Sunday, May 9, 2010

Economic Calendar - 10 May 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 10th of May 2010. The main event out this week, and a topical one at that, is Euro Zone GDP for Q1 2010 on Wednesday. Another key set of data will be the monthly update from China on lending, money supply, trade, inflation, industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales. In the retail sales space there's also an update from the US and New Zealand. There's also the Bank of England meeting on Monday, which may be interesting given the Euro context.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous

CNY New Loans

CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 22.1% 22.5%

CNY Trade Balance -0.6B -7.2B
MON 1:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (APR)
MON 6:00 EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (MAR) 14.0B 12.6B
MON 6:00 EUR German Current Account (euros) (MAR) 13.5B 9.1B
MON 8:30 EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAY) -1 2.5
MON 10:00 CNY Consumer Price Index y/y 2.7% 2.4%
MON 10:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 26.1% 26.4%
MON 10:00 CNY Industrial Production 18.5% 18.1%
MON 10:00 CNY Retail Sales y/y 18.2% 18.0%
MON 11:00 GBP Bank of England Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5%
MON 11:00 GBP Bank of England Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B
MON 12:15 CAD Housing Starts (APR) 200.0K 197.3K
MON 22:45 NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (APR)
TUE 8:30 GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR) 0.6% -0.1%
TUE 9:30 AUD 2010-11 Federal Budget Report

TUE 11:30 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (APR)
WED 5:00 JPY Leading Index (MAR P)
WED 6:00 EUR German Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 1.2% -1.7%
WED 6:45 EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 1.4% -0.3%
WED 8:00 EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 0.1% -3.0%
WED 8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change (APR) -20.0K -32.9K
WED 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.2% 0.0%
WED 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 0.5% -2.2%
WED 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR) 1.0% 0.9%
WED 9:30 GBP Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report

WED 11:00 USD Bloomberg Global Confidence (MAY)
WED 12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) (MAR) 1.6B 1.4B
WED 12:30 USD Trade Balance (MAR) -$39.9B -$39.7B
WED 22:30 NZD Business NZ Performance of Mfg Index (APR)
WED 23:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence (APR) 73 72
WED 23:50 JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (MAR)
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (APR)
THU 1:30 AUD Employment Change (APR) 22.5K 19.6K
THU 1:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (APR) 5.3% 5.3%
THU 8:00 EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report

THU 22:00 NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (APR)
THU 22:45 NZD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR) 1.1% -0.6%
THU 22:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q) 0.3% 1.0%
FRI 12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales (APR) 0.3% 1.6%
FRI 12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos (APR) 0.5% 0.6%
FRI 13:15 USD Industrial Production (APR) 0.6% 0.1%
FRI 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAY P) 73.5 72.2

Starting off with the main event, EU GDP, the consensus forecast is for 0.2% q/q vs a previous 0%, while the year on year figures is expected to creep up 0.5% into positive territory vs -0.3% in Q4 2009. Of the big hitters, Germany is expected to show growth at 1.2% vs previous -1.7%, France is expected to grow 1.4% vs -0.3% previous, and Italy 0.1% vs -3.0%. Overall the results will likely be much improved - but given the current backdrop - the improvement could end up being short lived.

The other key one to watch will be the China data, with key monetary, activity, and prices data giving fresh insight into the state of Chinese overheating. The April figures are broadly expected to be roughly in line with the March numbers, but any surprises will be worth noting indeed, especially in the inflation area. New loans will also be interesting to check in the context of the moves taken by the Chinese authorities to clamp down on excessive loan growth.

On the monetary policy front the Bank of England will be meeting to review interest rates and the asset purchase program on Monday. Not that politics should play into central banking, now that the election is over there may be more flexibility for the BoE to make any moves. However, given the concerns about contagion and sovereign risks in the Euro Area, there most certainly wont be any tightening moves.

On that note, it is expected that a group of Finance Ministers from the EU will be establishing a firm agreement for a backstop facility to "...defend the euro, whatever it takes,”. Just what form this takes will be interesting, and will have a huge impact on financial market and economic confidence. If you want proof of that just check last week what happened when the ECB did nothing as fears of contagion grew and the Euro came under attack. These are indeed interesting times.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, stay tuned for updates... and let's be careful out there!

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