Saturday, June 19, 2010

Economic Calendar - 21 June 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 21st of June 2010. This week there's Q1 GDP from New Zealand, and the third estimate of US Q1 GDP (the US also has the FOMC interest rate non-decision). Then there's inflation numbers from Canada and Japan. Trade figures from Japan, and New Zealand, who also has its current account balance for Q1 due out this week (the Euro-Zone will also announce its current account balance for April). Also on the radar is the G-20 meeting next weekend, and of course the week will be made interesting by the announcement from China this weekend about further reforms to the Yuan policy.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
MON 4:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (APR) 2.0% -0.8%
GBP U.K. Government Publishes Budget Report

TUE 3:00 NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (MAY)
TUE 6:15 CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (MAY)
TUE 8:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate (JUN) 101.2 101.5
TUE 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (APR)
TUE 11:00 CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)
TUE 11:00 CAD Bank Canada CPI Core (YoY) (MAY)
TUE 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (APR) 7.1% 7.6%
TUE 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (JUN) 6.20M 5.77M
TUE 14:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (MAY) 0.3% 0.3%
TUE 14:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUN A) -19 -18
TUE 22:45 NZD Current Account Balance (NZD) (JUN 20) -0.250B -3.574B
TUE 22:45 NZD Current Account Deficit-GDP Ratio (1Q) -2.7% -2.9%
WED 7:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing (JUN A) 58.0 58.4
WED 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Services (JUN A) 55.9 56.2
WED 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (JUN A) 55.3 55.8
WED 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Composite (JUN A) 55.8 56.4
WED 8:30 GBP Bank of England Meeting Minutes

WED 12:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)
WED 14:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (MAY) -14.7% 14.8%
WED 14:00 USD New Home Sales (MAY) 430K 504K
WED 18:15 USD FOMC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
WED 22:45 NZD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q) 0.5% 0.8%
WED 22:45 NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q) 1.8% 0.4%
WED 23:50 JPY Adj.Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (MAY) 626.8B 729.1B
WED 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (MAY) 36.5 40.4
THU 0:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index (APR)
THU 9:00 EUR EU Industrial New Orders s.a. (MoM) (APR) 1.6% 5.2%
THU 12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MAY) -1.2% 2.9%
THU 22:45 NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (MAY) 767M 656M
THU 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) -1.1% -1.2%
THU 23:30 JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY) -1.3% -1.5%
THU 23:30 JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY) -1.6% -1.6%
FRI 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (1Q T) 3.0% 3.0%
FRI 12:30 USD Personal Consumption (1Q T) 3.5% 3.5%
FRI 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (1Q T) 1.0% 1.0%
FRI 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure q/q 0.6% 0.6%
FRI 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JUN F) 75.5 75.5

Starting off with GDP, New Zealand will announce Q1 2010 Gross Domestic Product this week, with expectations for 1.8% growth year on year (vs 0.40% in Q4 2009), and 0.5% growth QoQ as it continues its gradual economic recovery. The other main GDP release this week is from the US, with the third estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis expected to show an annualised quarterly growth rate of 3.00% (or 0.75% quarter on quarter), see the previous US Q1 GDP estimate.

Moving on to CPI, Canada is set to release its May CPI numbers, with the previous figure showing year on year growth of 1.8%, and the Bank of Canada beginning the rate tightening cycle, it's clear inflation is not dead in Canada. Japan on the other hand is expected to show yet another month of deflation, with the main index expected to show -1.1% year on year. Keeping with inflation and monetary policy, the US Federal Open Market Committee is to announce its interest rate decision this week, which will likely be more of the same - no changes in tone or policy expected. Elsewhere in monetary policy the Bank of England will release its recent meeting minutes this week.

On the international flows front there's trade balances due from Japan (expecting a slight drop, but still a large surplus), and New Zealand (expecting a slight pick up into further surpluses). There's also the current account data from the EU for April, and New Zealand for Q1, with expectations for further improvement in the current account deficit, and the current account deficit to GDP ratio projected to shrink further (however as noted previously, much of the current drivers are cyclical in nature).

As for the rest, the notables are US existing home sales (slight improvement), and new home sales (slight decline), US durable goods orders (slight decline), and a couple which will be particularly interesting in the current backdrop; Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence, and Purchasing Managers Index data for June (with both expected to post slight declines). And of course as noted previously there's the G-20 Summit Meeting in the weekend (in Canada), which will now be able to discuss other things given that the Chinese aptly played their cards with an ambiguous commitment to enhanced flexibility of the Yuan or Renminbi.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, stay tuned for updates...

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