Sunday, August 16, 2009

EU GDP... V?

Just a slight re-visitation of the previous post... I decided to look at it on a yearly basis; i.e. Q2 09 vs Q208 etc. What came out of the graph works was a decidedly downward trend in growth, with a bit of acceleration in the most recent observations. What this says is that while the quarterly growth recession may look near an end, there's still a wee way to go before things are actually in total looking better. It's like stock prices if you fall from $100 to $50 you need much more than a 50% gain to get back where you came from, and when you're that low it doesn't take much to get what looks like a good gain in % terms.

So not out of the woods yet... if anything (to carry the metaphor) we're almost at the top of the mountain in the woods.. eventually we'll come back down and then get into the woods before we can get out! (though maybe spelunking would bear more apt description than mountaineering!)

-Econ Grapher

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