Sunday, August 29, 2010

Econ Grapher - Economic Calendar - 30 August 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 30th of August 2010. This week there's Q2 GDP results from Canada, Australia, Switzerland, and the EU. And of course given that this week brings the start of September we've got PMI figures out of China, the US, and a range of other countries. The other notables will be S&P/Case-Shiller house prices, US consumer confidence, Canada and Aussie current accounts, an ECB rate non-decision and of course US nonfarm payrolls.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code


Forecast Previous
MON NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) 3.70B 3.51B
MON NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) 3.65B 3.78B
MON AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (2Q) 5.8% 3.9%
MON NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (AUG) 27.9
MON 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (AUG) 101.6 101.3
MON 12:30 CAD Current Account (BoP) (Canadian dollar) (2Q) -$10.0B -$7.8B
MON 12:30 USD Personal Income (JUL) 0.3% 0.0%
MON 12:30 USD Personal Spending (JUL) 0.3% 0.0%
MON 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) 1.4% 1.4%
MON 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL P) -0.2% -1.1%
MON 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P) 14.3% 17.3%
MON 23:50 JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JUL) 0.5% 0.4%
MON 23:50 JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL) 3.5% 3.2%
MON 01:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUL) 0.4% 0.2%
MON 01:30 AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (2Q) -6500M -16551M
TUE 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (AUG) -20K -20K
TUE 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (AUG) 7.6% 7.6%
TUE 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (AUG) 1.6% 1.7%
TUE 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUL) 10.0% 10.0%
TUE 12:30 CAD Quarterly GDP Annualized (2Q) 2.5% 6.1%
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 s.a. (MoM) (JUN) 0.35% 0.47%
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUN) 3.50% 4.61%
TUE 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence (AUG) 51.0 50.4
TUE 18:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes (AUG 31)
TUE 01:00 CNY Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (AUG) 51.5 51.2
TUE 01:00 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI 49.4
TUE 01:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q) 0.9% 0.5%
TUE 01:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) 2.8% 2.7%
TUE 03:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price (AUG) -0.8%
WED 07:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing (AUG F) 58.2 58.2
WED 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (AUG F)
WED 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing (AUG) 53.0 55.5
WED 14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid (AUG) 56.0 57.5
WED 01:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JUL) 3100M 3539M
THU 05:45 CHF Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q) 0.8% 0.4%
THU 05:45 CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) 2.6% 2.2%
THU 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) (2Q P) 1.0% 1.0%
THU 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) (2Q P) 1.7% 1.7%
THU 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) 3.9% 3.0%
THU 11:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (SEP 2) 1.00% 1.00%
THU 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) -1.5% -2.6%
THU 14:00 USD Factory Orders (JUL) 0.5% -1.2%
THU EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) 0.5% -0.9%
FRI 07:15 CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) 0.4% 0.4%
FRI 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Services (AUG F) 55.6 55.6
FRI 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Composite (AUG F) 56.1 56.1
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) 0.2% 0.0%
FRI 12:30 USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (AUG) -105K -131K
FRI 12:30 USD Unemployment Rate (AUG) 9.6% 9.5%
FRI 12:30 USD Change in Private Payrolls (AUG) 46K 71K
FRI 14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (AUG) 53.5 54.3

This week we've got more Q2 GDP results out; first up will be Canada, which is expected to show an annualised quarterly growth rate of 2.5% vs 6.1% the previous quarter. Then there's Australia, expected to shrug-off the election issues and clock up 0.9% q/q for Q2. Then there's the EU data, with the Swiss expected to show 0.8% q/q and the wider EU with 1.0%. More or less all lining up with the post-recession recovery bounce, but the key question will be who's still growing come Q3 and Q4... because the easy part of the recovery is over, time for the real hard work to begin!

Now there are a few countries releasing PMI data this week, but no doubt all eyes will be on the two juggernauts; China and the US. Both are going to play critical roles in the course of the global economy over the coming period. China is expected to show a slight rebound - and what ever the figure is it will send strong signals (a weaker figure will confirm the slowdown, a stronger figure will suggest continued growth, and something in between will leave uncertainty in its wake). The US; manufacturing is the strong point, so let's watch this one closely - will the last bastion of the US economic recovery fall?

Another area of interest this week will be the international trade and capital flows; Canada will report its Q2 current account balance, and is expected to show a larger deficit... then Aus will also release its Q2 figure but a smaller deficit is expected. New Zealand will release its trade figures early Monday; with imports expected to jump above exports for the first time in about a year, and Aus will release its July trade balance later in the week.

Elsewhere there's the increasingly important S&P Case Shiller home price index, and US consumer confidence numbers - both will give important insights into the course of the downward spiral of the US economy; as will the nonfarm payroll figures on Friday. In Japan there's industrial production figures and retail trade - both of importance for the Japanese economy which is sitting at the watershed. And of course last but not least there's the ECB monetary policy announcement - not a huge probability of anything significant here, but watch for their analysis anyway... the US Fed will be putting out its recent meeting minutes too.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

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