Economic Calendar: US GDP, Fed, and Housing

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing 26 April 2010. This week there's monetary policy decisions from the US Fed, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Japan; and sticking with monetary policy; inflation stats are due out for Australia, Germany, Japan, and the EU. Then of course there's the main event: Q1 GDP growth rate for the US, likewise, Canada will put out its February GDP figures. There's also an update on house prices in the US and UK, and the manufacturing PMI from China which is due for release on Friday.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day	Time (GMT)	Code	Event/Release	Forecast	Previous
MON		GBP	Nationwide House Prices	9.7%	9.0%
TUE	14:00	USD	Consumer Confidence	54.00	52.50
TUE	13:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index	1.3%	-0.7%
TUE	1:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence		18.00
TUE	23:50	JPY	Retail Trade	3.6%	4.2%
WED		EUR	German CPI		1.1%
WED	1:30	AUD	Consumer Price Index	2.8%	2.1%
WED	18:15	USD	FOMC Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%
WED	21:00	NZD	RBNZ Interest Rate Decision	2.50%	2.50%
WED	3:00	NZD	NBNZ Business Confidence		42.50
WED	22:45	NZD	Trade Balance		321M
THU	9:00	EUR	Industrial Confidence	(8.00)	(10.00)
THU	23:50	JPY	Industrial Production	31.3%	31.3%
THU	23:50	JPY	Jobless Rate	4.9%	4.9%
THU	23:50	JPY	Consumer Price Index	-1.2%	-1.2%
THU	12:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	442K	456K
FRI	12:30	USD	Gross Domestic Product	3.4%	5.6%
FRI	13:55	USD	U. of Michigan Confidence	71.00	69.50
FRI		JPY	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.10%	0.10%
FRI	12:30	USD	Personal Consumption	3.1%	1.6%
FRI	5:00	JPY	Annualised Housing Starts	0.826M	0.794M
FRI	9:00	EUR	Consumer Price Index	1.5%	1.5%
FRI	9:00	EUR	Unemployment Rate	10.0%	10.0%
FRI	12:30	CAD	Monthly Gross Domestic Product	0.4%	0.6%
FRI	21:00	CNY	Manufacturing PMI	55.70	55.10

On the monetary policy front it's likely to be pretty business as usual for all the banks announcing their decisions this week. Japan is still struggling with deflation, the US wont move until unemployment starts to fall, and New Zealand will likely hold off until June if you believe the consensus, but there are some outliers picking a rise in April - that would move the markets (also there's a contract trading on ipredict for a 25bp increase in the rate that is priced at about $0.04... that's probably about right in terms of probabilities).

On the main event, i.e. US Q1 2010 GDP, the forecast is for 3.4% annualised growth (or to be more accurate, 0.85% growth quarter on quarter, vs 1.4% in Q4 2009). The forecast is probably right in terms of the direction and rough magnitude, the US is currently progressing through the great rebound, but it remains to be seen how sustainable it will turn out to be. Obviously I'll be watching this one closely for any clues in the details that things could really be changing.

Another interesting data point out this week will be Chinese manufacturing PMI, which will be informative in terms of Chinese industrial sector sentiment; the pick is for a small rise. In recent history the index fell into the low 40s around the end of 2008, but recovered above the 50 point expansion mark in early 2010 and has been more or less stable since then; despite a slight hiccup early this year.

Another key bit of data will be the US S&P Case Shiller house price index (the 20 city composite), picked to rise 1.3% year on year, vs previous -0.7%... the housing market in the US was a key factor in the global financial crisis so understandably many people are watching this one intently. Basically what we want to see is the US housing market recovering as this will take at least a little bit of pressure off of some of the vulnerabilities that still remain in that sector of the US economy (and by extension the rest of the US economy...).

Stay tuned for updates...

Sources
DailyFX www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Forex Pros www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
Forex Factory www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

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