Sunday, April 18, 2010

Econ Grapher - Economic Calendar - 19 April 2010

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing 19 April 2010. The key data out this week is UK GDP, New Zealand CPI, Bank of Canada Monetary Policy decision, EU consumer confidence, and US home sales data and durable goods orders. But also on the radar this week is the April 2010 IMF World Economic Outlook (and the IMF Global Financial Stability report, due out the day before) which is always a tremendous resource for global economic analysis (the 3rd and 4th analytical chapters are already up here and look at unemployment dynamics during recessions and recoveries, and transitioning out of sustained current account surpluses). Also in the IMF sphere are the G20 and IMF/World Bank meetings on Friday and Saturday this week.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
MON 22:45 NZD Consumer Price Index 2.3% 2.0%
MON 5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence
TUE 13:00 CAD Bank of Canada i-rate decision 0.3% 0.3%
TUE 8:30 GBP Consumer Price Index 3.2% 3.0%
TUE 1:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes

WED 8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change
WED 8:30 GBP BoE Meeting Minutes

WED 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance 975.4B 649.6B

IMF World Economic Outlook

THU 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone Government Debt-GDP
THU 12:30 USD Producer Price Index 6.1% 4.4%
THU 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales 5.6% -0.6%
THU 14:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (17) (17)
FRI 8:30 GBP Gross Dometic Product Q1 0.4% 0.4%
FRI 12:30 CAD Retail Sales 0.0% 0.7%
FRI 8:00 EUR German IFO Business Climate 98.7 98.1
FRI 11:00 CAD Consumer Price Index 1.6% 1.6%
FRI 12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders 0.1% 0.9%
FRI 14:00 USD New Home Sales 4.6% -2.2%

IMF and G20 Meetings

In some ways the IMF (and G20 meetings) will dominate the headlines this week. The World Economic Outlook will as mentioned be a great resource, and it will be interesting to see what the IMF forecasts for the global economy over the next couple of years. In terms of the meetings exit strategies, trade, global imbalances, financial system reform, tax evasion, and banking regulation. No doubt the EU and US will pull the yuan issue into the meetings too. So while these are usually talk-fests it will be worth reviewing the post-meeting communiqué for anything interesting.

On the economic data front the main even will be UK GDP, some are forecasting year over year growth to approach the zero mark with a second quarter of 0.4% growth. There's also the consumer price index measure of inflation from Canada, UK, and New Zealand - the US also has the producer price index out. All forecasts are for a pick up in inflation, but only marginally; though inflationary pressure is broadly likely to resurface later in the year.

There's also monetary policy decision meeting minutes released by the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia. The BoE report will be somewhat ho-hum, but the RBA report will be well worth a read as the bank brings monetary policy back to neutral. Some RBA officials have noted that the rate is approaching neutral levels after five 25 basis point hikes to 4.25% off the record low emergency settings. Also in monetary policy is the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision; the bank has previously noted it would wait until at least Q2 before raising the rate, it may not be this time, but Canada could be next in line for some tightening.

Stay tuned for updates...

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