UK Prices and Retail Sales - slight improvement?
In the last week or so we had UK inflation data and retail sales. The data for both is monthly so it provides a pretty timely update on the economy of the UK. Both figures came in slighlty better than expected.
CPI - CPI came in at the same year on year % change as in June; showing a leveling off after a few falls and slower growth. This could indicate that fears of deflation can be set aside now. Indeed with all the stimulus in the UK and quantitative easing, it could in fact herald a turnaround in inflation outlook.
RPI - RPI is another price indicator index but includes mortgage payments; thus the large drop off we've see in this one is more about falling interest rates; strip that off and you have a similar story to CPI.
Retail Sales - While typically a volatile figure, we've seen a second month with a positive figure both month on month and year on year. Indeed, looking at the index you can see a slight tracking upwards of the line. This could be an early sign of a pick up in activity in the UK... retail sales is usually a good leading indicator so we'll be watching closely for August figures to confirm.
MONTH ON MONTH % CHANGE
YEAR ON YEAR % CHANGE BY MONTH
MONTHLY INDEX VALUES
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