Saturday, June 12, 2010

Economic Calendar - 14 June 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 14th of June 2010. This week there's an inflation check in with CPI results due from the UK, EU, and US. There's also an update on industrial production with Japan, the Euro Zone, and the US all expected to report. On the monetary policy front there's Japan and Switzerland scheduled to announce their policy decisions this week, and Australia with the RBA meeting minutes. Elsewhere there's US housing starts and current account balance, leading indicators from the US, Canada, China, and Australia, and New Zealand house prices and consumer confidence.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
MON 4:30 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (APR F)
MON 9:00 EUR EU Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (APR) 0.5% 1.3%
MON 22:00 NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (MAY)
CNY CB Leading Index m/m
JPY Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10%
TUE 1:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes

TUE 8:30 GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) 3.5% 3.7%
TUE 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) (1Q)
TUE 12:30 USD Import Price Index (YoY) (MAY) 7.8% 11.1%
WED 0:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (APR)
WED 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) (MAY F) 1.6% 1.6%
WED 12:30 USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) 4.9% 5.5%
WED 12:30 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (MAY) -3.3% 5.8%
WED 12:30 USD Housing Starts (MAY) 650K 672K
WED 13:15 USD Industrial Production (MAY) 0.8% 0.8%
THU 3:00 NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (JUN)
THU 7:15 CHF Industrial Production (QoQ) (1Q)
THU 7:30 CHF Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
THU 8:30 GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAY) 0.1% 0.1%
THU 12:30 USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) 2.0% 2.2%
THU 12:30 USD CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (MAY) 0.9% 0.9%
THU 12:30 USD Current Account Balance (1Q) -$120.0B -$115.6B
THU 14:00 USD Leading Indicators (MAY) 0.4% -0.1%
THU 23:50 JPY Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes

FRI 8:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (MAY) 18.0B 10.0B
FRI 8:30 GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (MAY) 20.8B 8.8B
FRI 12:30 CAD Leading Indicators (MoM) (MAY)

Starting off with industrial production, the EU is expected to report industrial production up 0.50% in April vs previous 1.2%, the US is expected to show flat growth at 0.80%, and Japan is expected to improve slightly in April from its 31.8% year on year figure (albeit of a low comparator period) in March. Overall industrial production is starting to expand again around the world, albeit at a subdued pace (with the exception of emerging markets). But risks remain, and China reported a slightly lower growth figure for industrial production in May, though to early to call a turn it does point out the vulnerabilities.

On the inflation front we're due to see Consumer Price Index stats from EU, UK, and US, with all of these countries expected to show relatively subdued inflation at present (with the exception of the UK, which has seen the impact of tax changes lift the inflation rate). The EU is expected to show a year on year inflation rate of 1.6% in May, flat vs 1.6% in April, the UK, is expected to show 3.5% in May vs 3.7% in April, and the US is expected to see slightly slower again with 2.0% vs 2.2% in April. These are the places where inflation is not currently a risk; in contrast to other healthier developed economies, and emerging markets.

On the monetary policy front Japan is due to announce its decision this week, with the usual no change at 0.10%, but this will be one to watch for any other moves, given the economic and political backdrop. The Swiss National Bank is also due to announce its decision, with consensus picking no change at 0.25%. There will also be meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which announced a pause to its tightening at 4.50% last meeting.

The other interesting releases due this week include leading indicators from the US, China, Canada, and Australia, these will be interesting to monitor in gauging the outlook for the recovery. The US also has Q1 current account due out with consensus for -$120b vs -$115.6b in Q4 2009; showing an unwinding of the cyclical contraction; the US will also report on housing starts, with expectations for a slight drop-off in May. On the housing front, New Zealand will also see REINZ housing market stats released, and an update to consumer confidence figures - both of interest in the context of the 25bp interest rate increase by the RBNZ there last week.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, stay tuned for updates...

Forex Pros
Forex Factory
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

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