Friday, March 26, 2010

Econ Grapher - Economic Calendar - 29 Mar 2010

Here's Economic Calendar for the week commencing 29 March 2010. This week there's a suite of data out of the US that will provide a very interesting and broad insight into the health or otherwise of the recovery. There's also confidence and PMI indicators from a few different countries due for release throughout the week; including China, UK, New Zealand, US, and Japan.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
EUR German CPI
Monday 8:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals 48k 48.2k
Monday 9:00 EUR Consumer Confidence -17 -17
Monday 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure 0.10% 0.00%
Monday 23:30 JPY Industrial Produciton 31.70% 18.50%
Tuesday 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence 50 46
Tuesday 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index 145.5 145.9
Tuesday 8:30 GBP Current Account -5.1B -4.7B
Tuesday 22:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence
Wednesday 23:50 JPY Tankan -8 -18
Wednesday 7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change 8k 7k
Wednesday 12:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product 0.50% 0.60%
Wednesday 5:00 JPY Annualised Housing Starts 0.865M 0.863M
Wednesday 9:00 EUR EU Unemployment Rate 10% 9.90%
Wednesday 9:00 EUR EU CPI estimate 1.10% 0.90%
Wednesday 21:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI 55.2 52
Wednesday 22:30 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday 5:30 CHF KOF Economic Barometer 1.91 1.87
Thursday 14:00 USD ISM Mfg Index PMI 56 56.5
Thursday 6:00 EUR German Retail Sales
Thursday 0:30 AUD Trade Balance -1340M -1175M
Thursday 8:30 GBP PMI Mfg 56.8 56.6
Thursday 0:30 AUD Retail Sales 0.30% 1.20%
Friday 12:30 USD Unemployment Rate 9.70% 9.70%
Friday 12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls 190k -32k

As mentioned the week will be very interesting from a US economy perspective. First up is February Personal Income and Outlays with the consensus for a slight improvement in both income and spending. Then there's Tuesday with S&P Case Shiller house prices for an update on the critical housing market; one to watch closely as the year unfolds as further price falls could trip up the recovery.

Also on Tuesday is the Conference Board with Consumer Confidence, consensus is for a move back to 50; this is an important gauge of consumer spending and perceptions of the economy and future conditions - watch the components.

Another big one this week is the ISM manufacturing PMI. The Purchasing Managers Index is a widely watched gauge of activity in the US and it's individual component indices are useful for detecting trends like inventory rebuilding, prices, international trade, and employment.

Then of course on Friday there's March Non-farm Payrolls. Within this data there's also the unemployment rate, but that figure can bounce around a lot due to movements in the participation rate; the one to watch is job numbers. Consensus estimates are for a reasonable gain in March, and it is reasonably sensible to expect; there's census hiring, a possible deferring of hiring from February due to the poor weather, and general (albeit slow and fragile) improvement in economic conditions.

Elsewhere the PMI figures from China will be interesting to see, as will the UK PMI figures. There's also business and consumer confidence updates from a few countries, so it will be quite an interesting week sentiment-wise.

Stay tuned for updates...

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