Saturday, July 24, 2010

Economic Calendar - 26 July 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 26th of July 2010. This week the main event is Q2 GDP for the US, there's also the monthly GDP figure from Canada. The US also has the S&P Case-Shiller house price index, and consumer confidence. Elsewhere there's the RBNZ in New Zealand, which is expected to hike rates again. There's also a lot of key data out of Japan such as the jobless rate, retail sales, and industrial production; the Euro Zone also releases CPI and unemployment data.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
MON 1:30 AUD Producer Price Index (YoY) (2Q) 1.5% -0.1%
MON 12:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index (JUN)
MON 14:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) 6.7% -32.7%
MON 14:00 USD New Home Sales (JUN) 320K 300K
TUE 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JUN) -0.1% -0.2%
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (MAY) 3.75% 3.81%
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (MAY)
TUE 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence (JUL) 51.8 52.9
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL P) 1.2% 0.9%
WED 1:30 AUD Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (2Q) 1.0% 0.9%
WED 1:30 AUD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (2Q) 3.4% 2.9%
WED 3:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (JUL)
WED 3:00 NZD NBNZ Activity Outlook (JUL)
WED 8:00 EUR ECB Publishes Bank Lending Survey

WED 12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (JUN) 0.8% -1.1%
WED 12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation (JUN) 0.5% 0.9%
WED 18:00 USD Fed Publishes Beige Book Economic Report

WED 21:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision 3.00% 2.75%
WED 22:45 NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JUN) 368M 814M
WED 23:50 JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JUN) 0.4% -2.0%
WED 23:50 JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JUN) 3.2% 2.8%
THU 1:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JUN)
THU 7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL) 7.6% 7.7%
THU 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JUL) 99.0 98.7
THU 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (JUL) 0.39 0.37
THU 23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUL) -21 -19
THU 23:30 JPY Jobless Rate (JUN) 5.2% 5.2%
THU 23:30 JPY Household Spending (YoY) (JUN) -0.8% -0.7%
THU 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) -0.7% -0.9%
THU 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN P) 18.9% 20.4%
FRI 5:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JUN) 1.8% -4.6%
FRI 5:00 JPY Annualized Housing Starts (JUN) 0.759M 0.737M
FRI 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (JUL) 1.8% 1.4%
FRI 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUN) 10.0% 10.0%
FRI 12:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (MAY) 0.1% 0.0%
FRI 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q A) 2.5% 2.7%
FRI 12:30 USD Personal Consumption (2Q A) 2.3% 3.0%
FRI 12:30 USD Employment Cost Index (2Q) 0.5% 0.6%
FRI 13:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (JUL) 56.0 59.1
FRI 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL F) 67.5 66.5
FRI 20:15 USD Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index (APR) (JUL)
SAT 22:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI

Starting with the main event, the US economy is expected to show an annualised growth rate of 2.5% in the second quarter of 2010, which will be slightly lower than the previous 2.7%. As I've often pointed to, it's likely that the first half of 2010 will be as good as it gets for this year, with either slower or downright double-dip material showing up in the second half.

On the inflation front, we've got several countries reporting CPI figures; first up is Australia, which is expected to show an annual inflation rate of 3.4% for the second quarter (up from 2.9% in Q1). Japan is expected to show further deflation with -0.7% year on year (vs -0.9% in May). The EU is also expected to show a slight pick up, to 1.8% from 1.4%.

There's also several confidence indicator updates, there's the US with the conference board consumer confidence index; expected to slip further to 51.8 from 52.9, and at the end of the week there's also the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index which is expected to rise slightly to 67.5 from 66.5. There's also National Bank of New Zealand business confidence, EU economic confidence, and China PMI.

It's also generally a heavy data week for Japan and the US. The US has the Fed's Beige Book economic report out, and the updates on the US housing market continue with S&P Case Shiller home price index (along with new home sales the day before), durable goods orders, and personal consumption stats, so it will provide a good insight into where the US is tracking.

In Japan there's retail sales, the jobless rate, CPI, industrial production, and housing starts - so it will also be good to get an update on where the world's 3rd or 2nd (depending how you measure) largest economy.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Forex Pros
Forex Factory
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

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