Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 7th of June 2010. This week there's the monthly data release from China, with CPI, fixed asset investment, industrial production, retail sales, new loans, trade balance. On trade balances, there's also trade figures from the UK, Japan, Canada, Germany, and the US. The US also has consumer credit, retail sales, UoM consumer sentiment, and the Fed's Beige Book economic report. On the monetary policy front there's reviews by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank.
(More commentary follows the table)
|MON||8:30||EUR||Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (JUN)||-7||-6.4|
|MON||19:00||USD||Consumer Credit (APR)||$0.0B||$2.0B|
|MON||22:45||NZD||Manufacturing Activity (1Q)||0.7%|
|MON||23:50||JPY||Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (APR)||871.9B||1074.7B|
|TUE||5:45||CHF||Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAY)||3.9%||4.0%|
|TUE||6:00||JPY||Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (MAY)||49.9|
|TUE||6:00||EUR||German Trade Balance (euros) (APR)||15.0B||17.2B|
|TUE||7:15||CHF||Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)||1.2%||1.4%|
|TUE||10:00||EUR||German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (APR)||0.7%||4.0%|
|TUE||23:01||GBP||Nationwide Consumer Confidence (MAY)||72||74|
|TUE||23:50||JPY||Machine Orders (YoY) (APR)||7.3%||1.2%|
|TUE||CNY||M2 Money Supply y/y||21.3%||21.5%|
|WED||0:30||AUD||Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUN)||-7.0%|
|WED||1:30||AUD||Home Loans (APR)||-2.0%||-3.4%|
|WED||8:30||GBP||Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (APR)||-7.000B||-7.522B|
|WED||14:00||USD||Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Testifies at House Budget Committee|
|WED||18:00||USD||Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Report|
|WED||21:00||NZD||RBNZ Interest Rate Decision||2.75%||2.50%|
|WED||22:45||NZD||Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (1Q)||5.7%|
|WED||23:50||JPY||Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q F)||1.0%||1.2%|
|WED||23:50||JPY||Gross Domestic Product Annualized (1Q F)||4.2%||4.9%|
|WED||23:50||JPY||Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (1Q F)||-3.0%||-3.0%|
|THU||1:30||AUD||Employment Change (MAY)||20.0K||33.7K|
|THU||1:30||AUD||Unemployment Rate (MAY)||5.4%||5.4%|
|THU||5:00||JPY||Consumer Confidence Households (MAY)||42.0||42.0|
|THU||9:00||EUR||Italian Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q F)||0.6%||-3.0%|
|THU||11:00||GBP||Bank of England Interest Rate Decision||0.50%||0.50%|
|THU||11:00||GBP||Bank of England Asset Purchase Target||200B||200B|
|THU||11:45||EUR||European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision||1.00%||1.00%|
|THU||12:30||CAD||International Merchandise Trade (CAD) (APR)||0.7B||0.3B|
|THU||12:30||USD||Trade Balance (APR)||-$41.0B||-$40.4B|
|THU||18:00||USD||Monthly Budget Statement (MAY)||-$140.0B||-$82.7B|
|THU||22:00||CNY||Fixed Asset Investment||25.8%||26.1%|
|THU||22:00||CNY||Industrial Production (YoY)||17.3%||17.8%|
|THU||22:00||CNY||Retail Sales y/y||18.6%||18.5%|
|FRI||GBP||NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate||0.5%|
|FRI||8:30||GBP||Industrial Production (YoY) (APR)||2.3%||2.0%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Advance Retail Sales (MAY)||0.2%||0.4%|
|FRI||13:55||USD||U. of Michigan Confidence (JUN P)||75.0||73.6|
Starting off with China, there's new loans and money supply from the PBOC which will both be informative in terms of concerns around overheating and bubble building (obviously greater loan growth means greater potential flows into asset markets). Then there's the trade balance which will also be an interesting one given some of the recent results, consensus is for a bit of normalisation there with the median around 8 billion.
Then there's the usual stats from the NBS; CPI, which is expected to show further growth in inflation, fixed asset investment (expect continued strong growth around 26%), industrial production (expect a slight tapering off given the PMI), and retail sales (expect growth to be maintained around 18-19%).
On the monetary policy front, first up is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which is widely expected to lift the official cash rate to 2.75% from 2.50%, as the New Zealand economy makes a gradual recovery. Meanwhile the Bank of England is expected to hold rates and the asset purchase program unchanged; likewise the European Central Bank is expected to hold the rate steady (not that it could really do much except for a token drop to try poke around with confidence).
There could be scope for a curve ball from the ECB, but it will probably be similar to last meeting, note no change, note all the challenges, and note the previous moves taken. On a related note the US Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book economic report, which may make for some interesting bedtime reading.
Keeping with the US, first data point out will be consumer credit for April, which consensus says no change, versus the previous $2 billion increase (one might expect slow or no growth given the trend and need for deleveraging). The other key ones out will be at the end of the week with retail sales expected to make a slight improvement, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment indicator expected to rise slightly.
The US is also set to put out its May monthly budget statement, and its April trade balance, with consensus for -$41 billion vs -$40.4 billion in March, the trade deficit trend is likely to continue on the back of energy imports, and no real trend towards a structural rebalancing towards exports.
Briefly on trade, Japan is expected to show a slightly lower trade surplus for April, the UK is expected to show a slightly improved deficit, Germany is expected to report a lower surplus, and Canada is expected to show a slightly improved surplus. Elsewhere, Japan will give an update on its GDP, with the forecast for 1% q/q growth in Q1.
There's also an update to Q1 GDP for Italy, with consensus for 0.6% y/y, and the NIESR will update on its May GDP numbers for the UK. On employment, Australia will report its employment figures, expected to show another 20k jobs added, and an unemployment rate of 5.4%.
So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, stay tuned for updates...
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+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification
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