Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 5th of July 2010. This week there's a couple more PMI figures out, following the disappointing results from China and the US last week. There's also interest rate decisions due from Australia and Europe, with no changes expected. Other than that the other notables are employment figures from Australia and Canada, and industrial production metrics from UK, Germany, and consumer credit stats from the US.
(More commentary follows the table)
|MON||8:00||EUR||Euro-Zone PMI Services (JUN F)||55.4||55.4|
|MON||8:00||EUR||Euro-Zone PMI Composite (JUN F)||56.0||56.0|
|MON||8:30||GBP||Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUN)||55.0||55.4|
|MON||8:30||EUR||Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (JUL)||-4.1|
|MON||9:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY)||0.5%||-1.2%|
|MON||22:00||NZD||NZIER Business Opinion Survey (2Q)||22|
|TUE||1:30||AUD||Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAY)||500M||134M|
|TUE||4:30||AUD||RBA Interest Rate Decision||4.50%||4.50%|
|TUE||5:00||JPY||Leading Index (MAY P)||98.9||101.7|
|TUE||7:15||CHF||Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)||1.0%||1.1%|
|TUE||14:00||USD||ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (JUN)||55.0||55.4|
|WED||9:00||EUR||Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) (1Q F)||0.2%||0.2%|
|WED||9:00||EUR||Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) (1Q F)||0.6%||0.6%|
|WED||10:00||EUR||German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAY)||0.4%||2.8%|
|WED||14:00||CAD||Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (JUN)||64.0||62.7|
|WED||23:50||JPY||Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (MAY)||1199.8B||1379.6B|
|WED||23:50||JPY||Machine Orders (MoM) (MAY)||-3.0%||4.0%|
|THU||GBP||NIESR GDP Estimate (JUN)||0.6%|
|THU||JPY||Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUN)||48.7|
|THU||1:30||AUD||Employment Change (JUN)||15.0K||26.9K|
|THU||1:30||AUD||Unemployment Rate (JUN)||5.2%||5.2%|
|THU||4:00||JPY||Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUN)||-15.1%|
|THU||6:00||JPY||Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUN P)||192.5%|
|THU||6:00||EUR||German Trade Balance (euros) (MAY)||13.5B||13.4B|
|THU||8:30||GBP||Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY)||0.3%||-0.4%|
|THU||10:00||EUR||German Industrial Production s.a. (MAY)||0.8%||0.9%|
|THU||11:00||GBP||Bank of England Interest Rate Decision||0.50%||0.50%|
|THU||11:00||GBP||Bank of England Asset Purchase Target||200B||200B|
|THU||11:45||EUR||ECB Interest Rate Decision||1.00%||1.00%|
|THU||19:00||USD||Consumer Credit (MAY)||-$2.0B||$1.0B|
|THU||22:45||NZD||NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUN)||0.4%|
|FRI||8:30||GBP||Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAY)||-7.000B||-7.279B|
|FRI||8:30||GBP||Producer Price Index Output n.s.a.(JUN)||5.7%||5.7%|
|FRI||11:00||CAD||Net Change in Employment (JUN)||20.0K||24.7K|
|FRI||11:00||CAD||Unemployment Rate (JUN)||8.1%||8.1%|
|FRI||12:15||CAD||Housing Starts (JUN)||193.0K||189.1K|
First up is PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), the results last week were not flash, China showed a still lower PMI - pointing to a loss of momentum and potential slowdown. The US also disappointed significantly on its manufacturing index, but it will release the NMI or non-manufacturing PMI this week; expectations are for a small fall, so this will be one to watch closely - especially to see if there's been the same kind of drop off in the prices index. Others to release this week include: Canada; expected to show improvement, EU; expected to come in flat, and UK; expected to show a small drop.
On the Monetary Policy front, the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is up first, and in all probability will likely leave rates at 4.50%. The RBA has been the most aggressive developed nation on policy tightening, but will likely sit tight for now until further signs of improvement in the global economy start to come through. The ECB (European Central Bank) and BoE (Bank of England) on the other hand will not be doing any tightening for the foreseeable future, if anything they could even loosen. But it's basically stay the course and wait for the recovery to roll around.
Canada and Australia are set to release their employment reports this week, following the US releasing nonfarm payrolls last week (which showed the first negative in 5 months at -125k, but positive when only the private sector was considered due to the distorting census hiring effect). Both Canada and Australia are expected to show improvement in their employment situation - and this is unsurprising given their to-date golden run (being amongst the only developed nations in a position to tighten monetary policy so far).
As for the other releases, Industrial Production will feature, with Germany and the UK both expected to report; both are expected to show a small positive. The EU will also release its final figure for Q1 GDP, and the US will report Consumer Credit (expected to contract), and China will likely begin its data reporting next weekend with the trade balance.
So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...
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