00 JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (AUG 9)

MON 06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JUN) 12.0B 9.7B
MON 22:45 NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUL)
MON 23:50 JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (2Q)
CNY Trade Balance 19.6B 20.0B
TUE 04:00 JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (AUG 10) 0.10% 0.10%
TUE 06:45 EUR French Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) 7.3% 8.2%
TUE 11:30 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (JUL)
TUE 18:15 USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
TUE 21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (AUG)

TUE 22:00 CNY CPI y/y 3.3% 2.9%
TUE 22:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 25.4% 25.5%
TUE 22:00 CNY Industrial Production y/y 13.5% 13.7%
TUE 22:00 CNY PPI y/y 6.1% 6.4%
TUE 22:00 CNY Retail Sales y/y 18.6% 18.3%
TUE 00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (AUG)
TUE 00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (AUG)
WED 09:30 GBP Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report

WED 12:30 USD Trade Balance (JUN) -$42.2B -$42.3B
WED 18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement (JUL) -$165.0B -$180.7B
WED 22:30 NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index
WED 01:30 AUD Employment Change (JUL) 20.0K 45.9K
WED 01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (JUL)
THU 04:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN F)
THU 05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence (JUL) 43.9 43.6
THU 05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Households (JUL) 43.9 43.5
THU 08:00 EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report (AUG)

THU 09:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Total) (euros) (JUN)
THU 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) 9.3% 9.4%
THU 22:00 NZD REINZ Housing Price Index MoM% (JUL)
THU 22:00 NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (JUL)
THU 22:45 NZD Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN) 0.5% 0.4%
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (JUN)
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)
FRI 12:30 USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)
FRI 12:30 USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)
FRI 12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales (JUL)
FRI 12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos (JUL)
FRI 12:30 USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (JUL)
FRI 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG P)

Starting with the economy of the week, China will be reporting it's major data points this week for July. The first batch will likely be the data from the PBOC which includes lending data (which by the way will likely be fairly static around 600B as the regulators crack down on excessive lending), and money supply data, then there's the trade data from the customs department, which is likely to be unchanged, but as always - I'm keeping a close eye on the export/import levels as a kind of proxy for international trade volumes and as a bit of a gauge for global activity - i.e. if there's another major slump it will show up in Chinese exports. Then there's the data from the National Bureau of Statistics; inflation is likely to pick up a bit, and industrial production will likely follow the course suggested by the PMI readings i.e. down; the rest will likely be fairly standard.

Now, onto the monetary policy reviews; Japan is likely to be fairly ho-hum, to be sure - likely not to see any changes in the i-rate for quite a while; the only thing to watch for would be any additional stimulus measures e.g. the lending program they previously announced. The US is likely to be a similar story, but the rumors are increasing... or more likely the speculation is increasing that the Fed may implement additional stimulus measures to cement the recovery and counter any possibility of a double-dip recession (which remains a real risk).

Keeping with the US, there's also the other consumer confidence indicators from there; the ABC index, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the trade balance (which is expected to stay around negative 42B), the consumer price index (which is likely to show inflation around 1%), the monthly budget statement, and of course retail sales on Friday. The data points will add to the picture for the US economy, which is looking increasingly mixed - albeit weighted to the downside.

Elsewhere in the world there's the second quarter GDP figures from the EU, which will attract considerable interest given the recent financial system and sovereign debt concerns raised around there. Aside from the US, the other economies reporting confidence are Japan; which is expected to rise slightly, and Australia, which will likely be about sideways as the election draws near. The Aussies have also got their employment numbers out this week, which are likely to show continued jobs growth; likely better than New Zealand's results - who is set to release July house price data on Thursday.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

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