Sunday, July 4, 2010

Economic Calendar - 5 July 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 5th of July 2010. This week there's a couple more PMI figures out, following the disappointing results from China and the US last week. There's also interest rate decisions due from Australia and Europe, with no changes expected. Other than that the other notables are employment figures from Australia and Canada, and industrial production metrics from UK, Germany, and consumer credit stats from the US.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
MON 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Services (JUN F) 55.4 55.4
MON 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Composite (JUN F) 56.0 56.0
MON 8:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUN) 55.0 55.4
MON 8:30 EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (JUL)
MON 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) 0.5% -1.2%
MON 22:00 NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey (2Q)
TUE 1:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAY) 500M 134M
TUE 4:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 4.50% 4.50%
TUE 5:00 JPY Leading Index (MAY P) 98.9 101.7
TUE 7:15 CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 1.0% 1.1%
TUE 14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (JUN) 55.0 55.4
WED 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) (1Q F) 0.2% 0.2%
WED 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) (1Q F) 0.6% 0.6%
WED 10:00 EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAY) 0.4% 2.8%
WED 14:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (JUN) 64.0 62.7
WED 23:50 JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (MAY) 1199.8B 1379.6B
WED 23:50 JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (MAY) -3.0% 4.0%
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUN)
THU 1:30 AUD Employment Change (JUN) 15.0K 26.9K
THU 1:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (JUN) 5.2% 5.2%
THU 4:00 JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUN)
THU 6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUN P)
THU 6:00 EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (MAY) 13.5B 13.4B
THU 8:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY) 0.3% -0.4%
THU 10:00 EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MAY) 0.8% 0.9%
THU 11:00 GBP Bank of England Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
THU 11:00 GBP Bank of England Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B
THU 11:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
THU 19:00 USD Consumer Credit (MAY) -$2.0B $1.0B
THU 22:45 NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUN)
FRI 8:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAY) -7.000B -7.279B
FRI 8:30 GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a.(JUN) 5.7% 5.7%
FRI 11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment (JUN) 20.0K 24.7K
FRI 11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate (JUN) 8.1% 8.1%
FRI 12:15 CAD Housing Starts (JUN) 193.0K 189.1K

First up is PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), the results last week were not flash, China showed a still lower PMI - pointing to a loss of momentum and potential slowdown. The US also disappointed significantly on its manufacturing index, but it will release the NMI or non-manufacturing PMI this week; expectations are for a small fall, so this will be one to watch closely - especially to see if there's been the same kind of drop off in the prices index. Others to release this week include: Canada; expected to show improvement, EU; expected to come in flat, and UK; expected to show a small drop.

On the Monetary Policy front, the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is up first, and in all probability will likely leave rates at 4.50%. The RBA has been the most aggressive developed nation on policy tightening, but will likely sit tight for now until further signs of improvement in the global economy start to come through. The ECB (European Central Bank) and BoE (Bank of England) on the other hand will not be doing any tightening for the foreseeable future, if anything they could even loosen. But it's basically stay the course and wait for the recovery to roll around.

Canada and Australia are set to release their employment reports this week, following the US releasing nonfarm payrolls last week (which showed the first negative in 5 months at -125k, but positive when only the private sector was considered due to the distorting census hiring effect). Both Canada and Australia are expected to show improvement in their employment situation - and this is unsurprising given their to-date golden run (being amongst the only developed nations in a position to tighten monetary policy so far).

As for the other releases, Industrial Production will feature, with Germany and the UK both expected to report; both are expected to show a small positive. The EU will also release its final figure for Q1 GDP, and the US will report Consumer Credit (expected to contract), and China will likely begin its data reporting next weekend with the trade balance.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

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