Sunday, July 18, 2010

Economic Calendar - 19 July 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 19th of July 2010. This week there's multiple data points out on the US housing market, with June housing starts, building permits, existing home sales, and the house price index for May. There's also the first developed market GDP figures out on Friday from the UK, which also has retail sales out. On the monetary policy front the Bank of Canada is looking set to raise rates again. There's also PMI and confidence numbers due from Australia, New Zealand, and Europe.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
MON 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (MAY)
MON 14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (JUL) 16 17
TUE 1:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes

TUE 5:00 JPY Leading Index (MAY F)
TUE 6:15 CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (JUN)
TUE 8:30 GBP Major Banks Mortgage Approvals (JUN) 52K 51K
TUE 8:30 GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JUN) 16.0B 12.0B
TUE 12:30 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (JUN) -2.8% -10.0%
TUE 12:30 USD Housing Starts (JUN) 577K 593K
TUE 12:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (JUN) -0.7% -5.9%
TUE 12:30 USD Building Permits (JUN) 570K 574K
TUE 13:00 CAD Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.50%
TUE 22:45 NZD New Zealand Net Migration s.a. (JUN)
WED 3:00 NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
WED 8:30 GBP Bank of England Meeting Minutes

WED 14:00 AUD NAB Business Confidence (2Q)
WED 14:00 USD Ben Bernanke Testifies to Senate Banking Panel

THU 3:00 NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (JUL)
THU 4:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAY) -0.4% 1.8%
THU 7:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing (JUL A) 58.0 58.4
THU 7:30 EUR German PMI Services (JUL A) 54.5 54.8
THU 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (JUL A) 55.2 55.6
THU 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Services (JUL A) 55.0 55.5
THU 8:30 GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (JUN) 2.4% 3.4%
THU 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAY) -0.1% 0.9%
THU 12:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) 0.5% -2.0%
THU 13:30 USD Ben Bernanke Testifies to House Financial Committee

THU 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) -8.1% -2.2%
THU 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (JUN) 5.20M 5.66M
THU 14:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (MAY) -0.3% 0.8%
THU 14:00 USD Leading Indicators (JUN) -0.3% 0.4%
THU 14:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUL A) -17 -17
EUR EU European Bank Stress Test Results Due

FRI 1:30 AUD Export Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) 12.0% 3.8%
FRI 8:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate (JUL) 101.5 101.8
FRI 8:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations (JUL) 101.5 102.4
FRI 8:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q A) 1.1% -0.2%
FRI 8:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q A) 0.6% 0.3%
FRI 11:00 CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 0.9% 1.4%
FRI 11:00 CAD Bank Canada CPI Core (YoY) (JUN) 1.9% 1.8%

One of the main events this week is UK GDP, the first advanced economy to report (with China reporting year on year growth of 10.3% last week in Q2 2010). Expectations are for quarterly growth to accelerate from 0.3% to 0.6%, and year on year growth to improve to 1.1% from -0.2%, as the UK economy struggles along out of its deepest ever recession. The UK is also set to report retail sales for June, with the year on year growth expected to slip slightly.

On the US housing front, housing starts are forecast to ease, and on a year on year basis will still be in negative territory. Building permits are likewise expected to remain subdued. In terms of existing home sales, the figure is expected to drop as the stimulus measures wane, and will likely see the year on year change drop further. The house price index is also expected to drop off month on month in May, versus a small rise in April.

In monetary policy, the Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates again to 0.75% from 0.50% as the risk of inflation rises over the risks of sustaining the recovery for the Canadian economy (one of the lucky developed economies). There is also the meeting minutes due out from the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of England, and of course in the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will be testifying before the Senate Banking Panel, and the House Financial Committee

Elsewhere there's the ANZ consumer confidence index in New Zealand, and the NAB business confidence index in Australia, as well as PMI indexes for July across Europe and the aggregate Euro-Zone index, which is widely expected to weaken slightly.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

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  1. Canada is not one of the "lucky" economies, we have leaders who shut down crazy lending et al so we wouldnt be in the bog.

  2. @Stewart ...agreed - that's one of the things they're lucky about, I think it's a similar situation with Aus, there wasn't the same degree of lending madness as in the US (there was some, but not systemically significant).


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