Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 14th of June 2010. This week there's an inflation check in with CPI results due from the UK, EU, and US. There's also an update on industrial production with Japan, the Euro Zone, and the US all expected to report. On the monetary policy front there's Japan and Switzerland scheduled to announce their policy decisions this week, and Australia with the RBA meeting minutes. Elsewhere there's US housing starts and current account balance, leading indicators from the US, Canada, China, and Australia, and New Zealand house prices and consumer confidence.
(More commentary follows the table)
|MON||4:30||JPY||Industrial Production (YoY) (APR F)||31.8%|
|MON||9:00||EUR||EU Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (APR)||0.5%||1.3%|
|MON||22:00||NZD||REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (MAY)||-0.4%|
|MON||CNY||CB Leading Index m/m||1.1%|
|TUE||JPY||Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision||0.10%||0.10%|
|TUE||1:30||AUD||Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes|
|TUE||8:30||GBP||Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)||3.5%||3.7%|
|TUE||9:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) (1Q)||-0.2%|
|TUE||12:30||USD||Import Price Index (YoY) (MAY)||7.8%||11.1%|
|WED||0:30||AUD||Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (APR)||0.9%|
|WED||9:00||EUR||Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) (MAY F)||1.6%||1.6%|
|WED||12:30||USD||Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)||4.9%||5.5%|
|WED||12:30||USD||Housing Starts (MoM) (MAY)||-3.3%||5.8%|
|WED||12:30||USD||Housing Starts (MAY)||650K||672K|
|WED||13:15||USD||Industrial Production (MAY)||0.8%||0.8%|
|THU||3:00||NZD||ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (JUN)||126|
|THU||7:15||CHF||Industrial Production (QoQ) (1Q)||6.4%|
|THU||7:30||CHF||Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Decision||0.25%||0.25%|
|THU||8:30||GBP||Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAY)||0.1%||0.1%|
|THU||12:30||USD||Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)||2.0%||2.2%|
|THU||12:30||USD||CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (MAY)||0.9%||0.9%|
|THU||12:30||USD||Current Account Balance (1Q)||-$120.0B||-$115.6B|
|THU||14:00||USD||Leading Indicators (MAY)||0.4%||-0.1%|
|THU||23:50||JPY||Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes|
|FRI||8:30||GBP||Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (MAY)||18.0B||10.0B|
|FRI||8:30||GBP||Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (MAY)||20.8B||8.8B|
|FRI||12:30||CAD||Leading Indicators (MoM) (MAY)||0.9%|
Starting off with industrial production, the EU is expected to report industrial production up 0.50% in April vs previous 1.2%, the US is expected to show flat growth at 0.80%, and Japan is expected to improve slightly in April from its 31.8% year on year figure (albeit of a low comparator period) in March. Overall industrial production is starting to expand again around the world, albeit at a subdued pace (with the exception of emerging markets). But risks remain, and China reported a slightly lower growth figure for industrial production in May, though to early to call a turn it does point out the vulnerabilities.
On the inflation front we're due to see Consumer Price Index stats from EU, UK, and US, with all of these countries expected to show relatively subdued inflation at present (with the exception of the UK, which has seen the impact of tax changes lift the inflation rate). The EU is expected to show a year on year inflation rate of 1.6% in May, flat vs 1.6% in April, the UK, is expected to show 3.5% in May vs 3.7% in April, and the US is expected to see slightly slower again with 2.0% vs 2.2% in April. These are the places where inflation is not currently a risk; in contrast to other healthier developed economies, and emerging markets.
On the monetary policy front Japan is due to announce its decision this week, with the usual no change at 0.10%, but this will be one to watch for any other moves, given the economic and political backdrop. The Swiss National Bank is also due to announce its decision, with consensus picking no change at 0.25%. There will also be meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which announced a pause to its tightening at 4.50% last meeting.
The other interesting releases due this week include leading indicators from the US, China, Canada, and Australia, these will be interesting to monitor in gauging the outlook for the recovery. The US also has Q1 current account due out with consensus for -$120b vs -$115.6b in Q4 2009; showing an unwinding of the cyclical contraction; the US will also report on housing starts, with expectations for a slight drop-off in May. On the housing front, New Zealand will also see REINZ housing market stats released, and an update to consumer confidence figures - both of interest in the context of the 25bp interest rate increase by the RBNZ there last week.
So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, stay tuned for updates...
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