Sunday, May 30, 2010

Economic Calendar - 31 May 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 31st of May 2010. This week there's more Q1 GDP results from Australia, Canada, Switzerland, and the EU; Australia and Canada also have their central banks meeting to set monetary policy rates this week. Elsewhere there are PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) results due out from China, the EU, UK, and the US. The other key data points are EU retail sales, CPI, and unemployment, and of course nonfarm payrolls in the US (and similar stats in Canada). There's also the G-20 meetings at the end of the week in South Korea.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
MON 1:30 AUD Current Account Balance (AUD) (1Q) -16400M -17459M
MON 3:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (MAY)
MON 5:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (APR) 6.6% -2.4%
MON 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (MAY) 1.7% 1.5%
MON 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (MAY) 0.20 0.23
MON 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (MAY) 100.6 100.6
MON 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAY F) -18 -18
MON 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (MAY) -7 -7
MON 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (MAY) 6 5
MON 9:00 CNY Official Manufacturing PMI 55.5 55.7
MON 10:30 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI
MON 12:30 CAD Quarterly GDP Annualized (1Q) 5.8% 5.0%
TUE 1:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (APR) 0.3% 0.3%
TUE 4:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision 4.50% 4.50%
TUE 5:45 CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q) 1.8% 0.6%
TUE 6:00 EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (APR) -0.7% 2.7%
TUE 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (MAY F) 55.9 55.9
TUE 8:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY) 57.8 58.0
TUE 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (APR) 10.0% 10.0%
TUE 13:00 CAD Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.25%
TUE 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing (MAY) 59.4 60.4
WED 1:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q) 2.6% 2.7%
WED 3:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price (MAY)
WED 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR) 2.6% 0.9%
WED 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (APR)
THU 1:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (APR) -800M -2082M
THU 6:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) 9.6% 10.5%
THU 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI (MAY F) 56.0 56.0
THU 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Composite (MAY F) 56.2 56.2
THU 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (APR) -0.1% -0.1%
THU 14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (MAY) 55.8 55.4
FRI 4:00 USD G-20 meeting in South Korea

FRI 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) (1Q P) 0.2% 0.2%
FRI 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) (1Q P) 0.5% 0.5%
FRI 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q P) 0.3% -0.1%
FRI 11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment (MAY) 20.0K 108.7K
FRI 11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate (MAY) 8.0% 8.1%
FRI 12:30 USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (MAY) 500K 290K
FRI 12:30 USD Unemployment Rate (MAY) 9.8% 9.9%
FRI 14:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (MAY) 59.5 58.7

Starting off the GDP updates, Australia will be an interesting one as the lucky country skirted around the recession with only one quarter of negative growth and has been by far the fastest advanced economy on the monetary policy front. Expectations are for 2.6% year on year growth (2.7% in Q4 2009). The other key GDP updates will be Canada (expected to record a 5.8% annualised quarterly growth rate... or 1.45% if you don't annualize it - and you shouldn't!). There's also updates from Switzerland and the EU - expected to be in line with initial estimates. The other big one that threatens to slip under the radar is India - due out on Monday.

The other main area of interest will be the updates to PMIs in the US (manufacturing and non-manufacturing) the main manufacturing ISM PMI is expected to come in at 59.4 vs 60.4 in April. Another key one to watch will be the Chinese PMI - both the HSBC and CLFP China PMI indices are out this week; the official PMI is expected to come in at 55.5; basically flat on last month of 55.7... but any surprises will need to be watched closely given the backdrop there. The EU is also due to release its activity indexes, and these will be interesting given the fiscal challenges there e.g. Spain losing its AAA rating, and the broader growing risks around sovereign default and the Euro.

On the employment front the US has nonfarm payrolls, and it is widely expected to be a bumper month with consensus forecasts seeing 500k new jobs added (much will be census related), it will be very telling to dig into the details when the release comes out. Canada is also due to release its employment figures and is expected to show a 20k increase. Meanwhile the EU is expected to report the unemployment rate for April as an unchanged 10%.

On the policy front, there's the G-20 meetings in South Korea. These will be interesting to casually monitor to see if they come out with anything tangible, and see what progress they're making on existing initiatives e.g. preventing protectionism, exit strategies, etc. The situation in Europe will no doubt be on the agenda, and the rising tensions with North Korea will no doubt weigh on participants minds. On Monetary policy the RBA is expected to hold fire this time around at 4.50% (as noted previously), meanwhile Canada is expected to become the first G7 country to lift interest rates with a rise of 25 basis points to 0.50% on the cards, as the Canadian economy shows commodity and fiscal responsibility driven resilience...

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, stay tuned for updates...

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