Sunday, May 16, 2010

Economic Calendar - 17 May 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 17th of May 2010. The main event this week is Japanese GDP, due on Wednesday, which will provide a good update the 2nd/3rd largest economy. Other than that it's pretty much inflation week, with CPI and PPI data due out from the UK, EU, US, and Canada; providing a broad developed economy inflation snapshot. On monetary policy there's meeting minutes from the RBA, BoE, and the Fed, and there's the Bank of Japan with its usual interest rate decision on Friday. Elsewhere, there's a few indicators out of the EU (confidence, PMI etc) and Australia, and New Zealand has its budget on Thursday with tax changes expected.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
MON 13:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAR) $50.0B $47.1B
MON 22:45 NZD Producer Prices- Outputs (QoQ) (1Q)
TUE 1:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes

TUE 5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Households (APR) 42 40.9
TUE 8:30 GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) 3.4% 3.4%
TUE 8:30 GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) 2.9% 3.0%
TUE 9:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) 46.5 53
TUE 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) 38 46
TUE 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) 1.5% 1.4%
TUE 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (APR) 0.8% 1.0%
TUE 12:30 USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR) 5.6% 6.0%
TUE 12:30 USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) 0.9% 0.9%
TUE 12:30 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (APR) 3.8% 1.6%
TUE 12:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (APR) -0.7% 7.5%
WED 0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAY)
WED 4:30 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR F)
WED 8:30 GBP Bank of England Meeting Minutes

WED 12:30 USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) 2.4% 2.3%
WED 12:30 USD CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (APR) 1.0% 1.1%
WED 18:00 USD Federal Open Market Committee Minutes

WED 23:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) 1.4% 0.9%
WED 23:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (1Q P) 5.5% 3.8%
THU 2:00 NZD Finance Minister Bill English Delivers Budget

THU 8:30 GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (APR) -0.1% 0.2%
THU 14:00 USD Leading Indicators (APR) 0.2% 1.4%
THU 14:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAY A) -16 -15
JPY Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
FRI 3:00 NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAY)
FRI 7:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing (MAY A) 61.2 61.5
FRI 8:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations (MAY) 103.5 104
FRI 8:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate (MAY) 101.9 101.6
FRI 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Services (MAY A) 55.6 55.6
FRI 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (MAY A) 57.4 57.6
FRI 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Composite (MAY A) 57.2 57.3
FRI 8:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (APR) 10.9B 23.5B
FRI 8:30 GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (APR) 7.0B 25.8B
FRI 11:00 CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) 1.7% 1.4%
FRI 11:00 CAD Bank Canada CPI Core (YoY) (APR) 1.8% 1.7%
FRI 12:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR) 0.0% 0.5%

Starting off with the main event, Japanese GDP is due out Wednesday; the forecasts are for 1.4% quarter on quarter, vs previous growth of 0.9% in Q4 2009. The Japanese economy has been on the rebound recently, driven by the recovery in international trade (thanks to the inventory cycle, and China stimulus). Thus it will be sensible to expect a positive economic growth figure in Q1 2010 for Japan. The main caveat is that Japan has some serious fiscal and deflation problems. On the fiscal front it has one of the highest debt to gdp ratios of the developed nations, and on the deflation front they're still trying hard to kick it back into inflation.

On the inflation front the EU numbers will probably confirm a view of no significant near term inflationary pressure, with core expected to fall and headline expected to be flat. In the UK, there is a real risk of stagflation (well they pretty much already have stagflation - slow growth and high inflation), so those numbers will be interesting. In the US, there is a reasonable degree of risk of inflation pressures rising in the US; particularly if the stimulus exit isn't managed well (i.e. ZIRP for an extended period of time).

In terms of the confidence indicators, the EU PMI and economic sentiment numbers will provide a good insight into how the sovereign debt crisis is affecting the overall sentiment in Europe, and therefore how it may end up playing through to economic activity. Meanwhile with the monetary policy meeting minutes due from the RBA, BoE, and the Fed, this will be a good chance to get into some of the detailed thinking and analysis behind some of the recent policy decisions, and where those economies are at. And in New Zealand the budget announcement will likely see a lowering of personal income taxes, increase in GST, and tightening up of property investment tax loopholes; as well as more spending on science and R&D.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, stay tuned for updates...

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